Why Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is one of the NFL’s most intriguing player to watch in 2024

Three quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, with wildly different rookie seasons for each. Top overall pick Bryce Young had a disastrous first year with the Carolina Panthers, while second pick C.J. Stroud flourished with the Houston Texans on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and an AFC Divisional Round appearance. While Young is looking for big improvement under new coach Dave Canales, Stroud is a preseason MVP candidate on a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Then there’s the No. 4 overall selection: Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts. Arguably the most polarizing quarterback of the draft, the 22-year-old’s rookie campaign unfortunately ended in early October.

Between his lone season as a starter at the University of Florida and his handful of starts with the Colts, there’s still scant data on whether or not the predominantly NFL Combine-fueled hype surrounding Richardson is warranted. He’s a fascinating case study in “tools over productivity.” While Richardson’s college stats were not overly impressive on an otherwise unremarkable Gators team, his physical traits were, to quote Robert Palmer, “simply irresistible.”

What can we draw from his limited NFL sample size?

Richardson’s NFL stats: 50-of-84 (59.5%) for 577 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 lost fumble, 7 sacks taken; 25 carries for 136 yards, 4 rushing touchdowns

Durability is a real question mark

Richardson started four games but only completed one. In the final series of his debut against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he left with a bruised knee. A concussion in Week 2 against the Houston Texans caused him to miss Week 3, while an AC joint sprain in Week 5 versus the Tennessee Titans marked the end of his season. All three injuries were sustained while running the ball.

At Florida, Richardson didn’t miss much actual game time in his final year in college, although he tore his meniscus against Florida State back in 2021 and underwent surgery. Other minor knocks took him out of two games, and he hurt his knee while dancing (no, seriously). While it’s premature to declare Richardson injury-prone, his health is going to be among the many subplots of Richardson’s second season.

The Colts offense was not consistent, but it was explosive

At the time of the Los Angeles Rams game (his only full start to date), Richardson led the NFL in explosive play rate (12+yard rushes and 20+yard passes). The Rams performance epitomizes the highs and lows of the Colts offense under Richardson. Five of his 11 completions were explosive plays, including this outrageous deep pass to receiver Alec Pierce as he was being corralled by Aaron Donald.

But scattered around the explosives were huge lulls. Prior to Richardson’s fourth quarter heroics that turned a 23-8 hole into a 23-23 tie, the Rams held the Colts offense to 3.7 yards per play, 8 first downs, and Richardson was just 5-of-14 passing.

In his debut versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Colts had a markedly conservative gameplan and scored 14 offensive points on 14 drives. As Stampede Blue’s Jay Robins noted, though, Richardson was much more aggressive with his downfield passing after Week 1.

Accuracy remains an issue

One of the red flags regarding Richardson’s skillset was his accuracy, having completed less than 55 percent of his throws in college. For as smooth and effortless as his throwing motion looks, having an extraordinarily powerful arm means nothing without consistent aim or control.

On intermediate passes (10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), Richardson was just 9-of-19 for 173 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, per PFF. His 52.6 adjusted completion percentage (which accounts for drops) ranked slightly above Kenny Pickett and Tommy DeVito.

In this year’s preseason finale against the Cincinnati Bengals, Richardson started 7-of-8 with a touchdown, only to finish 1-of-6 the rest of the night with a pick-six thrown, causing Kirk Herbstreit to create a QB controversy out of thin air between him and Joe Flacco.

Overthrows were a noted problem for Richardson in college and the erratic throws have persisted in the pros.

Richardson is a serious red zone rushing threat

It’s not normal for someone of Richardson’s size (6’4 and 244 lbs) to have 4.43-second speed in the 40-yard dash. Richardson didn’t put up gaudy stats on limited attempts (17 carries for 100 yards on designed rushes), but he did become the first rookie quarterback to rush for a touchdown in his first three starts. His power and acceleration make him incredibly dangerous in the open field.

Richardson had six designed carries in the red zone, scoring four times. Only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts had more red zone rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks.

What could change in 2024?

Colts head coach Shane Steichen said this past June about whether or not the team would limit Richardson’s running this season, “Are you gonna limit Steph Curry from shooting 3-pointers?” The former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator had tremendous success guiding Jalen Hurts to MVP runner-up in 2022, and that’s what makes his partnership with Richardson so tantalizing.

It’s worth pointing out that the Colts also did not have star running back Jonathan Taylor for seven games last year due to a contract holdout and injuries. Taylor’s return coincided with the end of Richardson’s season. The Colts still finished 8th in rush DVOA (per FTN Fantasy) despite the prolonged absences of both men. With one of the better lines in the league, expect Steichen to make heavy use of Richardson and Taylor in read-option and run-pass options in his playbook. Behind that OL, there’s every reason to think Richardson will be an integral part of an elite rushing attack, and he’ll finally have the services of one of the top running backs in the league.

The ceiling of the Colts offense, however, ultimately hinges upon Richardson’s rocket right arm. He’s not yet a polished enough passer to be less reliant on his scrambling and designed runs. Indy’s front office sought to improve the wide receiver group by drafting Adonai ‘AD’ Mitchell in the second round. He provides the Colts a deep threat and speed element that top option Michael Pittman Jr. lacks, and his impressive preseason may see him quickly overtake the inconsistent Alec Pierce in terms of target share. Josh Downs has been injured and will miss Week 1 against the Houston Texans, but the second-year player from North Carolina had a productive rookie season and figures to be a quality slot option for Richardson.

Pre-draft (and even post-draft), Richardson drew frequent comparisons to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who was similarly terrific at the combine, had concerns about his accuracy, decision-making, and throwing mechanics at Wyoming, but also had far more collegiate experience than Richardson. After a shaky first two seasons in the pros, Allen has substantially improved his accuracy and is now a perennial MVP candidate (even if still scrutinized for his turnovers).

With just 18 starts since high school, it’s more reasonable than not to expect a healthy, full-season Richardson to have growing pains, much like Allen did. There’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll develop as quickly or successfully as Allen. However, with his individual talent, the offensive talent around him, and Steichen’s creative schemes, he’s well positioned to succeed sooner rather than later.

The Colts aren’t projected to factor in the AFC playoff picture, but if Richardson is able to clean up some of his biggest flaws and maximize his greatest strengths, Indy could go a step further after narrowly missing last year’s playoffs with Minshew at the helm. At the very least, Richardson should be extremely entertaining to watch, and his development is why he’s must-see TV for this season and beyond.