April 15, 2026
In 2025, 104 million taxpayers received refunds in comparison to roughly 70 million filers that have already received tax returns ahead of the April 15 deadline.
Data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) show an increase in the average tax refund, up 11% to $3,462 in 2025, CBS News reports.
Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank, says taxpayers can thank provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” for the increase in refunds.
“Aggregate refunds are up, average refunds are up, and clearly millions, if not tens of millions, of taxpayers are claiming one of the new deductions,” Lautz said.
In 2025, 104 million taxpayers received refunds, compared with roughly 70 million filers who had already received tax returns ahead of the April 15 deadline. The IRS will continue to distribute refunds after Tax Day, but Lautz claims the expectation is for the average refund size to remain steady.
The increase shouldn’t come as much of a shock to tax experts, as investment bank Piper Sandler made projections in early 2026 that tax refunds would increase by as much as $1,000. Piper Sandler’s deputy head of U.S. policy, Don Schneider, referred to the larger amount as a “hypothetical maximum,” all contingent on all filers getting a refund.
With the $106 billion in tax relief from the controversial legislation, Schneider thinks the benefits won’t just be in the form of tax refunds but also in lower amounts people owe to the IRS.
“If we’re just going to fixate on the refunds themselves or the average size, we’re going to miss half of the story,” he said. “So we need to look at the reduction in taxes that people otherwise owe. And all of this is suggestive of tax relief probably being stronger than expected when we consider more overtime, more tips, etc.”
With higher refunds on average, Republicans pinpoint some of President Donald Trump’s signature policies as the reason why, including new deductions for tip income, overtime earnings, seniors and auto loan interest, according to CNBC.
There has been an increase in people taking advantage of the elimination of federal income taxes on tips and overtime, with a third of 1,200 Bipartisan Policy Center survey respondents saying they received tipped income, overtime pay, or both.
But the rising cost of gas at the pumps has threatened the cause for celebration, as the refunds are being spent on necessities. Economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research project that the average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year, due to a global increase in oil prices, which is double the average increase in refund sizes so far this year.
Last-minute filers can still benefit from hefty refunds. Those who claim the federal deduction limit for state and local taxes, known as SALT, could lift average payments. Trump’s legislation raised the SALT limit to $40,000 from $10,000, allowing larger payments for eligible filers who itemize deductions.
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