NBA Draft college withdrawal deadline winners and losers after 2026’s biggest decisions

The NIL has completely reshaped the NBA Draft. Fewer underclassmen are turning pro each year with millions now available at the college level, and in turn it’s transformed the late-first and second round of the draft into a field of seniors who exhausted their eligibility and international players who may have no immediate plans of coming over.

The 2026 NBA Draft college withdrawal deadline was always going to have major ramifications for both the depth of this class and next year’s college landscape. There was a long list of players with fascinating stay-or-go decisions this year, and the deadline gave us a few surprises. In many cases, the money in college is better than getting picked in the 20s in the first-round, and in almost every case, NIL dollars are significantly bigger than second-round contracts. How is the NBA supposed to compete?

With the college withdrawal deadline now passed, here are the biggest winners and losers from the stay and go decisions.

Loser: NBA teams picking in the mid 20s or later

NBA Draft classes are typically evaluated based on the talent available with the top picks. Under that framework, the 2026 draft class is still very strong, with Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson forming a ‘big four’ that could rival that fantastic production out of the 2025 draft’s top-five. If you’re assessing this class through all 60 picks, though, the NIL really cut out quite a bit of depth.

Where does the talent fall off in this draft? I’m going to say around pick No. 24 or No. 25. I really like Stanford’s Ebuka Okorie, Santa Clara’s Allen Graves, and Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson as players potentially available in the early 20s. I’m less enthused about using a first-round pick on Duke’s Isaiah Evans, UConn’s Tarris Reed and Alex Karaban, or Louisville’s Ryan Conwell.

Don’t get it twisted: there will still be a few second-round steals in this year’s draft, as there is every year. Some undersized senior or older big man will beat expectations, and I like Tennessee guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Arkansas forward Travon Brazile, and Virginia center Ugonna Onyenso as names to watch there. But when 5+ potential first-round picks head back to college for an NIL bag, it’s hard to think this draft class still has the overall talent level it could have a couple months ago.

Tyler Tanner was one of the very best players in college basketball as a sophomore at Vanderbilt. He had a lot of fans online who liked his NBA projection, but apparently fewer working in league front offices. Tanner withdrew from the draft at the deadline, and now looks like one of the five best players in college hoops entering his junior season next year. As it happens, Vanderbilt suddenly has dreams of making the Sweet 16 — or maybe even a deeper run.

There’s not 15 men’s college basketball teams I’m taking over this crew entering the season:

I had Tanner as a late first-round pick in my ‘what I would do’ mock draft. The draft’s class’ loss is Vanderbilt’s gain.

Tounde Yessoufou was considered a potential lottery pick entering his freshman year at Baylor this past season. The 6’5 wing had a solid freshman campaign, but questions about his shooting and playmaking would have potentially made him a second-round pick. The money was always going to be better in college for a player projected in that range with (at least) three years of eligibility remaining, and Yessoufou indeed chose to return to college.

When he withdrew from the draft, Yessoufou also announced he was transferring to St. John’s. He feels like the final piece of what should be a top-10 team — and maybe even a top-5 team — in the preseason polls.

There are some questions in the middle for the Johnnies, but this roster is stacked with talent. Rick Pitino is on the brink of his 74th birthday, and badly wants one more Final Four run. This team gives him a chance to do it now that Yessoufou is on board.

If Yessoufou shows any progression in his three-point shot or his creation ability, he could be a top-20 pick in a weaker 2027 NBA Draft.

This one sort of cuts both ways with nerd darling Tyler Tanner going back to college. That’s okay, because Allen Graves’ decision to stay in the draft is a massive win for the analytics community.

Graves was Santa Clara’s pudgy sixth man who was addicted to fouling all year. He also happens to be one of the great defensive playmakers you will ever see in college basketball while also hitting 40 percent of his threes. Graves’ nearly 10 percent stock rate (steal rate + block rate) is special stuff when combined with his fantastic rebounding and floor spacing ability. He was first surfaced as a real NBA prospect by some sharp young minds on Twitter, and the NBA liked him enough to convince him to stay in the draft.

Graves should be picked in the 20s of this draft, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he sneaks into the end of the teens.

Koa Peat had the most intriguing stay-or-go decision in this year’s draft class. The freshman forward looked like a no-brainer one-and-done after a brilliant opening game against Florida, but he couldn’t maintain that level of production throughout the year. His busted three-point shot was a major cause for concern, and it had most people thinking he would come back for his sophomore season. Instead, Peat is keeping his name in the draft, and it counts as a pretty big blow for his Wildcats.

Arizona is still going to be really good. I would have had teammate Motiejus Krivas ranked ahead of Peat if both entered, but Krivas is going back to the Wildcats, where he should be the best defensive center in college basketball next year. Arizona also has potential top 2027 draft pick Caleb Holt coming in on the wing, and they’re bringing back Ivan Kharchenkov for his sophomore season.

Arizona is loaded again even without Peat, but they would have been better with him.

Winner: Milan Momcilovic and his suitors

Momcilovic was the best high-volume shooter in college basketball this past season, canning 54.5 percent of his three-pointers on 14.4 attempts per 100 possessions from deep. I liked the 6’7 wing as an early second-round pick, but he was always going to make way more money in college. It’s not a surprise that he returned.

Kentucky is desperate for Momcilovic after a terrible offseason. Arizona could use him to replace Peat. Louisville would love to steal him from Mark Pope.

I bet Momcilovic is making more than $6 million next season in college, which means he would have had to be a lottery pick to make the same money in the NBA. The NIL era has been very good to players exactly like him.

Loser: NBA teams who wanted to draft these guys in the first-round

I would have had a potential first-round draft grade on all of these players this year, but instead they chose to return to college:

These players would have been priority second-rounders in the 2026 draft, but also decided to return to college:

College basketball is striking back against the NBA. The real winner? All the players who are cashing in on their athletic prime.