US Open tennis rankings for top-25 men’s players, based on championship chances

In professional tennis, the little number next to your name is everything. It’s your seed, your status, your evidence to be taken seriously. “Oh my, did you see that the guy with the 22 next to his name beat the guy with the 3 next to his name?! Wow, what an upset!” And generally, seeding — derived from the ATP rankings coming in along with a smattering of subjectivity — is a decent way to gauge who can win and who can’t. But not always.

For the upcoming US Open, the last major tournament of the year, men’s tennis has about 17 people whose names you should probably know, but for the sake of round numbers (and because I think we kind of hit a wall at the Alexander Bublik/Alexei Popyrin turn), I’m going to rank the ATP Top 25* and tell you who I think has a chance of winning the US Open.

*Disclaimer: to my knowledge, the only Top 25 player who has dropped out due to injury so far is Gregor Dimitrov. That may change in the month before the tournament, so I’ll get to my Denis Shapovalov thoughts if the need arises.

Tier 6: Other names you should probably know, presented in order of ATP rank

BONUS: 49. Joao Fonseca

Our injury replacement for Dimitrov on this list, Fonseca made back-to-back third rounds at majors and is still 18 years old, so ask anyone around men’s tennis who the next thing might be… they’ll point to him.

25. Alexander Bublik

Fiery player who beat Jack Draper at the French Open but lost in the first round at Wimbledon.

24. Francisco Cerundolo

A player on the up-and-up since 2023, Cerundolo is the paragon of men’s tennis’ crowded middle class.

23. Ugo Humbert

Humbert has seemingly been around forever and always is a threat to win a match or two, but I’m not sure how much more than that he is capable of.

22. Tomas Machac

Our second Czech player in four spots, Machac is a 2024 Olympic gold medalist in mixed doubles.

21. Arthur Fils

Ranked 21, age 21, and the top player from France, Fils is a really fun watch with some big wins on hard courts — he toppled Zverev this year in Miami.

20. Grigor Dimitrov (out with pectoral injury)

19. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Currently the highest ranked he’s ever been, he’s the best non-Alcaraz Spaniard on tour and just made the Final of the Citi Open.

18. Jakub Mensik

He’s 19, 6’5” and grabbed a big-time win over Djokovic at the 2025 Miami Open, an ATP Masters 1000-level event.

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Tier 5: The “Nothing to Lose” Dudes

17. Flavio Cobolli

ATP Rank: 17

He’s six years younger than Khachanov and is currently launching an exploratory committee with being an elite player. We are going to have to wait to see if that committee comes back with a better verdict than “take a set off Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarterfinals,” but I’m down for anything.

16. Karen Khachanov

ATP Rank: 16

Khachanov is the ATP’s recent house-money player. Nobody ever expects him to win anything, but he occasionally puts together a nasty run and reminds everybody that they aren’t safe with their rankings. He’s a fun player, but I don’t see him actually winning anything anytime soon.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Tier 4: I’m honestly just confused

15. Casper Ruud

ATP Rank: 13

Slightly better, Ruud has won two matches at majors this year but pulled out of Wimbledon due to injury. There was a good 20 minutes when it seemed like Ruud could be the next thing, but now I don’t know what to think; I haven’t had a lot of reason to believe in the future of Norwegian tennis recently.

14. Daniil Medvedev

ATP Rank: 14

What a fall off for Medvedev, who’s had the year from hell in majors — he’s one one match in three Grand Slams, and that is just insane for the former World Number 1. This is the guy that beat Djokovic in the 2021 US Open Final when he was going for the calendar Grand Slam, and he’s just been unable to hack it this year. I don’t know what happened, but there’s no way it can stay this bad.

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Tier 3: The put up or shut up crew

13. Tommy Paul

ATP Rank: 15

Paul has been playing his best tennis in the last two years, but I still lack evidence that his best tennis is enough to even reach a major final, let alone win one. If you’re looking for an American hopeful, you have three better options.

12. Holger Rune

ATP Rank: 9

Rune is a player I don’t really understand. He has the tools of an elite player of his generation, but has been woefully unsuccessful in five sets. If anything, he’s a bit like a less-successful Jack Draper. Or maybe that’s just because of their backwards hats.

11. Andrey Rublev

ATP Rank: 11

Oh, you guys thought De Minaur was a social experiment in quartefinal failure? Well, let me introduce Rublev, who’s 0-10 all time in major quarterfinals. That’s just cruel and unusual, so Rublev has some demons to deal with before he can be taken seriously as a contender.

