The elite of the elite in women’s college basketball will arrive in Tampa, Florida later this week for the chance to compete for a national championship. The remaining field features three No. 1 seeds — UCLA, South Carolina and Texas — and arguably the sport’s most-iconic program, No. 2 UConn.
It’s UCLA’s first-ever trip to the Final Four. The Bruins have lost just two games all season — both of them to JuJu Watkins-powered USC teams — and are here after beating LSU in the Elite Eight behind impressive performances from 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts and the sharpshooting Gabriela Jaquez.
Powered by SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker, Texas is one of the last four teams standing for the first time since 2003. The Longhorns grinded down two high-scoring squads in Tennessee and TCU in Birmingham to make Vic Schaefer just the fifth coach in the history of the sport to reach a Final Four with two different programs.
South Carolina survived two very different close battles with Maryland and Duke to reach the Final Four for the fifth consecutive season. MiLaysia Fulwiley saved the day for the Gamecocks against Maryland, while Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin stepped up late against an oppressive Blue Devils’ defense that held South Carolina to its lowest scoring total of the season. Dawn Staley’s team is attempting to become the first program to win back-to-back titles since UConn won four in a row with Breanna Stewart leading the way, the last of those coming in 2016.
That brings us to the Huskies, armed with a big-three of Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong who are attempting to end Geno Auriemma’s nine-year national championship drought. UConn’s road to getting to the Final Four got easier when USC’s Watkins suffered a season-ending injury in the second round of the tournament, but they still needed a combined 71 points from Bueckers to win games in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
These are the teams in Tampa. Let’s figure out who has the best shot to win it all.
4. Texas
The Longhorns are really good. A team doesn’t get this far in the tournament without being extremely talented.
But South Carolina has already beaten the Longhorns twice this season in places that were not Austin, Texas, and did so by comfortable margins. Teams coached by Schaefer are 15-4 all-time against teams coached by Staley. So, with all due respect to Booker, Rori Harmon, Kyla Oldacre and co. — we know how this national semifinal matchup is going to go, right?
Sorry, but I just don’t see Staley losing to Schaefer on this big of a stage.
If Texas does have one thing going for it, it’s the metrics. They are third in Her Hoop Stats Rating, 19th in effective field goal defense and 35th in rebounding. Earlier this season, we explained why those numbers are so important.
3. South Carolina
In March, South Carolina is inevitable. But now it’s April. Are we sure the Gamecocks can keep starting slow and playing close games and keep getting away with it?
Texas is about to try to do what it did to South Carolina in Austin and what Duke did to South Carolina in Birmingham, which is to pack the paint, force turnovers, stifle Fulwiley and dare the Gamecocks to make 3-pointers consistently.
And perhaps Texas isn’t capable of accomplishing this twice in one season.
But those other two teams in the field — UCLA and UConn — both smacked the Gamecocks earlier this season. The Bruins beat the Gamecocks by 15 and the Huskies won by 29 in Columbia. If South Carolina beats Texas to advance to the title bout, the Huskies and Bruins won’t be scared.
2. UConn
It just sort of feels like UConn’s year, right?
Not only do the Huskies have the best all-around player left in this tournament in Bueckers — the presumed No. 1 pick of the upcoming WNBA Draft — but they also have the best freshman in the country in the versatile Sarah Strong and arguably the top shooter in Azzi Fudd. Around them are strong complimentary players in Kaitlyn Chen, Jana El Alfy and Ashlynn Shade.
While UConn comfortably beat South Carolina earlier this season, the worrisome hurdle for the Huskies is the Final Four matchup with UCLA, where they’ll have to grapple with Betts. UConn has had success in beating some teams armed with talented centers this year, from Sania Feagin to Maria Gakdeng to Audi Crooks to Raegan Beers, but they haven’t faced one as dominant as Betts.
For El Alfy and Strong, figuring out how to stop Betts will be a big test.
1. UCLA
Those key stats I mentioned earlier are on the Bruins’ side as well. They are fourth in Her Hoop Stats Rating, fifth in effective field goal defense, and fifth in rebounding. Those, history has told us, are the makings of a national championship winner.
Couple that with the fact that UCLA has the best post player in this tournament in Lauren Betts, who is on an absolute tear, averaging 21.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 3.7 blocks per game over her last seven contests.
A lot of times the team with the best big playing well wins this thing. Kamilla Cardoso, Angel Reese and Aliyah Boston are your most recent Most Outstanding Players at the Final Four. Betts could be next.
