Birkenstock is expected to post third quarter revenue growth of 13 percent next Thursday, but will that trend continue into the fourth quarter or will the brand see headwinds ahead?
Thus far, proprietary data from UBS in a May survey showed that Birkenstock shoes remain a shopper favorite in Europe, based on credit card, debit card and account bank transactions that track consumer spending. That data point showed Birkenstock sales up 1 percent year-over-year. And even on a two-year stack, Birkenstock was on the leader board, ranking high with consumers.
When the brand posted second quarter results in May, Birkenstock chief executive officer Oliver Reichert said brand health and momentum was “very strong” at 90 percent full-price sell-through. The German footwear brand addresses a wide range of price points. And while its core clog business is what the brand is best known for, its expanded closed-toe line continues to resonate with consumers. At the time, Reichert said the company wasn’t seeing any sales slowdown in the second half of fiscal 2026.
Telsey Advisory Group’s (TAG) chief investment officer Dana Telsey is expecting revenue growth for the quarter of 13 percent to 717.8 million euros, just above the consensus estimate of 714.5 million euros. The company projected revenue growth of 13 percent to 15 percent in constant currency for fiscal year 2026, which sets an expectation for the same range for the third and fourth quarters. The company, which operates under a scarcity model for how it manages distribution of product, also said it wasn’t expecting any sequential deceleration trends.
“As consumers remain intentional with their purchases, we see Birkenstock as a brand that can continue to win in the marketplace through its competitive advantage of a high-end lifestyle positioning but at accessible price points, supported by its proprietary foot bed that provides solutions for its customers,” Telsey concluded.
BTIG’s Janine Stichter, managing director and consumer retail and lifestyle brands analyst, expects revenue growth of 12.8 percent. She expects the management to reiterate its fiscal ’26 outlook.
“While our overall checks remain healthy, we continue to monitor slight upticks in advertised promos, which we believe have been strategic in support of direct-to-consumer (DTC) growth,” Stichter said. She also noted that web traffic accelerated meaningfully within the quarter, which likely can be attributed to a focus on strategic “members only-discounts.” And with other footwear firms, including Steve Madden, noting that consumers want casual alternatives beyond sneakers, “we view [that] as a positive for Birkenstock,” Stichter said.
The BTIG analyst also sees as a plus, which she said remains under-appreciated, the “quality of Birkenstock’s distribution network, which allows wholesale to serve as a key customer acquisition vehicle and a highly profitable extension of its own DTC business.”
William Blair’s Sharon Zackfia expects revenue growth at the lower end of company guidance, meaning closer to the 13 percent range, noting also the potential impact of languishing consumer sentiment and war-related disruptions in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa). The APAC (Asia Pacific) region is expected to lead revenue growth by a high-20 percent increase, with EMEA decelerating to low-double-digit growth from 10.5 percent in the second quarter as the impact of spiking energy prices on consumer confidence and geopolitical pressure in the Middle East take their tolls.
She cited as key risks for the brand includes higher markdowns should Birkenstock’s brand soften in key markets (offset somewhat by movement of product to underserved regions such as APAC) and intense competition from copycat products that are often at lower prices.
Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser expressed concern that the brand “may be losing its premium positioning.”
He raised the concern that “consumers may be losing their sense of urgency, and the need to buy goods at full price in Europe, and perhaps even in the U.S.” While he doesn’t foresee any risk to fiscal year 2026 results, “[we] are a bit concerned about fiscal year 2027,” Poser said.
Poser pointed to the 27 Zalando country websites, noting that as of July 28, there is an average of 589 style/colorways of Birkenstock footwear. “On average, 197 of those styles, or 32.3 percent of the total, are on sale,” he noted. “Regardless of what Birkenstock is directly selling to Zalando, the number of styles, and the promotional activity, is worrisome,” he said.
And while other retailers that include Journeys, Nordstrom, Shoe Carnival, DSW, Harrods and others also sell the brand, many of those styles are at a discount. And Poser noted that Birkenstock might have produced too many narrow width footwear for its women’s market, citing to an over supply of narrow width shoes in both the U.S. and Europe.
Meanwhile, the German footwear brand continues to innovate on its offerings. Last week, it teamed up again for the second time with South Korean label Ader Error on a range of footwear as part of Birkenstock’s ultra-premium, high-fashion 1774 line featuring luxury designer collaborations. This followed the reveal of collaborations with Sacai and Repetto. And separately, Danielle Frankel joined forces with Birkenstock earlier this year for a unique line of wedding shoes.
