It’s almost impossible to predict which players will one day turn into a possible NBA MVP. As the league takes steps to address its purported tanking crisis, the last No. 1 overall pick to win the NBA is still Derrick Rose, who taken in 2008. After Rose, you have to go back to LeBron James (2003) and Tim Duncan (1997) for the last No. 1 overall picks to win MVP. Victor Wembanyama will almost certainly break this drought in the next year or two, but the looming ascent of Wemby opens up question: When is the next time an American-born player will win MVP?
The last American-born MVP was James Harden in 2018. Since then, Giannis Antetokounmpo won twice, Nikola Jokic won three times, Joel Embiid won once, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has won twice. Embiid was the only one of those players who was drafted in the top-10. It feels like Wembanyama could win the next seven MVP awards even if it’s unlikely because of the 65-game rule of award eligibility. It could be a long, long time before the next American MVP.
When thinking about the next American MVP, a long-term horizon needs to be considered. Given the gap between SGA, Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, and everyone else, it’s totally possible that the next NBA MVP born in America isn’t even in the league yet. Let’s go through some options.
Missed their window already, and never really got close
Donovan Mitchell: Mitchell is in the discussion for the best American-born player in the NBA right now. He’s also never finished top-5 in MVP voting, and he turns 30 in September. It’s not happening.
Jalen Brunson: It’s more likely that Brunson wins NBA Finals MVP than NBA MVP, even if that’s also a long-shot. Brunson is obviously terrific as a scorer and shot-creator, but he only has one fifth-place MVP finish to his name, and he’s not getting any better on the brink of his 30th birthday.
Jaylen Brown: He deserves a mention after the year he just turned in, but he’s not even the best player on his own team, let alone the best in the league.
Young veterans with a chance
Anthony Edwards: Edwards is one of the front-runners for this honor. He’s already a top-10 player in the league at 24 years old, and he’s also likely going to have a big marketing push behind him as the face of American basketball if he can continue to ascend as a player. Is there a world where the Timberwolves trade Rudy Gobert, Edwards suddenly has more space to drive and create, and he takes a big leap? What if he eventually changes teams? The fact that Edwards has improved so much since being drafted as a hyper-athletic ball of clay — just look at his three-point shooting from college to now — gives him a real shot to keep getting better and eventually win an MVP one day.
Jayson Tatum: Tatum is 28 years old and already has two fourth place MVP finishes on his resume. He looks fantastic returning from a torn Achilles this season, so it’s totally possible he can regain his level of play prior to the injury. Tatum was probably a long-shot MVP candidate even before the injury, since younger players have already passed him. It will be even harder with a reconstructed Achilles. Given that the Celtics consistently churn out great teams and Tatum remains their franchise player, there’s still a chance it happens one day if the other contenders miss the games played cut-off.
Cade Cunningham: Cunningham led his team to 60 wins in his age-24 season to fulfill the promise he showed as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. He’s already a borderline top-10 player, and there’s so much low-hanging fruit to clean up in his game. Cunningham can go up another level if he cuts down the turnovers and improves his scoring efficiency, and it’s possible that playing in better spacing one day will get him there. It feels like Detroit might be better served to put another ball handler next to Cade and let him work as more of a wing than a point guard, but who knows if they will actually go in that direction. He’s one of the top candidates on this list …. but he’s nowhere near Wemby, while being 2.5 years old.
Evan Mobley: I would have ranked Mobley higher on my list of the next American MVP candidates a couple years ago, but he really hasn’t gotten much better the last couple years. Does he have another big leap in him? He’s obviously a special defensive player and a good offensive player, but he’s a world away from MVP level.
LaMelo Ball: My toxic trait is that I never stop believing in LaMelo Ball. I had Ball ranked No. 1 in the 2020 NBA Draft, and he finally put it all together this season to both have a big impact on winning and grade out as a top-20 player in some metrics. The Hornets had the best net-rating in the NBA after Jan. 1. If Charlotte keeps that up and finishes at the top of the East next year (a big if, I know), Ball could sneak into MVP conversations.
