When the Miami Dolphins take the field in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills, they will do so with a head coach under increasing pressure to keep his job. With Miami clocking in with an 0-2 record, the franchise now 8-11 over the past season-plus, and a “players-only” meeting already in the books, Mike McDaniel is feeling the heat.
Through two games, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has also been underwhelming, and as the Dolphins take the field against the Bills, Tagovailoa does so as, according to several metrics, one of the worst quarterbacks through two games this season.
Tagovailoa’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 5.13 has him ranked 25th in the NFL in that metric, below the league average of 6.07 and behind quarterbacks such as Caleb Williams, Spencer Rattler, and even Mac Jones. His QBR of 22.3 is 32nd in the league, ahead of only J.J. McCarthy and Cam Ward, a first-year starter and a rookie.
Looking at some more advanced metrics, Tagovailoa’s Expected Points Added per Dropback clocks in at -0.12 through two games, fourth-worst in the NFL. Only Joe Flacco, Ward, and McCarthy are worse this season. Continuing with that statistic, this graphic from Ben Baldwin illustrates both EPA and grades from Pro Football Focus:
As you can see, Tagovailoa is well below league average in both categories.
Finally, a look at Baldwin’s Quarterback Efficiency, which examines EPA and Completion Percentage Over Expectation. To his credit, Tagovailoa is above league average in CPOE — although this may be a testament to his willingness to throw into coverage and push the ball downfield — but again, the EPA number stands out:
Turning to the film, another pattern forms.
A quarterback that still locks onto targets early in a down, leads defenders to the football with his eyes, and misses underneath defenders and/or defenders breaking downhill.
Let’s start with a play from last season. In this Week 15 game against the Houston Texans, the Dolphins trail 10-6 just before halftime. Already on the cusp of field goal range, facing a 2nd-and-6 at the Houston 39-yard line, Tagovailoa tests the middle of the Houston defense.
While the Texans show him single-high coverage before the snap, they spin into Cover 2, dropping safety Calen Bullock down into the hole between the two deep defenders. Tagovailoa wants to hit Tyreek Hill on a quick in-breaking route, but the rotation in the secondary puts Bullock right in the throwing lane.
Tagovailoa never sees it, and frankly, never even looks for it.
Instead of at least a field goal before halftime to make this a one-point game, the Dolphins end up going to the locker room down 13-9, as the Texans add a field goal on the final play of the half.
Now, two of Tagovailoa’s three interceptions from this season. We’ll start with this play from Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts. Tagovailoa initially checks a concept to his right, but when he does not like the look, he gets his eyes to a crossing route from Malik Washington.
And as he stares that down, he leads Laiatu Latu right to the football:
Rewatch this play and keep an eye on Latu, who starts out showing blitz over the right tackle before dropping underneath. He is just reading Tagovailoa the whole way, and gets into position for the interception while the QB just misses him.
Finally, take this interception from last week’s loss to the New England Patriots. With Miami trailing by four just before the two-minute warning, the Dolphins faced a 4th-and-9.
Tagovailoa is pressured, but climbs the pocket to buy some time. As he does, he gets his eyes on another crossing route from Washington. But again, he misses a defender underneath, who is right in the throwing lane:
McDaniel is certainly under pressure heading into the Week 3 game.
If he is to turn his own season around, Tagovailoa needs to start in Week 3.
By spotting some of these underneath defenders.
