There is no doubt the Toronto Blue Jays and their fans are riding high, cresting on the wings of Alex Bregman’s legend-making three-run home run in the bottom of the 7th inning of Game 7’s 4-3 comeback victory and first World Series appearance in 32 years.
No matter what happens from this point on, the 2025 season has been a success.
That’s good. Because just about everyone in the world will be picking the Los Angeles Dodgers to win their second title in a row.
It’s understandable. L.A.’s pitching staff is in the midst of an all-time postseason heater, having held the Milwaukee Brewers to one run in each game of the NLCS and just 14 hits in their four-game sweep, a historic run of dominance that began in the NLDS against the Phillies. Now, the Blue Jays’ vaunted lineup must find a way to break through against a Dodgers rotation that was virtually impenetrable in the first three rounds of the postseason.
While the odds are not high that Toronto will upset the Dodgers in the World Series, it’s not an impossibility. In fact, there are real reasons Jays fans should feel hopeful their birds can pull off the upset.
When your best player is having a playoff for the ages, you have an outstanding shot to go all the way. And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is assaulting opposing pitching this October.
Winner of the ALCS MVP, Guerrero has slugged six homers in the postseason so far and piled up 12 RBIs, more than anyone else in the tournament. He has struck out just three times, is hitting .442 with a .510 on-base percentage and an OPS of 1.440. Against Seattle he went 10-for-26 (.385 AVG) with 3 HRs, 22 total bases and a 1.330 OPS.
Shohei Ohtani may be the best player in baseball, but Guerrero is the best hitter left in the playoffs, and he’s coming through on the game’s biggest stage.
Toronto has slugged 20 HRs, tied with the Mariners for most in the postseason. They’ve scored 71 runs in 11 games, an average of 6.4 runs per game. By comparison, the Dodgers have scored 4.6, which isn’t bad, but also isn’t great. The Jays are averaging 10.4 hits per game with 115 total in the playoffs. The next closest teams, the Mariners and Dodgers, have 88.
George Springer has launched four bombs, including the one that sent them to the Fall Classic on Monday night, catcher Alejandro Kirk has slammed three, and the bottom of the lineup – Addison Barger, Andres Gimenez, Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement and Isiah Kiner-Falefa – have done damage as well.
Oh, and Bo Bichette, who finished third in the American League in hits despite missing the final three weeks, is expected to return to the lineup for Game 1, although fitting Bichette and Springer into the same lineup could be problematic, given both are dealing with leg injuries and may not be able to be in the field.
In short, the entire lineup is smoking the ball, piling up lots of base hits and dingers. The home runs are particularly important. Teams that out-homer their opponents are 24-5 this postseason and were 23-8 last year. As ESPN’s Sarah Langs noted, 44.5% of all runs have been scored via the home run this October, up from 41.1% in the regular season, and down slightly from 47.0% in last year’s playoffs.
The Dodgers’ pitching staff has been straight fire over the last few weeks, striking out 24.8% of hitters so far in the playoffs. They now face a Toronto offense that, while hitting for power, has also struck out less than any team in baseball this year, just 17.8% of the time.
The Milwaukee Brewers had a similar profile, albeit without the power, striking out just 20.3% of the time, tied for 4th-lowest, but they struck out 41 times in four games against the Dodgers, just a little over 10 whiffs per game in their four-game defeat.
If the Blue Jays can avoid Milwaukee’s fate and use their outstanding bat-to-ball skills against a superior Dodgers rotation, perhaps they stand a chance.
Jeff Hoffman had an up-and-down season as Toronto’s closer and finished the season with a 4.37 ERA and 33 saves. He was worth -0.4 fWAR. However, over the last month, he’s posted a 0.84 ERA over 10.2 innings, and his three-strikeout save to finish off Game 7 was ridiculously effective.
Braydon Fisher (1.85 ERA), Eric Lauer (1.76), and Yariel Rodriguez (2.88) form a dynamic set-up trio for Toronto, with starter Chris Bassitt available for high leverage outs, as evidenced by his 8th inning scoreless inning in Game 7.
It is a huge advantage over the Dodgers’ bullpen, which Los Angeles will attempt to avoid using at all costs. So far, their starters have been successful in making their shaky bullpen a moot point, but against a more patient and relentless Toronto lineup, they may not have that luxury in the World Series.
The Dodgers finished off their four-game sweep of the Brewers last Friday. Game 1 of the World Series is this Friday. That’s seven days between games for Los Angeles. The Jays, meanwhile, will have four days before ramping things back up again.
Is that week off for the Dodgers enough of a delay to derail what their rotation was doing through the first three rounds? Or will the time off affect both teams equally?
Also, the Blue Jays have home field advantage in the World Series, by virtue of finishing with more wins (94) than the Dodgers (93). That didn’t come in too handy in the ALCS when they lost the first two games at home, but it sure seemed to be a good thing for them in winning Games 6 and 7 at Rogers Center.
