Monday, May 18, 2026
No menu items!
HomeNatureAre we about to face a ‘super’ El Niño?

Are we about to face a ‘super’ El Niño?

You have full access to this article via your institution.

Hello Nature readers, would you like to get this Briefing in your inbox free every day? Sign up here.

A firefighter walks in front of the flames of a forest fire on the ground in the Brasilia National Forest region in Brazil.

Wildfires ravaged forests in Brazil in 2024, in the wake of the last El Niño, when the country experienced a record drought.Credit: Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty

The strongest El Niño weather patterns in recent decades are forecasted later this year, which could bring floods, droughts and high temperatures. But it’s still uncertain whether winds and other weather factors will either ratchet up ocean heat or temper it — and therefore weaken the possibility of a strong El Niño. Forecasters should know more in the coming weeks, once they get past the notorious ‘spring predictability barrier’.

Nature | 7 min read

A genetic analysis has found inconsistencies between the reported names and the actual genetic make up of 47% of lab-mouse strains distributed globally. The mismatches have the potential to compromise the integrity of mouse studies and undermine their conclusions, say scientists. “This study is another wake-up call for biomedical research. If we don’t fully understand the genetics of the mice we’re using, we risk misinterpreting how diseases actually work,” says immunologist Daniel Rawle.

Nature | 5 min read

Reference: Science paper

146,932

The number of bogus, AI-hallucinated citations found in an audit of 2.5 million papers and preprints published in 2025 — with the highest proportion in social-science preprints. (Nature | 7 min read)

Reference: arXiv preprint (not peer reviewed)

A review by Cochrane, an influential group renowned for its gold-standard medical reviews, suggests that testing for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) “likely reduces the risk of dying” from prostate cancer. The number of lives saved is small, the group found, but the latest finding still marks a reversal of Cochrane reviews published in 2006 and 2013. The most recent findings were driven in part by data from two new trials, encompassing 250,000 people, and extra years of data from four older trials.

Nature | 6 min read

Reference: Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews paper

The US National Institutes of Health has a US$47-billion budget this year — but not the staff that they need to spend it. Many staff members called grants management specialists (GMSs), who handle the administrative aspects of issuing grants, either resigned or were laid off in 2025 by the administration of President Donald Trump as it sought to downsize the federal workforce. The GMS shortage has forced NIH employees to prioritize approving and distributing funds for already-existing grants, which they have a legal obligation to pay out over a certain timeframe, over reviewing new ones.

Nature | 7 min read

Question of the week

Should researchers post their raw data sets on open-access databases now that AI algorithms are known to scrape these resources as training fodder? Some want tighter controls to prevent misuse of data, while others argue openness still matters and restrictions won’t stop bad actors anyway. Please take our short survey to tell us what you think. Some responses might be considered for publication in a Nature news story.

Take the survey

New US$1 million mental-health research prize

More than one billion people worldwide — around one person in seven — are estimated to live with a mental-health condition, notes a Nature editorial. But many people with mental illness struggle to access the treatment, care or support that they need.

Wellcome, in partnership with Nature, is announcing a prize for mental-health research to boost recognition of the field and its potential to change lives for the better. The Wellcome Prize for Mental Health Science with Nature will award US$1 million to an overall winner for developing innovative strategies, treatments or support mechanisms that deliver measurable improvements in mental-health outcomes. Three further finalists will receive $250,000 each. The winner will be announced next June.

At the award announcement yesterday, actor David Harewood — who has written candidly about his mental illness — noted that “mental health knows no borders”, and the prize welcomes applications from around the world.

Features & opinion

A truck-stop server finds their ticket out of town in The futile beauty of flightless birds and a woman struggles to discern which thoughts are really hers in Serebral.

Nature | 6 min read & Nature | 6 min read

To battle antibiotic resistance, researchers are leaving no stone unturned and harnessing AI to find new antibiotics. Nature filmmaker Nick Petrić Howe went to a remote graveyard in Northern Ireland in the pouring rain to learn how one researcher discovered a source of antibiotic-producing bacteria closer to home — at the grave of a faith healer.

Nature | 19 min video

This editorially independent video is part of Nature Outlook: Antimicrobial resistance, a supplement produced with financial support from Meiji Seika Pharma.

Quote of the day

Sociologist Jamie Lewis and his colleague Andrew Bartlett interviewed more than 130 people who seek the mythical creature Bigfoot (plus a few academics) to explore the hinterlands of legitimate scientific practice. (The Conversation | 12 min read)

Today Leif Penguinson is investigating the Turtle Stone in Sete Cidades National Park in Piauí, Brazil. Can you find the penguin?

The answer will be in Monday’s e-mail, all thanks to Briefing photo editor and penguin wrangler Tom Houghton.

This newsletter is always evolving — tell us what you think! Please send your feedback to [email protected].

Thanks for reading,

Flora Graham, senior editor, Nature Briefing

With contributions by Jacob Smith

Nature Briefing: Careers — insights, advice and award-winning journalism to help you optimize your working life

Nature Briefing: Microbiology — the most abundant living entities on our planet — microorganisms — and the role they play in health, the environment and food systems

Nature Briefing: Anthropocene — climate change, biodiversity, sustainability and geoengineering

Nature Briefing: AI & Robotics — 100% written by humans, of course

Nature Briefing: Cancer — a weekly newsletter written with cancer researchers in mind

Nature Briefing: Translational Research — covers biotechnology, drug discovery and pharma

RELATED ARTICLES

Most Popular

Recent Comments