How the USMNT copes without Folarin Balogun against Belgium

How nice of VAR to overshadow one of the most important results in U.S. men’s national team history on Wednesday…

The USMNT advanced to the 2026 World Cup Round of 16 after defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina, but lost standout striker Folarin Balogun for the match against Belgium after a 64th-minute red card. Balogun scored the game-winning goal near the end of the first half and has been one of, if not the best USMNT player this tournament.

We can all debate until the cows come home whether or not it was the “right” decision, application of VAR, what have you, but the end result remains the same: Mauricio Pochettino must make a change if the host nation is to advance.

The Argentine has already cemented himself as the most successful USMNT coach in World Cup history picking up his third victory of the tournament, but he’ll really earn his money if he plays his cards right in the next round. Pochettino has multiple options at his disposal, but how exactly should the USMNT set up against the Red Devils?

Given form, there isn’t an option on the bench currently that naturally fills Balogun’s absence. He’s got three goals in three appearances so far and has been a crucial focal point in multiple phases.

The other out-and-out No. 9s are:

Pepi’s received significantly more playing time (185 minutes) after starting the dead rubber against Türkiye. Wright, after a standout season for Coventry City, has only played a minute so far coming on as a substitute deep into second half stoppage time against Australia.

Diving deeper into their numbers from last season:

Pochettino seems to trust Pepi more this tournament, though Wright has received opportunities in previous international windows. If he doesn’t want to alter his tactical setup wholesale, Pepi and Wright likely receive significant minutes against Belgium. Whoever he goes with first must impose themselves physically as Balogun has done, which might give the edge to Wright.

The benefit to choosing either, though, is that the rest of the team remains unchanged.

Part of what’s made the USMNT so dynamic this far is the threat of Christian Pulisic and Sergiño Dest out wide with Antonee Robinson and Alex Freeman over/underlapping at will on the left and right respectively.

Pochettino could push Pulisic further forward, trusting his most talented attacker to hold up and link play at will while providing some box presence. Replacing Pulisic out wide could be:

Or, if Pochettino wants a similar dynamic on the left that he has on the right with Dest and Freeman, Max Arfsten could come in. However, the Columbus Crew wingback has not played a single minute so far.

Reyna has played the most of those options, and could provide a difference cutting in on his favored right foot. He has the technical capability to play with both feet, but likely won’t stretch a backline as much as Weah could with his pace.

Having Pulisic up top replaces Balogun’s game-changing ability, but upsetting the balance on the wings could end up having a detrimental effect on the team’s build-up play. One factor, that might end up pushing this option over the line is an conscious decision to try and nullify both Jérémy Doku and Leandro Trossard early.

If Pochettino trusts one of his wide players to contribute defensively, then we might see Pulisic up top.

Could Malik Tillman get the nod up top?

The Leverkusen midfielder prefers to play in the 10, he likes linking play and being the one to start attacking play. His technical quality on the ball is even a step up on Balogun, though he lacks the same box presence of the other wide and center forwards previously discussed. The USMNT will have to make the most of their possession, and having a difference maker on the ball to get Pulisic and Dest more involved in the attacking third could be the exact answer.

The trade off here is… what’s the natural change in midfield then?

Reyna could play behind Tillman, but we haven’t seen that pairing under Pochettino. Weston McKennie could also play further forward. The Juventus man, who has been one of the USMNT’s best players during the World Cup, can provide the late runs into the box as Tillman serves as a focal point to play through. He’s shown the ability to influence the game in multiple phases, but would need to be a decisive, consistent box-to-box presence all game. If that’s the path chosen, Sebastian Berhalter likely comes into the side forming a double pivot with Tyler Adams.

While the Vancouver Whitecaps midfielder is adept at set pieces, using most of your midfield depth early wouldn’t give Pochettino options off the bench.

Overall, Pochettino likely sticks with most of his team as is and chooses between Pepi or Wright. No matter who starts, both players will have short leashes if things don’t get off to a good start. Belgium represents the USMNT’s toughest opposition both on paper and in the FIFA rankings this tournament. The Red Devils have the individual quality advantage on paper in multiple areas, making Pochettino’s selection all the more important.

The idea of a dynamic front line with Reyna, Tillman, Pulisic and Dest is certainly exciting, but excitement won’t get the USMNT past Belgium. Their opposition has shown resiliency, coming back from 0-2 down late against Senegal to earn their spot despite an underwhelming performance for the majority of the game.

Rudi Garcia also isn’t afraid to make big calls taking off Kevin De Bruyne and Doku early in the second half in the Round of 32. No matter what decision Pochettino makes, it will be the defining selection of the USMNT’s knockout stage.