As the trade war between the U.S. and China reignites, the Department of Transportation is considering banning Chinese airlines that fly through Russian airspace. While this might just be another bargaining chip in negotations between the two countries, the stated intention is to reduce the competitive gap that Russia has inadvertently created between American and Chinese planes. The Kremlin closed off its skies to Western aircraft after sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine; thus, flights from the U.S. have to take a longer route to reach China. Russia doesn’t restrict Chinese flights, however, giving those airlines shorter flight times and attracting more passengers.
As reported by Reuters, this all gets a bit squirrely, since some Chinese flights already can’t use Russian airspace if they want to land in America. The longest non-stop flight in the world right now only wins that title because of this exact reason. The context here is that, in 2023, DOT cut a deal with these airlines that allowed them to operate more frequently on the condition that the new flights avoided Russia. But those already running could keep flying where they’d always flown. It’s those latter ones that are potentially on the chopping block.
Turbulence from America to China
These are two pretty big countries with the largest economies in the world. You might think that flights between them would be common. You’d be wrong: flights between North America and China are actually the least flown of all regions, and it’s by design. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, there were around 150 such flights per week; during lockdown, DOT restricted that to just 35, only opened them back up to 50 in 2024. This is policy, not coincidence.
So it’s already pretty tough to be an airline that wants to fly these routes. Making American planes fly longer paths, while (some) Chinese planes don’t have to, has obviously put the former in a bind. The extra flight time comes with more penalties than just driving passengers away: it also means those planes have to reduce weight, meaning either ticket or luggage restrictions. So as you might expect, the Chinese carriers are arguing that this new rule shouldn’t be implemented, while United Airlines is actually arguing that more foreign airlines should be subject to the new rule. Imagine that!
This could all just be saber-rattling as the trade war heats back up again, and it’s possible this proposed rule will never be implemented. Then again, Russia could always just stop invading Ukraine and re-open its skies to the West. Really, that’s the best option.
