If the WNBA playoffs started today, we’d be in store for four riveting first-round series. The league-best Minnesota Lynx would face the surging Washington Mystics. The reigning champions, Las Vegas Aces, would face the New York Liberty. Gabby Williams and the Golden State Valkyries would host Angel Reese and the Atlanta Dream. And Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever would battle Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings.
Here’s how the first round would stack up, and my way-too-early predictions for who will emerge victorious.
#1 Minnesota Lynx (25-6) vs #8 Washington Mystics (16-12)
The Lynx will be heavily favored in this match-up, though the Mystics have won 4 straight and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Minnesota has been led by Rookie of the Year shoo-in Olivia Miles, as well as a supporting cast that includes Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, and Natasha Howard.
On top of that, Napheesa Collier is back from double ankle surgeries that sidelined her for most of the season. Minnesota has won 10 straight games and have outscored opponents by an average of 9.3 points per game this season.
The Mystics, therefore, face an uphill climb in the first round. Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen, and Sonia Citron have all had big-time seasons, but all three have very limited playoff experience (Austin played two postseason games in 2022, while Iriafen and Citron did not make the playoffs as rookies). Washington will be happy to get playoff experience for their young core, but this is a formidable first-round assignment. The two teams have split their regular season series so far, and both games came down to the wire.
Another fun wrinkle? Former Notre Dame guards Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron would be squaring off.
Tentative Prediction: Lynx in 2
#2 Las Vegas Aces (21-9) vs #7 New York Liberty (18-13)
Few could have projected that the Aces and Liberty would square off in the first round. The two teams faced off in the 2023 Finals, with Las Vegas emerging victorious, and then again in the 2024 Semi-Finals, with New York coming out on top en route to their franchise-first championship.
But New York has had a down year and unexpectedly slipped to the 7th-best record in the league under first-year head coach Chris DeMarco. It still could all come together. New York has been better since Leonie Fiebich’s return, and Sabrina Ionescu is finally healthy. But Breanna Stewart needs more from her supporting cast — whether that’s more consistency from former MVP Jonquel Jones, better shooting from Ionescu, or more from the bench.
The Aces have won three titles in the last four seasons, and while they haven’t had a perfect season, A’ja Wilson continues to play some of the best basketball of her career while the championship backcourt of Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray continues to thrive.
New York beat Las Vegas in the Commissioner’s Cup, but that was with Wilson sidelined, so it’s hard to know how much of what worked then would carry over to a postseason matchup. The Aces and Liberty split the other two matchups.
Tentative Prediction: Aces in 3
#3 Golden State Valkyries (21-9) vs #6 Atlanta Dream (18-11)
The Valkyries swept their season series against the Dream over the span of a week, beating them three times as part of Atlanta’s season-worst 5-game losing streak. Was that just a bad week at work for the Dream, or a sign of potential trouble to come in a postseason matchup?
Angel Reese has been a revelation for Atlanta, and Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray were both All-Stars, again. But will they be able to muster up a play style in the playoffs they couldn’t find in the regular season matchup?
Golden State, meanwhile, has been a powerhouse. But will their offensive woes catch up to them in a slowed-down playoff environment? The Valkyries have been elite defensively, but don’t quite have the go-to scoring options that other teams of their caliber do.
Tentative Prediction: Valkyries in 3
#4 Dallas Wings (19-11) vs #5 Indiana Fever (19-11)
This matchup would feature three of the most electric guards in the league in Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, and Kelsey Mitchell. Plus, No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd has had an underrated rookie campaign.
Both the Wings and the Fever have had good seasons, and would make for a star-studded first-round matchup if current standings hold come playoff time. This would be an offensive battle, as both teams have some defensive deficiencies. It will also be the first time Bueckers laces up for playoff action (Clark played two playoff games in her rookie season, but was sidelined in her sophomore campaign).
The Wings and Fever faced off on Opening Day, with the Wings walking away with a 3-point victory. They haven’t faced off since, so it’s anybody’s guess how things would fare come September.
Tentative Prediction: Fever in 3
