It’s the second week of the US Open, which can only mean one thing: Top 8 rankings!
However, the US Open schedule does not precisely care about what is easiest for my own deadlines. The schedule of play is very choppy, splitting up the quarterfinals into multiple days and leaving me unable to create coherent Top 8 rankings before the players I write about have already begun the next round. It’s a bit rude of them not to ask me for my schedule, but we soldier on.
Because of this, we’re going to run these rankings in two parts: one for the four men and four women who will play on Tuesday, and a second for the rest who play on Wednesday. That unfortunately means we won’t technically have “Top 8” rankings, but rather rankings of each half of the bracket — if you want to compare them, check the tiers everyone is in, they’ll remain the same across both. But never fear, I’ll be back for real, coherent Final Four lists. Onward!
Women’s Draw (Top Half)
Sabalenka has had a strange year, winning zero of the Grand Slams but also maintaining her World No. 1 ranking all the while. She has had issues with unforced errors all season, and has been prone to beat herself even if no one can actually defeat her. But be all that as it may, Sabalenka still possesses the single scariest thing left in the bracket: ground strokes of mass destruction. I have seen her freeze opponents who are in a perfectly good position simply because her two-handed backhanded was touched by God. Her forehand has a license to kill, and Sabalenka can still overwhelm anyone she faces.
Tier 2: Could win it and nobody would lose sleep, but probably won’t
Pegula was on a collision course with teenage destroyer Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals, but fellow American Taylor Townsend took care of her during her Cinderella run. Because of this, saying she hasn’t had the hardest path through the bracket so far would be a comical understatement. She hasn’t been and will not be tested until she squares off with Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals, and while Pegula has been playing excellent tennis, there’s no proof of concept to pick her over Sabalenka, or Swiatek should she also advance.
The theme of this tier is “people you may not have remembered won a major but actually did so watch out” (see below). Vondrousova snagged the 2023 Wimbledon Championships, is very much in her prime at 26, and is a live underdog even if her path through this thing will go through every top seed imaginable. Even if it’s been a few years since she was Top 10, she has an elite return of serve and tour-best drop shots. And she just destroyed Elena Rybakina. Also, I don’t put major champions in the “I would be floored” tier, so everyone show some respect.
She’s not seeded at the US Open, but don’t be fooled: Krejcikova is a two time major champion, still in her 20s and liable to win this whole dang thing if given half a chance. She leads her lifetime series with Pegula 2-1, and while the former is playing much better as of late, this is a live ball game between the two.
Tier 3: I would be floored
(No one. Congratulations to all)
Men’s Draw (Bottom Half)
It’s almost fitting that we separate these lists by the two number ones (assuming Jannik Sinner advances, that is… never take anything for granted), because it feels truer to give them both the top spot rather than split hairs about hardcourt records and head to heads. We were robbed of a Sinner-Alcaraz hardcourt battle at Cincinnati when Sinner had to retire with injury, but Carlos looks completely healthy and ready to dominate. He faces a tricky opponent in Jiri Lehecka, but not a real threat. Alcaraz is the co-favorite as long as he is standing upright.
Tier 2: Could win it and nobody would lose sleep, but probably won’t
I cannot believe he is in this tier, but it just really, super, duper, ultra, mega, giga feels like Novak is never going to beat both Sinner and Alcaraz back-to-back to win a Grand Slam. There is always a chance that Lehecka beats Carlos and Sinner falls before the final, but I just don’t know how Djokovic can be put in the top tier anymore. With every passing year, he gets less and less physically able to compete.
I almost put him in the next tier, but the hopes of millions of American men’s tennis fans rest entirely on this man’s back so I gave him the benefit of the doubt. Fritz has, for the umpteenth time, proved that his consistency will get him a chance in the last eight of any major. He is like a chameleon, able to gut out any type of match provided his opponent isn’t actually better than him. But he’s just that: a chameleon, not a predator, which he’ll need to be to seal this deal. He will face an all-time gauntlet of Djokovic-Alcaraz-Sinner if he wants to win this thing, and uh… yeah. Fritz is also 0-10 all time against Djokovic. So this doesn’t bode well.
Tier 3: I would be floored
The 23-year-old is a great player, flying up the rankings year after year, and may be a real thing one day. But his quarterfinal berth is probably more a result of his draw lining up perfectly than him threatening to actually win the thing. He’s actually beaten Alcaraz on hardcourt this year, so there’s a chance we witness something crazy. But in a five set match? I wouldn’t bet on it.
