Fantasy football season is in full swing and your first pick could be the make or break pick of your draft. If you hit a home run, you’re sitting pretty, but if you strike out, you’re behind the eight ball. Those are a lot of mixed metaphors to tell you to make your decision wisely!
This season we’re looking at a fairly flat first couple rounds of the draft, meaning, the difference between the first pick and the 12th pick isn’t as wide as in previous seasons. Christian McCaffrey is no longer the highest upside, safe pick. There are plenty of top receivers in the league who could beat out the triple crown winner Ja’marr Chase. And as long as we don’t get too bogged down in last year’s results, we can zig while others zag without much worry early on.
For this exercise we’re going to look at half PPR leagues. That is what I use when I can and is a nice compromise between standard and full PPR.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (ADP, 1)
Chase is the consensus No. 1 pick in half PPR in ADP. His huge 2024 season pushed him way ahead of the rest of the field in fantasy points and it makes perfect sense to believe he can put up similar numbers this season. The Bengals are going to need to throw the ball a ton and they are looking to get off to a much better start this year by playing their starters in preseason. Chase didn’t score a touchdown or top 62 yards in the first two games last year. A faster start this year could set him up well for the season.
We also know that repeating as the No. 1 fantasy player isn’t that easy. In 2023 McCaffrey led the way, Austin Ekeler in 2022, Cooper Kupp in 2021, and Alvin Kamara in 2020. Will Chase be able to put up 127 receptions for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns again in 2025? Those are some crazy numbers to be sure. I don’t expect quite those heights this season, which still keep him in No. 1 pick territory, but it also leaves the door open to catch lightning in a bottle for this season. If I’m feeling like I should play things safe, I’ll take Chase, but usually I try to catch that lightning.
Saquon Barkley/Bijan Robinson (ADP, 2)
Barkley and Robinson are pretty much tied for the No. 2 pick in ADP. Barkley was absolutely huge last season as he ran behind the best offensive line in the business. He topped 2,000 yards rushing and added 33 receptions for 278 yards, finishing with 15 total touchdown. Like Chase, he’ll have a tough time topping those numbers. Only nine backs have ever hit 2k yards and none have repeated the following season or ever again in their career. Barkley also went over 480 touches when you add in the Eagles’ Super Bowl run. If you don’t grab Barkley as the first running back off the board, then you are betting on regression and that the Eagles will need to throw the ball more this season. I’m making that bet. If Barkley were to drop a little in the first round, I’d grab him, but if he goes at ADP, I’ll pass.
Robinson is a different story. His numbers last season were great, as he rushed 304 times for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns, while also catching 61 of 72 targets for 431 yards and a touchdown. And that was an after a slow start to the season. As his usage became consistently over 20 touches a game from Week 6 on, he became a true fantasy stud. He left some meat on the bone last season and I actually see room for him to up his numbers this year, which has me taking him first more often than not.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions (ADP, 4)
Gibbs was an absolute monster last season. He finished as the No. 1 fantasy running back in the league, rushing 250 times for 1,412 yards and 16 touchdowns, and adding 52 receptions on 63 targets for 517 yards and 4 more touchdowns. That’s a whopping 20 touchdowns and 1,929 total yards. The only reason he isn’t the consensus No. 1 running back off the board is he was too efficient. Averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 9.9 yards per reception while scoring 20 touchdowns on 302 touches is an outlier. Of course, Gibbs just might be an outlier, but asking for another 20 touchdown season is asking too much. Gibbs also saw a nice boost at the end of the season when David Montgomery was injured. In those three games, Gibbs put up 487 total yards and six touchdowns. He was awesome in the previous games of course, but he would not have reached those insane numbers if Montgomery had been siphoning off carries.
I find it difficult to slot him into the No. 1 slot, but I often take him ahead of Barkley, especially in full PPR leagues. He’ll have trouble being as efficient as last year, but he also has a chance to see more work under a new offensive coordinator. His floor is lower than Barkley, but his upside is higher.
Justin Jefferson/CeeDee Lamb (ADP, 5)
Jefferson and Lamb’s ADP is nearly tied at 5th overall. Both are extremely consistent and both have shown an ability to hit big numbers for fantasy. Jefferson has topped 1,800 yards in a season, while topping out at 10 touchdowns twice. In 2023 Lamb led all receivers in fantasy points with over 1,700 yards and 12 touchdowns. Compared to Chase, their numbers have been similar, with the one exception of Chase’s 17 touchdowns last season. We all know that touchdowns are extremely hard to predict from season to season, so we can’t just boost Chase ahead of these two based on last year’s TD numbers. Both the Cowboys and Vikings will continue to be pass first teams and have plenty of targets for their top dog receivers. Chase also saw a bump in work with Tee Higgins out for five games in 2025. In the end, I still have Chase ahead of these two based on Joe Burrows’ ability. Then I have Lamb next due to Dak Prescott and a poor running game in Dallas and then Jefferson with the first year starter JJ McCarthy now at the helm.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers (ADP, 7)
The next four players are all close together in ADP, but McCaffrey is the 7th overall pick via FantasyPros ADP tool. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve to be the No. 1 pick due to his injury trouble of late, but he’s also just one year removed from being the top fantasy player in the league. His Achilles tendinosis is concerning and his trip out of the country to get stem cell injections is also concerning. However, our man George Kittle had a similar injury and also got stem cell infusions and he seems to be back on track. Does that mean I’m all in on CMC now? No. But I also believe another great season is within the realm of possibilities. Drafting McCaffrey is all about the risk you’re willing to take on. If he falls even a couple picks below his ADP, you’re going to get two very high upside picks in rounds one and two.
