Ah, the World Baseball Classic. The FIFA World Cup’s strange cousin who trades the English-invented soccer for an American invention with a stick and many strange rules based on the number nine. And just like how England gets consistently embarrassed by nations they technically exported soccer to, the United States looks well and truly poised to do the same with baseball (sarcastic applause).
It is very hard to predict who is going to win this thing because trying to predict the outcome of a single baseball game is of similar statistical merit to getting a hit: if you succeed 30 percent of the time, you’re doing pretty well! Baseball is shockingly random, and three of the teams remaining have bona fide god squads. To keep things exceedingly simple, the United States, Japan and the Dominican Republic have easily the best three rosters on paper — they’re also the only three nations ever to win the WBC. Whether or not any of that will translate to a victory is anyone’s guess. I’m going to guess anyway.
They aren’t the defending champions and they have arguably a worse roster than the United States on paper but come on man… this batting order is just outrageous.
Tatis Jr. leading off, never fun. Get through him and Ketel Marte cleanly you get Juan Soto. One of them gets on? Vlad Guerrero Jr. Heart of the order? Machado, Caminero, JRod. If you don’t understand what that means, it can easily be translated into two words: home run.
This team is power personified. It’s a walking bat flip. It’s every bit oozing with swag and intimidation as it is exit velocity and launch angle. There’s a reason most MLB home run derbies have a strong Dominican presence. There isn’t a single hitter to attack, and rock solid starting pitching to get them through the knockout rounds.
Why are they above the United States and Japan? Well, for one, how am I out here picking the United States to win after the week they just had (more on that below)? And for all the Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto awesomeness for Japan, this lineup is just way better one through nine. And among all the lineups, it is so easily the coolest. In a world where I am predicted one game series’, cool counts for something.
2. United States of America
So… not great thus far.
Just as a rule, I’m not a fan of my manager going on TV and saying that the team had clinched a quarterfinal berth when it had not and then my team going out there against Italy to not clinch because Red Sox legend Greg Weissert fanned Aaron Judge on four pitches in the bottom of the ninth with a man on down two… only to then get bailed out by Italy the next day because they’re a juggernaut and beat Mexico to get Team USA a spot.
All that said, it is undeniable that Team USA is an absurd collection of baseball talent that can and should be the best team in whatever game they play. The problem is they just haven’t been so far; that game against Italy was legitimately alarming, and the offense couldn’t get a leadoff hitter on all night.
Pitching is so variable, and Team USA has amazing pitching even without Tarik Skubal. That said, the offense — and Aaron Judge, who has been a visible and obvious no-show in the WBC so far — needs to be better. There is no reason it shouldn’t be better, and it must be for the United States to achieve anything more.
Coming in at a very close second in coolness ratings behind the DR is Japan, boosted mightily by having the coolest dude ever leading off, the World Series MVP as your ace, newly minted Chicago White Sock Munetaka Murakami and Barry Bon… I mean Masataka Yoshida (who the Red Sox were or are still actively trying to trade) going crazy. Lots of other great MLBers too like Seiya Suzuki and Yusei Kikuchi, but Japan’s success comes, in truth, on the backs of their domestic league.
Japan is a country with a robust and professional baseball infrastructure, and they are the defending champions for a reason. One of the only countries in the world where baseball is the most popular sport and by far the most populous (for those who didn’t know yet, baseball is in third place in the United States… has been for a while now), Japan has shown an ability to develop talent and produce quality national teams for the entire existence of the WBC. They have the best player in the world and probably of all time on their team. 4-0 in the group.
Frankly, it’s all well and dandy. From an on-paper talent perspective, it isn’t as good as the USA or DR, but Japan could totally win. They literally won last time.
I have chosen, against my better judgment, to provocatively put Italy here, bucking the trend of basically going in order of who I think has the best team when Venezuela is definitely a better group. That is for one simple reason: Italy is playing Puerto Rico and Venezuela is playing Japan.
Italy, described by some as “American 2: Italy Edition” since 24 players on the roster were born in America and only three in Italy, has been playing like the best team in the world (for some reason) for this entire tournament, pretty soundly annihilating Team USA until the very end when it got close. Our guy Greg Weissert had it covered, though.
This is a very solid team with a deep list of professional hitters — captain Vinnie Pasquantino is a power slugger for the Royals and straight up has an Italian Beef Sandwich named after him called the Pasqwich that they sell at Royals games. I mean, come on now. How are we doing any better than that?
I would not be surprised if Puerto Rico beats Italy — I thought they were a better team coming in (everyone did). But it would be disrespectful to the 4-0 Italians to have them lower.
Second half of the provocative 4-5 slots is the second most populous country where baseball is the most popular sport: Venezuela, with a squadron of great players that is unfortunately playing Japan in the quarterfinals.
Venezuela has a bunch of great players: Acuña, Arraez, two Contrerases (contrari?) and legends like Salvador Perez. They just aren’t as deep as other teams and will have to beat three great teams in a row to win it all. They are a great team themselves, but it’s simply not as likely.
A decent team with professional talent but even less depth than Venezuela, Puerto Rico would have to beat Italy (which they could do) but then defeat two consecutive titans (don’t see that happening. They are missing some of their best players, too, with Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa not playing in this year’s tournament. I will, however, take this moment to remind everyone that it’s not crazy for any team to beat any other team because this is baseball. I do not take responsibility if something crazy happens.
Another team with lots of home league players, this team is also sneaky-solid. Jung Hoo Lee and Hyeseong Kim are the two players most MLB fans will have heard of, but South Korea took Japan the distance and could be an upset factor if their young hitting can get hot. That said, every team can be an upset factor if their hitting gets hot. And they’re playing the Dominican Republic, who was my number one. So…
Fun team, lots of fun players, two Naylors, my guy Abe Toro, major-leaguers all around the batting order. I just have a hard time imagining this team beating the United States with their pitching staff. They essentially do not have a single major league reliever, so unless they can go completely nuclear on offense, it’s a hard sell. Totally defensible to swap them with South Korea, too. You would not lose any points on the test if you did that.
