Munich Re. Hail, tornadoes, flash floods: losses from thunderstorms on the rise. Munich Re https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters/thunderstorms-hail-tornados.html. (2025).
Bevacqua, E., Schleussner, C. & Zscheischler, J. A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. Nat. Clim. Change 15, 262–265 (2025).
Cannon, A. Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold. Nat. Clim. Change 15, 266–269 (2025).
Dessens, J., Berthet, C. & Sanchez, J. Change in hailstone size distributions with an increase in the melting level height. Atmos. Res. 158, 245–253 (2015).
Lin, Y. & Kumjian, M. R. Influences of CAPE on hail production in simulated supercell storms. J. Atmos. Sci. 79, 179–204 (2022).
Dennis, E. J. & Kumjian, M. R. The impact of vertical wind shear on hail growth in simulated supercells. J. Atmos. Sci. 74, 641–663 (2017).
Raupach, T. H. et al. The effects of climate change on hailstorms. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 213–226 (2021).
Brimelow, J. C., Burrows, W. R. & Hanesiak, J. M. The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 516–522 (2017).
Raupach, T. H. & Aldridge, J. Changes in hail damage potential in major Australian cities with global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2025GL117676 (2025).
Trapp, R. J., Hoogewind, K. A. & Lasher-Trapp, S. Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 32, 5493–5509 (2019).
Gensini, V. A. et al. Hailstone size dichotomy in a warming climate. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 7, 185 (2024).
Thurnherr, I., Cui, R., Velasquez, P., Wernli, H. & Schär, C. The effect of 3°C global warming on hail over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2025GL114811 (2025).
Kahraman, A., Kendon, E. J., Fowler, H. J. & Short, C. J. Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms. Nat. Commun. 16, 8438 (2025).
Zhang, Q. et al. Climate impacts and future trends of hailstorms in China based on millennial records. Nat. Commun. 16, 8000 (2025).
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Marchio, M. & Brooks, H. E. Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 4, 35 (2021).
Trapp, R. et al. Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 19719–19723 (2007).
Rädler, A. T. et al. Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 2, 30 (2019).
Allen, J., Karoly, D. & Walsh, K. Future Australian severe thunderstorm environments. Part II: the influence of a strongly warming climate on convective environments. J. Clim. 27, 3848–3868 (2014).
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Scherer, M. & Trapp, R. J. Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 16361–16366 (2013).
Prein, A. F. & Heymsfield, A. J. Increased melting level height impacts surface precipitation phase and intensity. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 771–776 (2020).
Kunz, M. et al. The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on 28 July 2013: characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 144, 231–250 (2018).
Allen, J. T. et al. Understanding hail in the Earth system. Rev. Geophys. 58, e2019RG000665 (2020).
Changnon, S. A. Increasing major hail losses in the U.S. Clim. Change 96, 161–166 (2009).
Mallinson, H., Lasher-Trapp, S., Trapp, J., Woods, M. & Orendorf, S. Hailfall in a possible future climate using a pseudo–global warming approach: hail characteristics and mesoscale influences. J. Clim. 37, 527–549 (2024).
Trapp, R. J., Woods, M. J., Lasher-Trapp, S. G. & Grover, M. A. Alternative implementations of the “pseudo-global-warming” methodology for event-based simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, 2021JD035017 (2021).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
Martín, M. L. et al. Major role of marine heatwave and anthropogenic climate change on a giant hail event in Spain. Geophys. Res. Lett. 51, e2023GL107632 (2024).
Lackmann, G. M. Hurricane Sandy before 1900 and after 2100. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 547–560 (2015).
Zhang, S. et al. How are large hailstones produced in five distinct potential severe hailstorm environments? J. Atmos. Sci. 82, 1217–1236 (2025).
Adams-Selin, R. D. et al. Evolution of WRF-HAILCAST during the 2014–16 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments. Weather Forecast. 34, 61–79 (2019).
Leslie, L. M., Leplastrier, M. & Buckley, B. W. Estimating future trends in severe hailstorms over the Sydney Basin: a climate modelling study. Atmos. Res. 87, 37–51 (2008).
Lepore, C., Abernathey, R., Henderson, N., Allen, J. T. & Tippett, M. K. Future global convective environments in CMIP6 models. Earth’s Future 9, e2021EF002277 (2021).
Adams-Selin, R. The quasi-stochastic nature of hail growth: hail trajectory clusters in simulations of the Kingfisher, Oklahoma, hailstorm. Mon. Weather Rev. 153, 67–87 (2024).
Zhou, Z., Zhang, Q., Allen, J. T., Ni, X. & Ng, C.-P. How many types of severe hailstorm environments are there globally? Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2021GL095485 (2021).
Brennan, K. P., Thurnherr, I., Sprenger, M. & Wernli, H. Insights from hailstorm track analysis in European climate change simulations. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 25, 3693–3712 (2025).
