What are the tire strategies for the F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

The Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix is just hours away, and if qualifying is any indication, fans could be in for an incredible race. Oscar Piastri pipped George Russell by just 0.082 seconds to take pole position, and the McLaren driver will have teammate Lando Norris behind him when the lights go out, as Norris qualified in third.

However, while qualifying is all about the one-lap pace on the soft compound, the Chinese Grand Prix will be all about race pace on the mediums and the hards. Throughout this week tire degradation, thanks to the newly resurfaced circuit in Shanghai, has been a major factor. That was the case in the F1 Sprint race on Saturday, as Lewis Hamilton ran away from the field in clean air while those behind him struggled to keep their medium tires in the right window over just 19 laps.

How the drivers handle 56 laps is a completely different question.

Pirelli, F1’s exclusive tire supplier, believes that a two-stop strategy for the Chinese Grand Prix is “obligatory,” but how each driver gets home is still matter of debate.

Here are the tire strategies for the Chinese Grand Prix, as well as how many sets of each compound the drivers have available, and why the softs might still be in play when the lights go out. For a reminder, here is how the grid will line up in Shanghai:

What are the tire strategies for the Chinese Grand Prix?

As noted above, tire degradation has been a huge issue for the drivers this week. While the circuit in Shanghai has been resurfaced for this season, leading to increased grip for the drivers, the new surface has also seen drivers tear through tires on extended runs. For example, during the F1 Sprint race Max Verstappen was trying to chase down Hamilton at the front, but by Lap 14 Verstappen told his team that his medium tires were “dead.”

With 56 laps on tap for Sunday, and medium tires wearing out after just 14 laps or so, you can see why Pirelli believes a two-stopper is the path for teams to follow.

“As for strategy, the level of degradation leads us to suggest that a two-stop is obligatory, featuring the Medium and the Hard,” said Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Director of Motorsport, in their recap of Saturday’s action.

Here are the three main options for teams and drivers, as outlined by Pirelli:

The two preferred strategies from Pirelli feature the medium and the hard, both with teams starting on the medium compound.

More on the start in a moment.

The first sees teams start with the medium and switch to the hard for the second stint, but there are options available starting there. In the first option teams will look to run around 12 to 18 laps on the hard compound, before pitting again for another set of hards to go the distance.

In the second option, teams start on the mediums and switch to the hards, extending that second stint a bit to around 14 to 20 laps. Then they would switch to the mediums on that second stop, hoping the softer rubber will allow for quicker times over the final stint, which would run around 12 to 16 laps.

That is possible, given what we saw over the 19-lap F1 Sprint race, but would require some tire management from the drivers. However, that strategy might not be available to one team, which we will discuss in a moment.

Then there is the third strategy, which has drivers start on the softs for around 8 to 14 laps, before finishing with a hard-hard combination. This might be the play for teams hoping to pick up spots at the start on the softer rubber, and we’ll dive into that more in a moment.

There is also another option available to teams not shown here, which is starting on the hards and running long, hoping for intervention in the form of a safety car. Drivers at the back of the grid — looking at you Liam Lawson — might employ this strategy in the hopes of picking up track position as other drivers are forced to pit early on softer compounds, and then capitalizing on any opportunities that arise.

Isola mentioned that possibility in Pirelli’s recap of Saturday’s action.

“In fact, those starting near the back might go for the Hard to extend the first stint as long as possible, before making up places in the run of pit stops,” said Isola.

However, what tires each driver has left comes into play now.

What tires does each driver have available for the Chinese GP?

Here are the compounds each driver has available for the Chinese Grand Prix, according to Pirelli:

Above we noted that one team might not be in position to use the second option, which is a medium-hard-medium strategy.

That team? Aston Martin. Both Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso have just one set of scrubbed mediums available for the Chinese Grand Prix. Given that, they might have to use the first option, where they start on those scrubbed mediums before finishing with a hard-hard combination.

Or, they could be one of the teams that opt to start on the softs, before using the hards to close out the race.

Three drivers — Lawson, Nico Hülkenberg, and Esteban Ocon — each have a pair of new mediums remaining, which gives them some fascinating options as the Chinese Grand Prix unfolds.

You’ll also note that each driver has a pair of fresh hard tires available, another sign that the teams are expecting to rely on the C2 hard tires in the Chinese Grand Prix.

Why might the softs be in play at the Chinese Grand Prix?

As discussed above even with the high levels of tire degradation, the soft C4 compound could still play a role on Sunday.

Why? Because the high levels of grip combined with the soft compound can play a huge role at the start, and teams hoping to pick up spots right when the lights go out might look to the C4 compound to pick up those positions.

Pirelli put that in graphic form here. As you can see the C4 softs give drivers a clear advantage at the start, as drivers on the softs will reach 150 kilometers per hour quicker than those on the mediums, and much quicker than those on the hards:

Of course, the tradeoff comes at the end of the stint, when the grip levels go away for those on the soft compound and they need to dip into the pits before anyone on the mediums or the hards.

Still, for teams with fresh soft tires available, that might be an option. Eight drivers — Lawson, Stroll, Alonso, Pierre Gasly, Jack Doohan, Oliver Bearman, Carlos Sainz Jr., and Gabriel Bortoleto — have fresh sets of softs available.

We will see what options the teams opt for in a few short hours.