This has been a very weird NFL season. If you went back to June and told someone that the Commanders would be leading the NFC East, the AFC East wouldn’t be close at all, and the 49ers would be locked at .500 with two other teams in the NFC West, nobody would believe you.
If 2024 has taught us anything it’s shifting trends in football have made it very difficult to predict futures in the league. Also, the best coaches show their chops by being able to adapt to changing conditions inside the season and find ways for their teams to win regardless.
So, who are the front runners for Coach of the Year in a season as unpredictable as this one?
Dan Campbell — Detroit Lions
A lot about COY comes down to past recognition. Voters love to give this award to first-time winners, and when you couple that with Campbell’s resume this season it’s a pretty safe bet.
The Lions are cruising at 6-1 right now, and if you look at their remaining schedule it’s not outside the realm of possibility they finish the regular season at 13-4 (at the very worst). If they win the NFC North and go on a run to the NFC Championship game or better, there’s no doubt Campbell would be a favorite for the award.
This is a body of work situation, where it’s not just what Campbell has achieved this season, but in totality as he’s turned the Lions from a two-decade laughing stock of the NFL into one of the most terrifying compete teams in football.
Dan Quinn — Washington Commanders
There’s a similar case to be made for Quinn as Campbell, though slightly less pronounced. What give him the slight rub is the mammoth jump Washington has taken from 2023 to now.
A year ago this was a 4-13 team picking No. 2 in the NFL Draft. Now they’ve already surpassed their win total from a season ago, and have more hope entering the second half of the year than at any point in years.
Couple this with a soft schedule in the back-stretch with four easy-to-win games and a handful off toss ups, and we have a very real situation where Washington could be a 12+ win team. That mammoth year-over-year improvement is what has won coaches the award in the past, and the defensive jump this team has taken as well as their skill with a rookie quarterback has made them a juggernaut.
Andy Reid — Kansas City Chiefs
There are two ways you can view the Chiefs in 2024: One is a team that has taken a step back and looks much shakier than either of their last two Super Bowl seasons. The other is a 7-0 team, still surging, while dealing with mammoth injuries on offense and an unpredictable season from Travis Kelce.
Sure, you could focus on narrow wins over the Raiders, Bengals and Falcons — using that as a sign the team really isn’t all that, but the truth is that the 2024 Chiefs operate on ruthless efficiency over flashy plays and when you look at roster quality top-to-bottom it’s difficult to put them on par with some of the other best teams in the league.
If Reid has the Chiefs cruising to their third Super Bowl appearance in a row, and if rumors start bubbling up that this is his final season then we could very well see the 2024 COY as a lifetime achievement award of sorts.
Mike Tomlin — Pittsburgh Steelers
Nothing Mike Tomlin does as a coach is flashy, but the greatest testament to his ability is that he never, ever is in a position where the Steelers aren’t competitive. The man has an unnatural ability to get his staff on the same page, roll with the punches of the season, and continually find ways to keep the team competitive and a playoff threat.
The Steelers of 2024 don’t have a true No. 1 receiver. They have started two quarterbacks to equal success. Najee Harris has been up-and-down as a rusher. Still they’re 6-2 and in control of the AFC North, the league’s most-competitive division. Some of that has been aided by abject disaster in Cleveland a defensive struggles on the Bengals — but it’s still damn impressive that he has this team rolling in spite of it all.
Tomlin is an outside shot for this award if we’re being totally honest, and his job in 2024 requires more nuance — which is something the award hasn’t rewarded in the past. Still, outside of winning the Super Bowl you’d be hard pressed to find a more impressive season from any coach this year.
Other potential coaches to watch
Jonathan Gannon — Arizona Cardinals
If the Cardinals win the NFC West with their roster then Gannon will deserve some attention.
Matt LeFleur — Green Bay Packers
Bouncing back since trading away Aaron Rodgers and being one of the best teams in the NFC is an incredible feat.
Kevin O’Connell — Minnesota Vikings
The rock-bottom expectations for the Vikings this season have been absolutely trounced by their stellar performance on the field.
