Thursday, June 18, 2026
No menu items!
HomeNatureEmergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise

Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise

  • Noble, T. L. et al. The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: past, present, and future. Rev. Geophys. 58, e2019RG000663 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Cook, A. J. & Vaughan, D. G. Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years. Cryosphere 4, 77–98 (2010).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Walker, C. C. et al. Multi-decadal collapse of East Antarctica’s Conger–Glenzer Ice Shelf. Nat. Geosci. 17, 1240–1248 (2024).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fox-Kemper, B. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 9 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

  • Oppenheimer, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 126 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2019).

  • DeConto, R. M. et al. The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nature 593, 83–89 (2021). This study applies the MICI mechanism to project Antarctic Ice Sheet contributions to sea-level rise under Paris Agreement emissions scenarios, providing high-end estimates that have become central to planning for worst-case outcomes.

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Otosaka, I. N. et al. Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 15, 1597–1616 (2023).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Weertman, J. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. J. Glaciol. 13, 3–11 (1974).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Nye, J. F. The response of glaciers and ice-sheets to seasonal and climatic changes. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Math. Phys. Sci. 256, 559–584 (1960).

    ADS 
    MathSciNet 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Pattyn, F. The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling. Nat. Commun. 9, 2728 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Robel, A. A., Roe, G. H. & Haseloff, M. Response of marine-terminating glaciers to forcing: time scales, sensitivities, instabilities, and stochastic dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 123, 2205–2227 (2018). This study establishes the theoretical basis for reservoir time as a fundamental timescale governing how marine-terminating glaciers respond to external forcing, a concept this paper demonstrates is a robust and emergent feature across ISMIP6 models.

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Seroussi, H. et al. ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century. Cryosphere 14, 3033–3070 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Seroussi, H. et al. Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty. Cryosphere 17, 5197–5217 (2023).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Seroussi, H. et al. Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble. Earths Future 12, e2024EF004561 (2024). This study presents the ISMIP6 Antarctic model ensemble used as the primary dataset in this study, making it an essential reference for interpreting the results.

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Coulon, V. et al. Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model. Cryosphere 18, 653–681 (2024).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A. & Lenaerts, J. Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L05503 (2011).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fricker, H. A. et al. Antarctica in 2025: drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss. Science 387, 601–609 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bassis, J. & Walker, C. C. Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from the yield strength envelope of ice. Proc. R. Soc. A 468, 913–931 (2011).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L. & Siegfried, M. R. Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves. Nat. Geosci. 13, 616–620 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Smith, B. et al. Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes. Science 368, 1239–1242 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Badgeley, J. A., Morlighem, M. & Seroussi, H. Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 122, e2411904122 (2025).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Choi, Y., Petty, A., Felikson, D. & Poterjoy, J. Estimation of the state and parameters in ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter and Observing System Simulation Experiments. Cryosphere 19, 5423–5444 (2025).

  • Goldberg, D. N. & Heimbach, P. Parameter and state estimation with a time-dependent adjoint marine ice sheet model. Cryosphere 7, 1659–1678 (2013).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Beckmann, J. et al. Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections. Preprint at EGUsphere https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069 (2025).

  • Brondex, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F. & Gagliardini, O. Sensitivity of centennial mass loss projections of the Amundsen Basin to the friction law. Cryosphere 13, 177–195 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Sun, S. et al. Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP). J. Glaciol. 66, 891–904 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Yu, H., Rignot, E., Seroussi, H. & Morlighem, M. Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws. Cryosphere 12, 3861–3876 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Dow, C. F., Ross, N., Jeofry, H., Siu, K. & Siegert, M. J. Antarctic basal environment shaped by high-pressure flow through a subglacial river system. Nat. Geosci. 15, 892–898 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ehrenfeucht, S., Dow, C., McArthur, K., Morlighem, M. & McCormack, F. S. Antarctic wide subglacial hydrology modeling. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2024GL111386 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Pelle, T., Greenbaum, J. S., Dow, C. F., Jenkins, A. & Morlighem, M. Subglacial discharge accelerates future retreat of Denman and Scott glaciers. East Antarctica. Sci. Adv. 9, eadi9014 (2023).

    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kazmierczak, E., Gregov, T., Coulon, V. & Pattyn, F. A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers. Cryosphere 18, 5887–5911 (2024).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Zhao, C. et al. Subglacial water amplifies Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise. Nat. Commun. 16, 3187 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bradley, A. T. & Hewitt, I. J. Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion. Nat. Geosci. 17, 631–637 (2024).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rignot, E. et al. Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 121, e2404766121 (2024).

    Article 
    MathSciNet 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Robel, A. A., Wilson, E. & Seroussi, H. Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice. Cryosphere 16, 451–469 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bassis, J. N. et al. Stability of ice shelves and ice cliffs in a changing climate. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 52, 221–247 (2024).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Crawford, A. J. et al. Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization. Nat. Commun. 12, 2701 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Clerc, F., Minchew, B. M. & Behn, M. D. Marine ice cliff instability mitigated by slow removal of ice shelves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 12108–12116 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Edwards, T. L. et al. Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability. Nature 566, 58–64 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Morlighem, M. et al. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to marine ice cliff instability during the 21st century. Sci. Adv. 10, eado7794 (2024).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Joughin, I., Shean, D. E., Smith, B. E. & Floricioiu, D. A decade of variability on Jakobshavn Isbræ: ocean temperatures pace speed through influence on mélange rigidity. Cryosphere 14, 211–227 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ma, Y., Tripathy, C. S. & Bassis, J. N. Bounds on the calving cliff height of marine terminating glaciers. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 1369–1375 (2017).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Needell, C. & Holschuh, N. Evaluating the retreat, arrest, and regrowth of Crane Glacier against marine ice cliff process models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 50, e2022GL102400 (2023).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Parizek, B. R. et al. Ice-cliff failure via retrogressive slumping. Geology 47, 449–452 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lipscomb, W. H., Behar, D. & Morrison, M. A. Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science. Cryosphere 19, 793–803 (2025). This paper demonstrates that sea-level projections must be framed in terms that directly support adaptation decision-making, providing the broader motivation for developing robust, interpretable model diagnostics.

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lhermitte, S. et al. Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 24735–24741 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J. & Truffer, M. A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level. Cryosphere 15, 5705–5715 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Verjans, V. et al. The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability. Cryosphere 19, 3749–3783 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Edwards, T. L. et al. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. Nature 593, 74–82 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bassis, J. Quit worrying about uncertainty in sea level projections. Eos https://eos.org/opinions/quit-worrying-about-uncertainty-in-sea-level-projections (2021).

  • Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M. & Alley, R. B. Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 412, 112–121 (2015).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Morlighem, M. et al. Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nat. Geosci. 13, 132–137 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • van Dalum, C. T., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R. & van Tiggelen, M. The surface mass balance and near-surface climate of the Antarctic ice sheet in RACMO2.4p1. Cryosphere 19, 4061–4090 (2025).

    Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Mouginot, J., Scheuchl, B. & Rignot, E. MEaSUREs Antarctic boundaries for IPY 2007–2009 from satellite radar, version 2. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center https://doi.org/10.5067/AXE4121732AD (2017).

  • Rignot, E. et al. Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 1095–1103 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • McCormack, F. Accompanying data for Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19676446 (2026).

  • RELATED ARTICLES

    Most Popular

    Recent Comments