The Trump administration’s decision to suspend the delivery of all military assistance to Ukraine left Ukrainians and Europeans figuring out on Tuesday how to fend for themselves.
The decision — which potentially affects at least $9 billion in arms, ammunition, and air defense systems in the pipeline and on order, according to new estimates — made real a fear that has racked Kyiv since President Trump’s re-election.
Here’s what to know.
Why is the U.S. suspending aid?
The United States has provided about $67 billion in military weaponry and equipment to Ukraine since the war began in 2022 — nearly half of the total $136 billion that allies have given. But Mr. Trump’s overtures toward Russia after taking office in January aggravated fears among allies that he would cut American aid, spurring President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to shore up European support.
After an explosive confrontation in the Oval Office last week, during which Mr. Trump castigated the Mr. Zelensky for not being grateful enough for U.S. support, the White House decided to pause weapons shipments, according to senior administration and military officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Few details have been released about the move, which appears aimed at forcing Mr. Zelensky to agree to a cease-fire on terms Mr. Trump dictates — or be condemned to larger battlefield losses.
The officials said the directive would be in effect until Mr. Trump determined that Ukraine had demonstrated a good-faith commitment to peace negotiations with Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of it in February 2022. It was not immediately clear what that might look like or how long the suspension will last, but for now, it will be up to Kyiv and its European allies to try to keep Ukraine’s guns firing.
Has this ever happened before?
Mr. Trump’s move has few direct precedents in recent American history.
The United States has paused the transfer of specific weapons systems to allies and partners, like when President Joseph R. Biden Jr. suspended deliveries of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel because of their disproportionate impact oncivilians in Gaza. But a full cutoff is unusual, and is essentially an ultimatum.
It is not the first time Mr. Trump has blocked aid to Ukraine. During his first term, he pushed Mr. Zelensky to help tarnish Mr. Biden when he was the leading Democratic candidate for president, withholding military aid to Ukraine. He released it only after pressure from advisers and Republican senators. Revelations about those actions led to Mr. Trump’s first impeachment.
What is the impact?
Some top Ukrainian officials say the military will be in dire straits in about half a year if the American support is not restarted.
“Ukraine definitely has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course,” one member of Parliament, Fedir Venislavskyi, told the news agency RBC-Ukraine on Tuesday.
The United States was set to deliver around $11.1 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine this year, funds that were already spent on defense contracts and arms from Pentagon stockpiles still waiting to be shipped, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A former senior American defense official said the number was likely closer to $9 billion.
How many weapons does Ukraine have now?
The ever-shifting number of weapons from allies flowing into Ukraine and out to the battlefields makes it difficult to estimate stockpile levels. Experts say that how much remains, or can be quickly replenished, largely depends on the type of weapon.
Artillery, for example, was as recently as last year a bellwether of Ukraine’s battlefield success.
Ukraine is currently firing about 5,000 artillery rounds each day — slightly less than its estimated average for much of the war, said Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military. Ukraine has said it should be able to produce enough artillery for itself by later this year, and other European nations should be able to help maintain the balance.
Ukraine is also building its own armored vehicles and anti-tank weapons, having burned through more than 4,000 tanks, personnel carriers and other combat trucks since 2022. And the vast majority of drones, which have surpassed other weapons in lethality on the front lines, are made in Ukraine.
But the air defenses needed to protect Ukraine’s cities, military posts and critical infrastructure from Russian missiles and bombs — among the American weapons systems that Mr. Zelensky has in the past deemed “crucial” to his country’s survival — remain sparse. That is partly because Ukraine uses missiles needed to intercept airstrikes almost as quickly as they are delivered, especially those that can stop Russian ballistic missiles and glide bombs that are difficult and costly to block.
Adding to the uncertainty, for much of February, the Trump administration halted U.S. exports of sensitive dual-use items that can be used in weapons, stirring alarm among European defense industry executives that they would be unable to produce interceptor missiles and other ammunition.
Can other allies fill the gap?
The pledges of support and continued military aid for Ukraine from leaders around Europe and in Canada have become increasingly pitched since Mr. Trump’s election.
So far this year, air defense missiles have been pledged by Britain, Germany, Lithuania and Sweden. Canada is sending more combat vehicles and flight simulators for training fighter pilots. France and the Netherlands have delivered more fighter jets. And Norway and Finland are each spending hundreds of millions of dollars to buy weapons for Ukraine.
“Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending, both to respond to the short-term urgency to act and to support Ukraine, but also to address the long-term need to take on more responsibility for our own European security,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said in Brussels on Tuesday.
She announced a $841 billion plan to increase defense budgets across Europe and to encourage joint procurement among states to speed weapons manufacturing.
But such efforts have previously fallen short, with countries pulled between domestic spending needs and defense contractors unable to produce vast amounts of costly weapons without upfront capital.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.
