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Which free agent quarterback should NFL teams bet on in 2026?

The NFL Combine is in the books and up next for the league at large is a shift to free agency.

Who will try to atone for the misgivings of last year? Who will swing for the fences and fall flat on their faces?

It is our job, between Michael Peterson and RJ Ochoa, to figure that out.

Who won the David Montgomery trade?

RJ: On Monday the Detroit Lions sent David Montgomery to the Houston Texans in exchange for a fourth-round pick, Juice Scruggs, and a seventh-round pick. I can see both sides here.

While I understand the Texans wanting to get a fresh back and someone to help ease the burden on CJ Stroud, this feels sort of rich. Even if it had just been the fourth-round pick I would have reservations.

Ultimately I think the Lions came out on top here. Having Jahmyr Gibbs certainly helps in that regard, but the opportunity in front of Montgomery now is very interesting and will be fun to watch. Win-win, I suppose.

Michael: I saw several reports that the trade compensation seemed as if the Texans had to out-bid another team to add Montgomery to their roster. Ben Allbright, a Broncos insider, let it be known that Denver was in fact the team who was also in on Monty. So that makes sense when looking at the entire haul for the Lions.

Scruggs was not a starter for the Texans, but Houston needs offensive linemen. Trading a young one away to add a back who now has to run behind that underwhelming unit doesn’t seem like good practice.

I have to go with the Lions here as the winner as they get back picks and a player for a guy who, despite being a good and productive back for them, has become more redundant as Jahmyr Gibbs becomes even more of a superstar whom Detroit wants to run their offense through.

Are we not talking enough about how the Vikings are in on quarterbacks?

Michael: I think we’re talking enough about it, honestly. It’s not a surprise the Vikings are looking at competition for J.J. MacCarthy and/or a new starter now that there is a new interim general manager in Minnesota. He’s not tied to McCarthy and there’s a chance KOC may need to unlatch himself from the young quarterback if he hopes to continue as their head coach.

McCarthy had spurts of promise in his first season as the starter but the lows were pretty dang low compared to how high the highs were, and he’s started just 10 games over two seasons. Someone like Kyler Murray could be a great fit with the Vikings. He’d be my first choice over the other reported top candidate, Geno Smith.

There’s still so much talent surrounding the quarterback position in Minnesota that they really can’t waste much more time throwing McCarthy out there to get mixed results any given week.

RJ: Last week brought the report that the Vikings could be in on Anthony Richardson (more on him in a moment), and I find it fascinating how we are just all totally cool with the fact that the Vikings have basically given up all hope on J.J. McCarthy.

To be clear I think they need to and applaud them for not falling into some sunk cost fallacy. But a year ago the Vikings were walking like they had just found an all-time dude. I understand why they were doing so, to be clear, but the whole thing is really representative of how fast things can move in the NFL.

On the McCarthy note… what does his future even look like? Should the Vikings try to move him? Why keep him around and invite all of the questions and stories?

Could Anthony Richardson really thrive somewhere else?

RJ: As a Florida Gator grad student… a part of me will always be intrigued by Anthony Richardson. He is so wildly talented and given what Sam Darnold just did (arguably did last year, too) then I feel like it is fair to want to see Anthony with another team.

Injuries are certainly the main question here and whether or not Richardson can survive an NFL season is a fair one. What if someone like the Lions were to trade for him? Jared Goff is entrenched as a starter and so there would be no threat or silly story, and the time could allow Richardson an opportunity to really grow and thrive under a solid coaching staff.

Michael: I cannot say I have much confidence in Richardson and his future. I think he had such a lack of experience coming out of Florida that it was always insane that he was taken in the first round. His fate in Indianapolis was also not a surprise given how underwhelming his time had been with the Colts since being drafted. He needs a fresh environment ASAP.

Now truthfully he needs much more time and experience on top of the new environment, but the first needs to come before the latter. A team who ends up signing Richardson is going to have to have a real plan in place for his development or else he’ll be stuck in an unfortunate version of purgatory in regards to his development. He cannot go to a bad team and hope to make strides. If he needs to sit as the third-stringer on a really good team with an elite quarterback, then so be it.

Which free agent quarterback would you bet on?

RJ: He is not a free agent at this moment, but I will always believe in Kyler Murray. I can’t stop.

Kyler is just so much fun to watch and to the Sam Darnold point above… what if he fell into the perfect situation? Like with Richardson, it is hard to wonder what that is. Could Kyler be Pittsburgh’s answer? Should he head to Atlanta? What about the Jets?

I want to see Kyler Murray run and play quarterback forever. Nobody ruin this for me.

Michael: I have to agree here with Murray. Like I mentioned above, I believe he’d be a great fit with someone like Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota as a coach alongside all those weapons he could throw to.

Murray has never had a receiver like Justin Jefferson and he’s also never had a WR2 like Jordan Addison. I think Minnesota could be the spot where Murray completely reshapes the narrative on his career, not unlike how Sam Darnold did it during the 2024 season.

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