The Stars have disappeared at the worst possible time. On Tuesday night Dallas lost once more to the Oilers, their third in a row — and to rub salt in the wound they’ve been outscored 13-2 total during the series. Now down 3-1 and on the precipice of defeat this Dallas team is on the verge of realizing that their $100M gambit didn’t pay off, actually putting them further behind as a result.
Of course I’m talking about Mikko Rantanen, whose hot-and-cold playoffs are unlike anything we’ve seen in recent years. Rantanen came out slow in the first round against Colorado, which was blamed on acclimating to Dallas and the emotion of the series — then he was absolutely on fire as he single-handedly dismantled the Winnipeg Jets. Now? In four games he’s contributed just two assists, eight shots, at a -3 against Edmonton.
There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with two goals in a Western Conference Final series. The issue is that the expectation was just so much more than that. Dallas sent a massive haul to Carolina to get Rantanen at the deadline with the belief he could be the guy to match up against the top line star power the Oilers used to best Dallas a year ago. So far that hasn’t come to fruition.
If we look at the top contributors this series he’s lagging far behind the pack.
1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM): 2 goals, 7 assists — 9 points
T2. Connor McDavid (EDM): 2 goals, 5 assists — 7 points
T2. Leon Draisaitl (EDM): 2 goals, 5 assists — 7 points
4. Evan Bouchard (EDM): 2 goals, 3 assists — 5 points
5. Zach Hyman (EDM): 2 goals, 1 assist — 3 points
T6. Mikko Rantanen (DAL): 0 goals, 2 assists — 2 points
The guy who was supposed to be mixing it up with McDavid and Draisaitl this series is instead behind guys who aren’t playing on anything close to a $96M contract. While it’s certainly fair to say that Rantanen is more of a pure scorer who needs a setup man, his lack of production isn’t exactly doing much to assuage the fears that he isn’t a $100M player without Nate McKinnon to feed him the puck.
Rantanen is the tip of the iceberg, though. At least he’s doing something out there. In this three game slide the Stars haven’t just been outplayed, they’ve been outmuscled. Something that should never happen against Edmonton. That’s been the Oilers’ achilles heel, and the biggest reason they lost to Florida a year ago. They simply aren’t constructed to out muscle opponents and boast a finesse game, but in this series they’re both out finessing the Stars and playing tougher hockey.
It’s here where Zach Hyman deserves his flowers. It’s a damn shame he was injured in the first period on Tuesday night, because nobody is out-working him these playoffs. Hyman has transformed from a solid mid-line guy, to a monster bruiser these playoffs — leading all players with an astounding 111 hits, including 31 against Dallas. Hyman will miss the rest of the playoffs with the announcement he needs surgery, but he deserves being more than a footnote in this series.
If Edmonton close out the Western Conference Finals on Thursday night they will have beaten Dallas in five games. Last year the Stars took them to six. That’s an effective backslide from where the team was a year ago, and lest we forget that Dallas gave up a lot in the Rantanen deal. One of their top prospects in Logan Stankoven was sent to Carolina, and he has more points against the Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals than Rantanen has in the WCF. That’s before we talk about the two first round picks and two third round picks Dallas is sending the Hurricanes in that deal.
The Stars are simply too good to struggle this much. I had them picked before the playoffs to make a run all the way to the Stanley Cup, now they’re back in the exact same spot as they were a year ago. It appears Dallas just doesn’t have the gas, and it might be their last best chance with Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, and Evgenii Dadanov set to become unrestricted free agents, while Jake Oettinger could get interest on an offer sheet as a restricted free agent.
The now is bad for Dallas. The future might be worse.
