The 2026 FIFA World Cup has been amazing thus far, and it’s also been weird. Juggernauts have struggled against competition they should have strolled past easily, while the USMNT looks legitimate after dismantling Paraguay in one of their biggest cup wins of all time. Now they face Australia on Friday night in what’s become one of the more fascinating games of the early group stage. Largely written off before the cup began, Australia made a statement in their opener by stunning Türkiye 2-0, showing that they weren’t going to be pushed around.
Now these two sides face off in Seattle to determine who can take control of Group D. With an explosive striker on each side of the pitch there’s a high potential for fireworks on Friday night.
The key for the USMNT vs. Australia
It comes down to the United States’ prolific attack potential through Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun. Balogun scored twice in the opener against Paraguay, and it has set him up to be one of the talks of the tournament. At this point, we all know what Pulisic can bring to the table, both as a scorer in his own right — but also as the ultimate decoy offensive threat with a profound ability to drop the ball to a teammate.
The biggest struggle for Pulisic historically has been this ever-present pall that’s pressured him to do too much himself. This feast-or-famine approach has failed more often than not, but this time around he has legitimate talent around him to willingly step into being the second or third option, or in Balogun’s case, oftentimes the first. It’s allowed Pulisic to play more freely, and much more akin to his role inside the AC Milan lineup where he’s a piece of the puzzle, rather than the entire picture.
Mauricio Pochettino’s high press, aggressive style has really suited this attack well. The speed and athleticism the USMNT can bring on the counter attack is profound, and that is the heart of this game.
On the defensive side, it’s all about stopping Nestory Irankunda. The 20-year-old Australian striker is one of the most interesting young players in international football, who feels like he’s on course to become a household name with a major club. Irankunda is lightning with the ball on his feet, using an array of dribbling techniques to either beat his mark outright, or frustrate them enough into costly penalties. The USMNT need to bracket and contain Irankunda from making runs, which is what Türkiye struggled to do in their game vs. the Aussies.
The key for Australia vs. the USMNT
It might be reductive to simply invert the script and say “stop Pulisic and Balogun,” but that’s the name of the game. The wrinkle Australia adds to this matchup is both the experience of their defensive players, as well as a familiarity edge the Socceroos have. This team has played a longer time together, and rather than seeing much of their talent spread across Europe, there are more clusters of Aussies who spend time together on club teams.
There’s also the veteran leadership of Matthew Ryan in goal. The 34-year-old was unflappable in the opener as he kept a clean sheet, and it’s rare that he gets baited into bad decision-making.
The interplay of Pochettino’s press and Australian coach Tony Popopvic’s central defensive block will be the key to the tactical side of the game. Australia loves to swarm the middle and generate turnovers before turning it into counter-attack. This means the USMNT will likely need to play a little more conservatively than they did against Paraguay, lest they open up opportunities for Irankunda in the open field.
It’s difficult to bet against the USMNT based purely on the amount of talent they bring to the table and the team speed. The ability to work off the edges and mitigate the Australian defensive block will be more successful than Türkiye was able to manage in the opener.
Balogun can and will have another big game, with Pulisic being the engine that makes it all happen. It won’t be a blowout, but another convincing win for USA.
USMNT beats Australia, 2-0
