Iran’s top diplomat declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for all commercial ships Friday morning after Israel and Lebanon came to a 10-day ceasefire.
In a social media post, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said the Hormuz strait would be open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, noting that vessels would have to use an Iranian-designated route to pass through. That route runs closer to Iran’s coast.
Another senior Iranian official later told Reuters that ships looking to pass through must still coordinate with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy to gain permission to transit.
President Donald Trump showed enthusiasm over the announcement, declaring in his own social media post that the conduit was “ready for business and full passage.” The commander in chief said the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and the country’s coastline will remain in full force until negotiations to end its nuclear ambitions were “100 percent complete.”
Multiple follow-up posts on Truth Social indicated that Iran was removing mines at the bottom of the strait, “with the help of the U.S.A.” and that the Islamic republic agreed to “never close the Strait of Hormuz again.” Trump’s claims have not been verified.
The president then told Bloomberg that Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and that talks over a lasting agreement to end the war will “probably” be held this weekend. Iran has not confirmed these claims.
Araghchi’s comments haven’t alleviated uncertainty within the container shipping industry quite yet, with ocean carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd having diverging takes on whether a return is feasible yet.
“The safety of our crew, vessels and customers’ cargo remains our priority,” said Maersk in a Friday update. “Since the outbreak of the conflict, we have followed the guidance of our security partners in the region, and the recommendation so far has been to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
According to Maersk, any decision to transit the strait will be based on risk assessments and close monitoring of the security situation.
“We are now beginning to assess the new situation and the risks involved. For the time being, therefore, we are still refraining from passing through the strait,” a Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson told Reuters.
After holding a crisis committee meeting, the company later pulled an about-face. The spokesperson said Hapag-Lloyd would like to transit the strait “as soon as possible” once outstanding matters were resolved, including insurance coverage and the sequence of ships leaving. Hapag-Lloyd also is seeking clarity from the Iranian government and military on the exact sea corridor to sail through.
“This is good news,” the Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson said. “There are still some open questions on our end, but they might be resolved within the next 24 hours.”
The owners of the cargo being moved on container vessels traversing Middle Eastern service loops may not be quick to reaccelerate volumes.
“Retailers are unlikely to rush in immediately,” said Nishith Rastogi, CEO of transportation management system solution provider Locus, in comments provided to Sourcing Journal.
“If these corridors remain open, we could see downward prices begin within a few weeks, particularly for fuel-linked goods,” Rastogi said. “However, consumer price impacts may take longer as existing higher-cost inventory works its way through the system.”
The announcement came a day after Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) saw its first weekly decline since the start of the Iran war, snapping a six-week rally.
The WCI fell 3 percent week-over-week to $2,246 per 40-foot container, with Asia-to-Europe and Asia-to-U.S. transits both declining at the same rate.
Spot rates from Shanghai to New York and Los Angeles decreased 3 percent to $3,552 and $2,810 per container, respectively.
During a briefing on Wednesday, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors’ managing director Philip Damas had said there was an opening for lower rates even if the Hormuz strait remained under threat from Iranian forces.
“For us looking ahead, we expect that a competition between carriers and forwarders will drive these cost rates down,” said Damas. However, Drewry does not expect that competition to bring those prices down to pre-conflict levels.
The lack of demand in the weeks after the war began has essentially forced carriers to offer discounts in April, with Drewry noting that nine blanked sailings were announced on trans-Pacific lanes for next week to maintain capacity.
The past week’s drop in freight rates could continue in the weeks ahead if Iran commits to free passage through the Hormuz.
In the two hours after Araghchi’s announcement at 8:45 a.m. Eastern Time, crude oil futures sank nearly 9 percent to as low as $79.23 per barrel.
The constricted traffic through the channel, which typically sees 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas supply sail through daily, had sent oil prices skyrocketing since the start of the war—pressuring freight rates upward across ocean and air.
As the situation continues to play out, some doubt remains regarding the state of the strait, particularly with more Iranian parties voicing their opposition to the messaging
Multiple Iranian state-run news agencies affiliated with the IRGC issued criticism of Araghchi’s comments and Iran’s negotiating team after he announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Tasnim News Agency described the post as a “bad and incomplete tweet that created misleading ambiguity about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”
Mehr News called Araghchi’s tweet “the best opportunity for Trump to go beyond reality, declare himself the winner of the war and celebrate victory.”
