Shares of On Holdings AG have been trading off its highs as investors worry about future prospects amid a resurgence at Nike Inc.
The company’s 52-week high was $64.05 on Jan. 30, 2025, and the low was $34.38 last Friday.
There’s been some concern since April over On’s ability to maintain its growth trajectory. Wall Street expects a solid third quarter report when On posts earnings results on Wednesday. But looking ahead beyond the third quarter is where it gets interesting, with differing views on whether On’s growth track remains sustainable or could begin to decelerate.
Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernández said in a research note on Nov. 5 that the firm will likely see a “natural deceleration” in its growth rate to 20 percent in the third quarter from 32 percent from the previous second quarter as it also laps very strong second half results from last year.
But she noted that doesn’t mean the brand isn’t growing. On the contrary, there’s still “very good traffic” to On stores, along with low promotional activity across the marketplace. She said On should have also “benefited from strength in its tennis category, a strong fall/winter wholesale order book, and price increases taken in July.”
“On has established itself as a premium brand with global appeal, yet still has significant untapped opportunity ahead,” concluded BTIG’s Janine Stichter.
She believes the concerns over a rebounding Nike are “overblown,” adding that On’s growth drivers — across channel, geography, product category and sport — make it less susceptible to Nike’s recent improvement.
“We sense management’s recent comments around the desire to strategically control growth suggest a focus on sustaining strong multi-year gains vs. any indication moderating underlying demand,” Stichter wrote in a research note. “We believe the company is capable of sustaining revenue growth in excess of 20 percent over the medium-term, the highest among the peer group, which should merit a premium valuation.”
Stichter has a $70 price target on shares of On. Looking ahead at the brand’s pipeline, and following the August launch of Cloudzone in co-creation with Zendaya, the analyst said the Cloudboom franchise should receive some halo effect from Hellen Obiri’s course record setting NYC Marathon win on Nov. 2.
First half launches in 2026 will feature the relaunch Cloudmonster 3 and the Cloudrunner 3, two major On franchises. The analyst also said wholesale sell-through remains strong, and her firm’s proprietary checks at run special doors indicate continued share gains, which is expected to flow back to On’s direct-to-consumer channel. She also expects an expansion of the apparel and training categories.
Potential Speed Bumps Ahead
TD Cowen’s John Kernan has a “Buy” rating on shares of On, but last month lowered his price target from $63 a share to $55.
“Running sneaker preference for On among women making $150,000-plus was up 205 percent year-over-year in September,” Kernan noted, adding that the increase highlighted “whitespace” opportunity for the brand.
Kernan described On as a “premium, disruptive brand” with differentiated technology and design. And while On’s premium positioning is considered a competitive advantage, the analyst said that the competition among U.S. listed small- to mid-cap peers in footwear remains “intense.”
It is that increasing competitive intensity — now that Nike’s “not asleep anymore” — that has Jefferies analyst Randal J. Konik lowering his price target on shares of On from $36.45 to $31.00, due to caution beyond third quarter results. He sees signs of demand normalization ahead.
“We expect On Holdings to report solid 3Q results, with net sales growth of 20 percent year-over-year,” helped by new product growth, strength in Asia Pacific sales and apparel traction, and selective price increases that began July 1, Konik said. He noted he’ll be looking for details during management’s conference call on the wholesale order book heading into 2026, “in light of Nike’s channel reset and renewed momentum.”
One key concern is that the performance running category is “rotating back into favor,” which supported On Holding’s recent momentum. With signs of normalization emerging, Hoka’s deceleration in domestic growth and DTC sales offers a “cautionary analog,” the analyst noted.
Konik also detailed that retailers are tightening inventory and cycling through product faster, which could limit upside from aggressive inventory builds. Moreover, Nike’s resurgence in running and wholesale could reclaim shelf space and retailer mindshare from competitors as firms such as On pursue wholesale door expansion.