Chet Holmgren: Holmgren is the closest thing we have to an American Wemby. He already feels like a top-10 player in the world to me, and just celebrated his 24th birthday. I really do think Holmgren can get up another level offensively, but not that’s not the role he’s been asked to play yet on the Thunder, and it’s hard to see a scenario where he’s the best player on his own team if he stays in OKC.
Tyrese Haliburton: Haliburton looked like an MVP caliber player last time we saw him healthy in the 2025 NBA Finals. Can he get back to that level after a torn Achilles? It will be difficult, but not impossible. The Pacers point guard could be a Steve Nash-like candidate where he gets most of the credit of his team’s success if Indiana emerges as a contender again next season.
Cooper Flagg: Flagg was the youngest player in the NBA as a rookie, and he put together a terrific season despite being asked to play de facto point guard for the first time in his life. If an NBA player’s prime is ages 24-28, Flagg won’t hit that rank until the 2030-31 season. There have been eight players in league history to win MVP before they turned 24, and Flagg will be on an all-time trajectory if he can do that. I would like to see the Mavs star get back to his roots and reassert himself as a dominant defensive player after being …. fine on that end of the floor as a rookie while shoulder a huge offensive creation burden. Flagg has the talent to win MVP. No one else born in this country has his defensive ceiling while also being carrying this big of a usage load. It just feels like it will be hard for the Mavs to build a good enough team around him in the West in the near future.
Cameron Boozer: Boozer is the best player in the 2026 NBA Draft for my money. I’ve been touting him a future NBA superstar since he was in high school, and all he did at Duke was win national player of the year with a near-unanimous vote despite being basically the youngest player in the country. Concerns about his athleticism are overblown, but to get to MVP level Boozer would probably have to turn into an excellent pull-up three-point shooter or flirt with averaging a triple-double.
Darryn Peterson: It was only 18 months ago when Peterson was dropping 58 points on A.J Dybantsa in a 40 minute high school game. He never looked healthy at Kansas, but still showed that he can be a deadly three-point shooter. If his bizarre injury issues are over now and he’s really this good of a shooter, there’s a pathway for DP to be one of the most complete scoring guard prospects to hit the draft in recent memory.
A.J. Dybantsa: Dybantsa is an extremely gifted shot-creator for such a gigantic wing. I don’t think he’s really a complete player, but put a team full of dirty work guys around him and it’s possible he could emerge as a superstar engine of an elite team. He would need to take a big leap as a three-point shooter, defender, or both to get to MVP level, but there’s a world where that could happen.
Tyran Stokes: Stokes is the front-runner to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NBA Draft right now as a jumbo shot-creator who stockpiles steals and blocks. There are some questions around his mentality. I asked an NBA scout at the combine if they thought Stokes had enough going on upstairs to eventually be a great player, and they responded by saying he’s currently a one-floor apartment. It’s more likely that he never makes an All-Star team than wins MVP, but he’s still a super talented player with plenty of time to learn winning habits.
Rhys Robinson: Robinson is a 16-year-old who won’t be eligible for the NBA Draft until 2029. He’s a tall, high-feel point guard who has played up three years in international competitions and still performed well. He’s in the international pipeline right now but was born in California. I can’t believe I’m putting someone born in 2010 on this list, but the specter of Wemby’s long run of dominance will do crazy things to a man.
Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje: Enrolling at Duke as a 17-year-old this year, JBB won’t be eligible for the draft until 2028. The Florida native is reportedly close to 7-feet tall with the skill to play on the perimeter. He could be really good 10 years from now in 2036, if the world still exists at that point.
Predicting the next American-born NBA MVP
Who will be the next American-born NBA MVP? Here’s how I’d rank the candidates.
Let us know who you think will be the next American-born NBA MVP below in the comments.