10. Frances Tiafoe

ATP Rank: 12

Tiafoe was my main American hope for a while after he pushed Carlos Alcaraz to five sets in the 2022 US Open semifinal, but he hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Fritz or Shelton lately. He plays with tons of fire and possibly digs deeper than anyone else on tour when his back is against the wall, but his game hasn’t evolved with the rest of men’s tennis. He still relies on a topspin-heavy forehand that trades raw speed for spin rate, and doesn’t have the velocity to overpower lesser opponents like others around his level.

9. Alex De Minaur

ATP Rank: 8

De Minaur’s career is like a social experiment of how many quarterfinals you can make without ever getting to a semifinal. It’s honestly sad, and he’s nursing an 0-5 record in the last eight despite playing excellent tennis for years now. Another player with a consistent game that just hasn’t proven anything at the highest level, De Minaur probably needs a favorable draw to break the drought. That or an exorcism.

8. Lorenzo Mussetti

ATP Rank: 10

The hallmark of this group are players I think can be better than they are… but they have to prove it to me. Mussetti is a player I legit like, with one of those “I’m not sure this will work but I’m going to try it anyway” shot diets that make Sinner and Alcaraz so special. Mussetti has a game that looks almost comically like Roger Federer, with the headband and one-handed backhand to boot. But he has real power, and I believe him him as a potential riser on tour.

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Tier 2: Talk yourself into it

7. Taylor Fritz

ATP Rank: 4

I am not Fritz’s biggest fan. I’ve long been skeptical of his ability to beat top players in five-set matches, generally just farming the players he’s supposed to beat and folding once his opponent has a better hand. But beating everyone you’re supposed to beat is a bit of an underrated skill, which allowed Fritz to get to the US Open Final last year on the back of an insanely light draw. Sure, he got railroaded by Sinner in the final, but all he needed was one more lucky break and he could have been a major champion. It’s a really shaky theory, but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Actually, most of the time.

6. Jack Draper

ATP Rank: 5

Draper had an extraordinarily disappointing Wimbledon, ceding the British spotlight to Cameron Norrie after coming in as the overwhelming hometown favorite. Draper does, however, have absurd burst on his serve and plays a consistent, all-court style that is conducive to success in five-set matches. And he’s only 23, so I wouldn’t rule him out.

5. Ben Shelton

ATP Rank: 7

I’m going out on a limb here, but I think Shelton will soon be a regular member of the ATP Top 5. He’s better than both Jack Draper and Taylor Fritz mechanically, and plays a style that can and will propel him past elite challengers. He’s had a really nice year, and has lots of time to grow into his final form. The only question is: will it be good enough?

4. Alexander Zverev

ATP Rank: 3

Zverev has had an up-and-down year, and really an up-and-down career as far as Grand Slams go. He’s basically glorified cannon fodder for whoever happens to be at the top level of men’s tennis, be it Djokovic and Nadal or Sinner and Alcaraz — always doing well on tour but unable to break his personal glass ceiling. He’s gotten unlucky in spots, and has a really modern game with pretty special mobility for his size. He could definitely win a major if he somehow dodges the top two on his path to the final, but that’s not a good bet. It’s much more likely Zverev himself gets upset.

3. Novak Djokovic

ATP Rank: 6

This is where the rankings diverge from methodology, as Djokovic is ranked below three much-younger players but still, in my view, has a better chance in five-set matches. Djokovic got annihilated by Sinner in the Wimbledon Semifinal, and it looks more and more like the GOAT doesn’t have a prayer against men’s tennis’ new royalty. But I’d still probably pick him against any of the other 62 players in the tournament, a testament to how much his game has endured his older age. However, I don’t know how much longer I will be giving the Serbian the benefit of the doubt, so he better savor it.

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Tier 1: Those Two

2. Carlos Alcaraz

ATP Rank: 2

I mean, do I have to explain this tier to anyone anymore? It looks like these will be the Top 2 seeds at every Slam and meet in the final every time… presumably until the heat death of the universe. Sinner is so ridiculously good on hard court, so Alcaraz is second. But like… would I even be one percent surprised if he won the thing? Not at all.

1. Jannik Sinner

ATP Rank: 1

I have no rational reason to predict Carlos Alcaraz will beat Sinner on hard court. The Italian is turning into some sort of Rafael-Nadal-on-clay-except-its-on-hard-court level favorite, having taken the last three Grand Slams on the surface. And I had no rational reason to predict he would beat Alcaraz on grass at Wimbledon either, and then Sinner did it anyway. And he’s thoroughly played himself into shape after his suspension, so by some combination of gut feel and irrefutable evidence, Sinner is the clear favorite. Had he not choked away the French Open final after having three match points, he would be going for the Calendar Grand Slam right now — or winning all four majors in a single year. That hasn’t been done since Rod Laver in 1969.