Welcome back to US Open Top 8 rankings, patent pending. We left off during part one ranking the first four members of the quarterfinals, and we are so back for the second half, complete with some industry standards, breakout candidates and some making career comebacks. There’s that, and more, so let’s get this Top 8 rounded out!
Women’s Draw (Bottom Half)
There are four Grand Slams every year, so it can be easy to forget individual matches and what we learn from them. But Iga Swiatek’s Wimbledon Final performance was one hell of a teachable moment — she eviscerated Amanda Anisimova 6-0, 6-0 and put the tennis world on notice that the former world number one is back. She won’t actually be able to take back the top ranking from Sabalenka due to how points have tallied this year, but should she win her second US Open and SEVENTH Grand Slam by the age of 24, we might be talking about something a little more historical than simply “world number one.” She could retire one of the great players of all time, and she’s more than ready to get another stripe on her black belt.
Tier 2: Could win it and nobody would lose sleep, but probably won’t
Goodness gracious this Naomi Osaka run is going hard. She looks like vintage Osaka, with crushing ground strokes a precise serve that she uses to overpower opponents. She calmly destroyed Coco Gauff by responding to shakiness with consistency, and I don’t think any matchup would seriously scare her at this point. But more than anything, it looks like she’s having fun with tennis again, with the crowd completely locked in and helping her believe every step of the way. She could totally win the US Open, but if nothing else, that return to the fun Osaka is pretty darn cool
Sometimes, you think your window is opening, like Amanda Anisimova did at Wimbledon this last year. She made the final, and many plausibly assumed she might be the next big thing in women’s tennis. But then Iga Swiatek brought some plywood and sealed up the window tight, beating her 6-0, 6-0. Well, guess who’s waiting in the quarterfinals for her? That’s right, the very same Swiatek. But fret not: last time was so bad that to rectify it, Anisimova needs more than time to move on. She needs to bring a crowbar, and that motivation may propel her past her recent demon. I certainly believe it can.
In case you haven’t noticed, there’s some sort of Czech Rennaissance happening in tennis — a czechaissance, if you will. And Muchova is looking like one of many Czech 20-somethings trying to remind the world that Czechia has always had its place in big-time tennis. The women’s game has always had good Czech players, but we have THREE in the Top 8 of the US Open. And Muchova wants to join the other two by winning a major, something she is very much capable of. She’s battled a wrist injury since 2024, but she certainly looks back to form. The only real concern is length of her matches so far — every single one has been a three-set battle. But she certainly has a chance.
Tier 3: I would be floored
(Just like yesterday, no one. There’s just so much parity in the women’s game)
Men’s Draw (Bottom Half)
I could try to explain to you why Jannik Sinner is going to win the 2025 US Open, but I wouldn’t do him any justice. I could try to explain to you how horrified every men’s tennis player is at how Sinner methodically and ruthlessly dismantled Alexander Bublik in 21 total games, but I wouldn’t do it any justice either. And I could try to describe to you how impossible it is that Sinner can carve a two-handed backhanded down the line like a torpedo through water, on the run, with his momentum carrying him and the ball and the fabric of the universe the other direction… but I won’t. He’s going to win this thing, simply because nothing I can say will do him any justice.
Tier 2: Could win it and nobody would lose sleep, but probably won’t
Mussetti is a player I continue to believe in, whose fast-paced style of play could bring him to the level of Alcaraz and Sinner if he can just unlock that final gear. And if he’s going to do that, he has his work absolutely cut out for him, facing said Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals. But it’s probably better than he won’t have to face both Alcaraz and Sinner back to back — see below for my thoughts on that happening. It’s still going to be a tall order, but if the Big 2 is going to turn into a Big 3, someone like Mussetti is going to have to do a whole awful lot. Or nothing is going to get better. It’s not.
Tier 3: I would be floored
Oh boy, it’s everyone’s favorite social experiment: “how many major quarterfinals can you reach without winning one?” Currently, the contemporary leader is Andrey Rublev, who is a positively-cruel 0-10, but De Minaur is nursing a personal 0-6 record in quarterfinals. With how often he finds himself in the Top 10, this drought is starting to become as weird as it is unsustainable — like, he has to win one eventually this is absurd.. He has his best chance in a while to get it done against a lower-ranked opponent, so there are good odds we see our first De Minaur semifinal. But he’s in this tier for one reason: he’s not going to beat both Sinner and Alcaraz back-to-back. Nobody is.
I had long given up on Felix as a real Grand Slam contender, but he kinda just punked both Alexander Zverev (3rd in the world) and Andrey Rublev (15th in the world) so now I have to take him seriously. He’s only 25, but has been a mainstay of the tour for eight years and has only reached three total quarterfinals. But here’s the fourth, and Auger-Aliassime will have to beat three consecutive Top 10 players to win this thing. Considering his record against each, I’m not like… predicting that will happen. But it would be pretty cool.
