Hoka remains the key growth engine at parent company Deckers Brands, according to Wall Street analysts.
“Our topline growth forecast reflects 8.3 percent growth at Hoka, a 5.0 percent increase across Ugg, and a 35.0 percent drop in the Other brands group (primarily Teva),” said Dana Telsey, chief investment officer at Telsey Advisory Group (TAG), regarding first quarter results that are slated to post Thursday after the markets close.
And while Deckers’ management in the fourth quarter guided first quarter earnings per share (EPS) between 82 cents and 87 cents, Telsey said EPS could come in at between 90 cents versus 93 cents a year ago.
Moreover, management continues to forecast low double-digit revenue growth for Hoka in fiscal year 2027, “supported by ongoing product innovation, expanding international awareness, continued direct-to-consumer strength,” and launches such as the Clifton 11, the TAG analyst said. In contrast, Ugg continues to diversity into a year-round lifestyle brand, expected to deliver mid-single digit growth as its 365 strategy gains traction through newer franchises and an expansion into footwear categories beyond boots. Telsey also noted increasing adoption of the brand among younger consumers and men. She also expects gross margin to be in the range of 56.5 percent, below fiscal year 2026 levels as “higher tariffs, freight, transportation, and input costs more than offset continued full-price selling and favorable channel mix.”
Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser also expects a first quarter beat “likely on Hoka strength,” helping Deckers to exceed both guidance and consensus expectations. He noted that some Clifton 10s remain in the marketplace as the Clifton 11 launched, adding that Hoka’s e-commerce sales have benefited from promotion of the Clifton 10 leading up to the early July launch of Clifton 11.
Poser also expects that in either the first or second quarter, Deckers will account for the $120 million — or $92 million net of taxes — of IEEPA tariff refunds. “Some portion of the refund will be used to repay some of Decker’s partners that shared the cost of the IEEPA tariffs. Given that, as of March 31, 2026, Deckers had over $1.9 billion of cash on its balance sheet, it appears likely that any IEEPA refunds will be used for share repurchases,” the analyst said.
Poser also expressed confidence that Hoka’s franchise management “will continued to drive positive sales and margin growth. The distribution of Clifton and Bondi, Hoka’s largest franchises, continue to be segmented by upper color, and material, so both runners and more casual users appreciate the comfort and performance features of the shoes regardless of the end use.”
Poser also didn’t foresee any surprise for the Ugg brand, noting that the brand’s business “remains very strong in teen retail, major department stores, and athletic specialty.” He also expects that second quarter Ugg revenue goes up, led by wholesale. He explained that Ugg took in many goods early in order to de-risk a potential tariff increase, and that “Ugg’s wholesale partners are likely being encouraged to take their fall and holiday orders in early, and are being given better payment terms to do so.”
BNP Paribas Equity Research’s senior analyst Laurent Vasilescu said Deckers “remains one of the best-in-class operators with the strongest double digit growth in EPS and drives more cash flow than Nike on an LTM (last twelve months) equivalent basis.”
But Vasilescu did note two possible overhangs on the stock, one is connected to El Niño if North America has a very warm winter as that could impact Ugg revenues and the other is whether Deckers’ U.S. direct-to-consumer channel can “lap the easy compares from last year’s challenges of the Bondi and Clifton transition, which will end next month.” He also expects Hoka to beat first quarter guidance.
