The matchup in the 2025 NBA Finals shouldn’t be as surprising as it feels at first blush.
Doubting the Oklahoma City Thunder was always a fool’s errand. The Thunder won 68 games this year, tied for the sixth-most ever, while posting the second-best net-rating ever behind the 72-win 1996 Chicago Bulls. It wasn’t exactly hard to see this coming: OKC was the best team in the West a year ago, but suffered the growing pains expected from such a young team with a second round playoff exit. The Thunder roared back even stronger this year after adding two perfect role players in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein who at once accentuated their strengths (forcing takeaways) and addressed their weaknesses (rebounding and front court depth). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won MVP after finishing top-5 in voting the previous two years, and Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams morphed into All-NBA caliber co-stars. In an era when teams want to win with the three ball, the Thunder became a super team because of their defense. OKC allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions in the league by a mile fueled by a historic ability to force turnovers.
It only took one playoff game this season for us to conclude the Indiana Pacers’ conference finals run a year ago was no fluke. After a 9-14 start, Indiana found its groove by reorienting around Tyrese Haliburton’s high-octane attack with newfound balance. The Pacers still pushed the tempo and scored in bunches like they did early last season, but now they had more size, more defense, and more counters with the addition of Pascal Siakam. When the playoffs started, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith took their game to a new level, providing excellent 3-and-D skill sets and running with Haliburton at every opportunity. Myles Turner, always overlooked, keyed the team’s five-out look on offense, and the bench developed into one of the best units in the league. The Pacers thread the needle between playing fast, moving the ball, and not turning the ball over. Since that 9-14 start, Indiana is 52-22 including the playoffs.
The Thunder were the best team in the NBA all year. The Pacers have cemented that their style is built for the postseason, proving that “the game slows down in the playoffs” only applies when you let it happen. This NBA Finals series is proves that parity rules the modern league, the possession battle is key, and trading Paul George is always a good idea.
OKC enters this series as a heavy favorite, but there is a pathway to a competitive Finals for Indiana.
How the Pacers can pull an all-time NBA Finals upset
It’s easy to reduce success in the today’s NBA to who makes the most threes, but this NBA Finals battle turns that on its head. Shooting will be important, of course, but this series is really about turnovers.
The Thunder and the Pacers are the two best teams at avoiding turnovers on offense in 2025. The Thunder force turnovers on defense at a historic rate, and when they can grab steals, it’s off the races the other way for two points. If the Thunder can turn the Pacers over consistently, a short series and possibly a sweep is on the table. If the Pacers can continue to avoid turnovers the way they have all season, this series starts to get really interesting.
Haliburton’s special skill is an ability to throw crosscourt passes without turning the ball over. That works to the Pacers’ advantage in two ways in this series: it keeps the Thunder out of transition, and it opens up corner three looks that the Thunder routinely surrender. OKC’s plan is to pack the paint defensively, and bet that they can close out to the three-point line with length and speed to force misses when the ball gets kicked out.
The Thunder allowed the most corner three attempts this year in both the regular season and playoffs, per NBA.com. The Nuggets only made 25.8 percent of their corner threes in the second round matchup against OKC, and it cost them the series. The Wolves made better than 37 percent of their corner threes, a decent but not great number, but they couldn’t avoid turnovers.
The Pacers are an elite corner three shooting team. Indiana made 40.6 percent of its corner threes in the regular season, a top-5 mark in the NBA. In the playoffs, the Pacers are shooting a scorching 46.9 percent from the corners. They’re the only team in the postseason above 41 percent.
That’s the battle of this series: can the Pacers avoid turnovers against the Thunder’s amazing defense? If so, can they work the ball to the corner and continue hitting their shots? The first part of creating the corner three is driving into the paint and forcing a defensive rotation. Can the Pacers guards do that without turning the ball over? That’s where this series will be won and lost, and there’s no better guard to trust at the controls than Haliburton.
NBA Finals 2025 prediction: Thunder in 6
The Thunder are the best team in the NBA, and they’ve put together what is statistically one of the greatest seasons of all-time. OKC enters the NBA Finals at 80-18 overall between the regular season and the playoffs. They have posted a net-rating in double-figures in both the regular season and playoffs entering the Finals. The Thunder are better than the Pacers, and that makes them an easy pick to win on the surface level.
The premier matchup of this series will be the Pacers offense vs. the Thunder defense, which has a chance to be electric. I’m more concerned about the other end of the floor for Indiana: The Thunder are a damn good offense too, and I’m not sure the Pacers can slow them down. It all goes back to the MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been every bit as good in the playoffs as he was in the regular season.
For the playoffs, SGA is averaging 29.8 points on 58 percent true shooting. That’s far below his regular season scoring efficiency of 63.7 percent true shooting, but it’s still impressive for a player with his scoring volume and usage. The Pacers are a much worse defensive team than the Wolves, and SGA carved them up well. I don’t see anyone on Indiana having the ability to slow down the MVP, and that’s the biggest trump card in this series.
Nembhard did a good job on Jalen Brunson in the conference finals, and he’s an impossibly tough cover for his quickness, strength, and craft. Brunson is also 6’2 with a 6’4 wingspan. Gilgeous-Alexander is 6’6 with a 7-foot wingspan. Nembhard (6-foot-4.5 in shoes with a with a 6-foot-5.75 wingspan) is just too small to cover him. The Pacers should try Nesmith on SGA … but then who guards Jalen Williams?
The other thing that scares me from Indiana’s perspective is lineups with Chet Holmgren at the five. The Thunder might be best served to retire the double-big lineups with Holmgren and Hartenstein, and instead just let Chet cook. Holmgren will feast on pick-and-pops against Turner in this series, and he’s way better at attacking closeouts than people realize. He’s going to be the second most important Thunder player in this series, and if he plays well, Indy can’t compete.
The Thunder’s iso heavy offensive style is perfect for this series. The Pacers don’t really have a weak link defensively, but Gilgeous-Alexander can still shoot over the top of Nembhard, or slither through the rest of their defenders on his way to the rim. This series will be a coronation not just for everything Sam Presti has built in Oklahoma City, but for SGA as one of the greatest guards we’ve ever seen.
2025 NBA Finals MVP prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SGA is having an all-time great season for a guard. He’s so much more than a free throw merchant, and he’s going to solidify his season for the ages with a Finals MVP trophy.
Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 45-for-94 (47.9 percent) from mid-range this season, a great number. In the regular season, he made nearly 69 percent of his attempts at the rim. The two weaker points in SGA’s game are his three-point shooting and his playmaking, but he’s still capable in both eras. If I was coaching the Pacers, I’d dare SGA to shoot pull-up threes and hope he misses. When gets downhill, it’s already game over for the defense.
The Thunder are a championship-worthy team, and SGA is worthy ‘best player on the best team’ Finals MVP candidate. I think Indy can keep this series close, but ultimately the Thunder are just too good.
