Sarojini, B. B., Stott, P. A. & Black, E. Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 669–675 (2016).
Zhang, W., Zhou, T. & Wu, P. Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century. Science 385, 427–432 (2024).
Zhang, X. et al. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448, 461–465 (2007).
Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Phillips, A. S. Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 775–779 (2012).
Vicente-Serrano, S. M. et al. High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation. Nature 639, 658–666 (2025).
Blackport, R. & Fyfe, J. C. Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe. Sci. Adv. 8, eabn3112 (2022).
Smith, D. M. et al. Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude. Nat. Clim. Change 15, 403–410 (2025).
Simpson, I. R. et al. Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations. Sci. Adv. 11, eadt8035 (2025).
Allen, M. R. & Ingram, W. J. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419, 224–232 (2002).
Swain, D. L., Langenbrunner, B., Neelin, J. D. & Hall, A. Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 427–433 (2018).
de Vries, H., Lenderink, G., van der Wiel, K. & van Meijgaard, E. Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change. Clim. Dyn. 59, 2871–2886 (2022).
Zhang, X., Wang, J., Zwiers, F. W. & Groisman, P. Y. The influence of large-scale climate variability on winter maximum daily precipitation over North America. J. Clim. 23, 2902–2915 (2010).
Brönnimann, S. et al. Past hydroclimate extremes in Europe driven by Atlantic jet stream and recurrent weather patterns. Nat. Geosci. 18, 246–253 (2025).
Deser, C., Hurrell, J. W. & Phillips, A. S. The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections. Clim. Dyn. 49, 3141–3157 (2017).
Smith, D. M. et al. North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature 583, 796–800 (2020).
Müller, W. A. & Roeckner, E. ENSO impact on midlatitude circulation patterns in future climate change projections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L05711 (2006).
Chemke, R. & Yuval, J. Human-induced weakening of the Northern Hemisphere tropical circulation. Nature 617, 529–532 (2023).
Shaw, T. A. et al. Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward. Front. Clim. 6, 1391634 (2024).
McKenna, C. M. & Maycock, A. C. The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for projections of winter mean precipitation in Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2022GL099083 (2022).
Visbeck, M. H., Hurrell, J. W., Polvani, L. & Cullen, H. M. The North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present, and future. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 98, 12876–12877 (2001).
Shepherd, T. G. Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat. Geosci. 7, 703–708 (2014).
Guo, R., Deser, C., Terray, L. & Lehner, F. Human influence on winter precipitation trends (1921–2015) over North America and Eurasia revealed by dynamical adjustment. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 3426–3434 (2019).
Sippel, S. et al. Uncovering the forced climate response from a single ensemble member using statistical learning. J. Clim. 32, 5677–5699 (2019).
Joshi, M. M., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., Sexton, D. M. H. & Johns, T. C. Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change. Clim. Dyn. 30, 455–465 (2008).
Miyawaki, O., Shaw, T. A. & Jansen, M. F. Quantifying energy balance regimes in the modern climate, their link to lapse rate regimes, and their response to warming. J. Clim. 35, 1045–1061 (2022).
Seneviratne, S. I. et al. Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth-Sci. Rev. 99, 125–161 (2010).
Merrifield, A., Lehner, F., Xie, S.-P. & Deser, C. Removing circulation effects to assess central U.S. land-atmosphere interactions in the CESM large ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 9938–9946 (2017).
Brogli, R., Sørland, S. L., Kröner, N. & Schär, C. Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 114017 (2019).
Fereday, D., Chadwick, R., Knight, J. & Scaife, A. A. Atmospheric dynamics is the largest source of uncertainty in future winter European rainfall. J. Clim. 31, 963–977 (2018).
Scaife, A. A. & Smith, D. A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 1, 28 (2018).
Schurer, A. P., Ballinger, A. P., Friedman, A. R. & Hegerl, G. C. Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 104026 (2020).
Carruthers, J. G., Fowler, H. J., Bannister, D. & Guerreiro, S. B. Dynamical adjustment reveals spatial patterns of wetting and drying in European winter precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 114085 (2025).
Lenderink, G. et al. Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 29, 1201–1220 (2025).