Chen, J., Dai, A., Zhang, Y. & Rasmussen, K. L. Changes in convective available potential energy and convective inhibition under global warming. J. Clim. 33, 2025–2050 (2020).
Fraile, R., Castro, A., López, L., Sanchez, J. & Palencia, C. The influence of melting on hailstone size distribution. Atmos. Res. 67, 203–213 (2003).
Xie, B., Zhang, Q. & Wang, Y. Observed characteristics of hail size in four regions in China during 1980–2005. J. Clim. 23, 4973–4982 (2010).
Mahoney, K., Alexander, M. A., Thompson, G., Barsugli, J. J. & Scott, J. D. Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado’s mountains. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 125–131 (2012).
Tinney, E. N., Homeyer, C. R., Bedka, K. M. & Scarino, B. R. The response of tropopause-overshooting convection over North America to climate change. J. Clim. 37, 6183–6200 (2024).
Botzen, W. J. W., Bouwer, L. M. & van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. Climate change and hailstorm damage: empirical evidence and implications for agriculture and insurance. Resour. Energy Econ. 32, 341–362 (2010).
Li, M., Zhang, D.-L., Sun, J. & Zhang, Q. A statistical analysis of hail events and their environmental conditions in China during 2008–15. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 57, 2817–2833 (2018).
Hoogewind, K. A., Baldwin, M. E. & Trapp, R. J. The impact of climate change on hazardous convective weather in the United States: insight from high-resolution dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 30, 10081–10100 (2017).
Sanderson, M. et al. Projected changes in hailstorms during the 21st century over the UK. Int. J. Climatol. 35, 15–24 (2014).
Ni, X., Liu, C., Cecil, D. J. & Zhang, Q. On the detection of hail using satellite passive microwave radiometers and precipitation radar. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 56, 2693–2709 (2017).
Bang, S., Scarino, B., Itterly, K., Bedka, K. & Cecil, D. Challenges in satellite remote sensing of hail: evaluating IR and passive-microwave satellite hail retrievals using aqua observations and a deep neural network. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 64, 2037–2058 (2025).
Andrews, M. et al. Climatology of the elevated mixed layer over the contiguous United States and northern Mexico using ERA5: 1979–2021. J. Clim. 37, 1833–1851 (2024).
Hersbach, H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020).
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Brooks, H., Pilguj, N. & Czernecki, B. Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 102, 296–322 (2021).
Taszarek, M. et al. Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 with rawinsonde data over Europe and North America. J. Clim. 34, 3211–3237 (2021).
Döscher, R. et al. The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Geosci. Model Dev. 15, 2973–3020 (2022).
Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
MacCready, P. B. Jr & Takeuchi, D. M. Precipitation initiation mechanisms and droplet characteristics of some convective cloud cores. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 7, 591–602 (1968).
Dennis, A. S. & Musil, D. J. Calculations of hailstone growth and trajectories in a simple cloud model. J. Atmos. Sci. 30, 278–288 (1973).
English, M. in Alberta Hailstorms. Meteorological Monographs Vol. 14, 37–98 (American Meteorological Society, 1973).
Blumberg, W. G. et al. SHARPpy: an open-source sounding analysis toolkit for the atmospheric sciences. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, 1625–1636 (2017).
Gopalakrishnan, D., Cuervo-Lopez, C., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J. & Robinson, E. A comprehensive evaluation of biases in convective storm parameters in CMIP6 models over North America. J. Clim. 38, 947–971 (2025).
Grieser, J. & Hill, M. How to express hail intensity—modeling the hailstone size distribution. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 58, 2329–2345 (2019).
Heymsfield, A. et al. CORRIGENDUM. J. Atmos. Sci. 77, 405–412 (2020).
Heymsfield, A., Szakáll, M., Jost, A., Giammanco, I. & Wright, R. A comprehensive observational study of graupel and hail terminal velocity, mass flux, and kinetic energy. J. Atmos. Sci. 75, 3861–3885 (2018).
Zhang, Q., Ni, X. & Zhang, F. Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years. Sci. Rep. 7, 42310 (2017).
Schaefer, J. T. & Edwards, R. The SPC tornado/severe thunderstorm database. In Preprints, 11th Conf. on Applied Climatology 6.11 (American Meteorological Society, 1999).
Paulikas, M. Examining population bias relative to severe thunderstorm hazard reporting trends in the Atlanta, GA metropolitan region. Meteorol. Appl. 21, 494–503 (2014).
Li, X. et al. Climatology of hail frequency and size in China, 1980–2015. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 57, 875–887 (2018).
Zhang, S. Data for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios. figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30103471 (2026).
Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 1). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18152366 (2025).
Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 2). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18161078 (2025).
Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 4). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18168495 (2026).
Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 3). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18246083 (2026).
Zhang, S. Code for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios. figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30103474 (2026).

