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HomeSportsWorld Cup 2026: What are the scenarios for Group A?

World Cup 2026: What are the scenarios for Group A?

The first full week of the FIFA 2026 World Cup is in the books. Every team has played a match, and starting Thursday we will begin the second round of games for each nation.

And some teams can already clinch a spot in the knockout round.

Here are the scenarios for Group A heading into Thursday’s matches.

What are the Group A standings?

Here are the current Group A standings, ahead of matches on Thursday, June 18:

Team

W

D

L

GF

GA

GD

Points

Mexico 1 0 0 2 0 2 3
South Korea 1 0 0 2 1 1 3
Czechia 0 0 1 1 2 -1 0
South Africa 0 0 1 0 2 -1 0

What are the next Group A matches?

Here is the rest of the Group A schedule, starting with today’s matches.

Czechia vs. South Africa
Mexico vs. South Korea

South Africa vs. South Korea
Czechia vs. Mexico

What are the current scenarios for Group A?

Here are the scenarios for each team heading into play on Thursday, June 18.

With three points and a goal differential of +2, Mexico currently leads the way in Group A. They can clinch the group — and guarantee a match against a third-place team from Group C, E, F, H, or I in the Round of 32 — if they defeat South Korea, and Czechia either draws or loses to South Africa.

As we will see in a moment, even Mexico beats South Korea, they are not guaranteed to win Group A if Czechia defeats South Africa.

Similar to Mexico, South Korea can win Group A on Thursday and line up a match in the Round of 32 against a third-place team. They can do that with a win over Mexico, provided South Africa draws or loses to Czechia.

South Africa faces elimination on Thursday. With a loss to Czechia, they would be eliminated from the Round of 32 if South Korea wins or draws against Mexico. In that scenario, Mexico would have three points, South Korea would have four or more, and Czechia would have three. South Africa would be locked into a last-place finish in the group even with a win in the final match against South Korea due to tiebreakers.

Czechia is in a similar position to South Africa. With a loss to South Africa, and a Mexico win or tie against South Korea, they will be eliminated from knockout route contention.

As mentioned above, tiebreakers may come into play here. So is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year.

If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.

In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.

If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.

If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.

That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams. That brings us to the scenarios above, and we will use Mexico for the illustration. Say Mexico defeats South Korea on Thursday, but Czechia defeats South Africa. That would put Mexico at the top of the group with six points, while both South Korea and Czechia would have three.

With Mexico facing Czechia in the group stage finale, that first tiebreaker could see a scenario where a Czechia win means they take the group. Say Czechia wins, and South Korea and South Africa finish in a tie. Czechia and Mexico would both have six points, but that first tiebreaker would mean Czechia wins the group, as they secured the “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” by winning the head-to-head match with Mexico for three points.

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