Rodgers, K. B. et al. Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability. Earth Syst. Dyn. 12, 1393–1411 (2021).
Dai, A. & Bloecker, C. E. Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models. Clim. Dyn. 52, 289–306 (2019).
Deser, C., Terray, L. & Phillips, A. S. Forced and internal components of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: mechanisms and implications. J. Clim. 29, 2237–2258 (2016).
Deser, C. & Phillips, A. S. A range of outcomes: the combined effects of internal variability and anthropogenic forcing on regional climate trends over Europe. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 30, 63–84 (2023).
Wehrli, K., Guillod, B. P., Hauser, M., Leclair, M. & Seneviratne, S. I. Assessing the dynamic versus thermodynamic origin of climate model biases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 8471–8479 (2018).
Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W. A., Li, C. & Marotzke, J. Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes. Clim. Dyn. 54, 4351–4366 (2020).
Pfahl, S., O’Gorman, P. A. & Fischer, E. M. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 423–427 (2017).
Tuel, A. & Eltahir, E. A. B. Why is the Mediterranean a climate change hot spot? J. Clim. 33, 5829–5843 (2020).
Singh, J., Sippel, S. & Fischer, E. M. Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe. Commun. Earth Environ. 4, 432 (2023).
Egli, M., Humphrey, V., Sippel, S. & Knutti, R. A distinct role for aerosol and GHG forcing in historical CMIP6 evapotranspiration trends. Earths Future 12, e2024EF004973 (2024).
Maher, N. et al. The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences. Earth Syst. Dyn. 14, 413–431 (2023).
Chou, C. & Lan, C.-W. Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming. J. Clim. 25, 222–235 (2012).
Jiang, J. et al. Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air. Nature 623, 544–549 (2023).
Emori, S. & Brown, S. J. Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L17706 (2005).
Seager, R. et al. Recent and near-term future changes in impacts-relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world’s Mediterranean climate regions. Int. J. Climatol. 44, 3792–3820 (2024).
Doane-Solomon, R., Woollings, T. & Simpson, I. R. Dynamic contributions to recent observed wintertime precipitation trends in Mediterranean-type climate regions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2024GL114258 (2025).
Weisheimer, A. et al. The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 105, E651–E659 (2024).
Hersbach, H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020).
Japan Meteorological Agency. Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q). NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research https://doi.org/10.5065/AVTZ-1H78 (2023).
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. & Lister, D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020).
Schneider, U., Hänsel, S., Finger, P., Rustemeier, E. & Ziese, M. GPCC Full Data Monthly Product Version 2022 at 2.5°: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historical Data (2022); https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V2022_250.
Beck, H. E. et al. Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 23, 207–224 (2019).
Gelaro, R. et al. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). J. Clim. 30, 5419–5454 (2017).
Kistler, R. et al. The NCEP–NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 247–268 (2001).
Jones, P. D., Jonsson, T. & Wheeler, D. Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1433–1450 (1997).
Rayner, N. A. et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108, 4407 (2003).
Wills, R. C. J., Battisti, D. S., Armour, K. C., Schneider, T. & Deser, C. Pattern recognition methods to separate forced responses from internal variability in climate model ensembles and observations. J. Clim. 33, 8693–8719 (2020).
Pfleiderer, P. et al. Considerable yet contrasting regional imprint of circulation change on summer temperature trends across the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Weather Clim. Dyn. 7, 89–108 (2026).
Zou, H. & Hastie, T. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 67, 301–320 (2005).
Sippel, S. et al. Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations. Nature 635, 618–624 (2024).
Bony, S., Dufresne, J.-L., Le Treut, H., Morcrette, J.-J. & Senior, C. On dynamic and thermodynamic components of cloud changes. Clim. Dyn. 22, 71–86 (2004).
Sheather, S. J. & Jones, M. C. A reliable data-based bandwidth selection method for kernel density estimation. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Methodol. 53, 683–690 (1991).
Hardiman, S. C. et al. Missing eddy feedback may explain weak signal-to-noise ratios in climate predictions. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 5, 57 (2022).
Gu, L. Nudged CESM2 simulations used in “Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation”. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19150219 (2026).