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens (ADP, 7)
Henry continues to have two troubling facts that he always seems to overcome — he doesn’t catch many passes and he has an ungodly number of carries stacked up over his career. We also saw his yards per carry fall to 4.2 his last season with the Titans and thought maybe, just maybe, the Big Dog is slowing down. But, as usual, he proved he still has it with an enormous season in Baltimore’s top offense. He almost hit 2,000 yards rushing, which would have made him the first running back to hit that number twice and he scored 18 total touchdowns, tying his previous high when he went over 2,ooo yards in 2019.
At some point he is g0ing to hit the wall, but coming off yet another monster season, how can you predict it happens this year? In half and full PPR leagues, he still needs those huge rushing totals and touchdowns to be huge for a Top 5 finish, which gives him less leeway than a back who catches 50+ passes. So there is risk even with the Henry, but we still know he’s in one of the best offenses in the league, with a quarterback who completely disrupts run defenses, giving his running backs much more room to get a head full of steam built up. You don’t want to give Henry a head full of steam. He has No. 1 upside in standard leagues, but I like him at his ADP 7 in half PPR.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions (ADP, 9)
St. Brown continued his consistent dominance last season, finishing as WR3 in PPR leagues by a wide margin. The Lions have no reason to not continue feeding him. He’s topped 105 reception in each of his last three season, making him the only player to do so. He’s a PPR stable, but he’s also hit double-digit touchdowns the last two seasons as well. You could wonder if Jameson Williams could see a bump in targets while ARSB gets a deduction, but I don’t see the team cutting work for their most reliable receiver. I do believe there are 5-7 receivers following St. Brown in the rankings who have the same fantasy upside as Brown though. And I usually try to wait to pick one of those guys if it means I can grab someone own the first who ahas No. 1 overall upside. That’s a lot of upside up your head and side and wherever else you want.
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders (ADP, 10)
The Raiders are always a team you have to be a little worried about due to their history of disfunction, but this season sure feels like one where they can right the ship. The addition of Pete Carroll, Geno Smith and first round pick Ashton Jeanty will help stabilize the unstable. Jeanty is good. And the team invested their sixth overall pick in him. That doesn’t happen for running backs that often, especially in today’s NFL. They are going to run the ball a lot and they are going to pass to their running backs in Chip Kelly’s offense. I like Jeanty right up there with McCaffrey around pick No. 7 and would probably take him ahead of CMC and even Henry more often than not. And if he’s there at his ADP, I’m going to take him every time.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants (ADP, 11)
Puka Nacua, WR, Rams (ADP, 12)
Nico Collins, WR, Texans (ADP, 13)
De’Von Achane, RB, Dolphins (ADP, 14)
Brian Thomas, WR, Jaguars (ADP, 15)
Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers (ADP, 16)
Drake London, WR, Falcons (ADP, 17)
After Jeanty we have a nice group of players who all could go at the end of the first round. If I threw a dart at these guys, I’d like be happy with my pick, especially if I have something around the 8th and 17th picks in the first two rounds of the draft.
Of this group, Achane likely has the most upside as a big play running back who caught over 70 passes last season. He does seem much riskier than the running backs before him, but that’s why you can get him at a discount. Going McCaffrey and Achane to start is probably too much risk for my blood, but it’s a risk that could pay off immensely if they stay healthy.
I’m not a huge fan of Josh Jacobs’ upside, but his stability at this point in the draft is fine. The Packers ran the ball a ton last season and Marshawn Lloyd can’t seem to stay healthy enough to win snaps at the expense of the veteran. However, I also have Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, and Chase Brown right up there with Jacobs. They almost feel interchangeable, so I would lean toward the wide receivers ahead of Jacobs as we follow their ADP heading into the end of the second round.
Going into drafts this season I’ve been leaning toward grabbing a running backs first and then a wide receiver or top tight end second. I’m completely happy to grab any of these wide receivers in the first 17 ADP picks as my No. 1 receiver, but I’d much rather have one of the top 5 running backs as my No. 1 at that position.
If I do miss out on one of top running backs because I pick late in the first, I’d still be fine grabbing a preferred wide receiver and one of the second tier backs around the first and second round turn. I could see going with two running backs to start, but I’d likely need a player or two to drop to make that work.
