Similar to inches, the numbers you need in football are all around you.
Over the years, football has become a game of numbers. And like the inches you need in football, the numbers you need to win are all around you, whether you are watching on television or coaching from the sideline. Whether on a fourth-down decision, the discussion of metrics such as Expected Points Added (EPA) or Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) or in some other fashion, numbers have become commonplace in today’s NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks are in the Super Bowl with one of the league’s best defenses on their side.
A unit that has flipped the numbers on their head.
Before diving into the numbers on the field, let’s take a look at some of the numbers — and results — off the field. Let’s start with Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), where the Seahawks have set the standard:
Speaking of EPA, here is how the Seahawks stacked up in EPA against both the run and the pass during the regular season:
That is an elite unit, that has continued that level of play in the playoffs:
You may also note that by this analysis, the New England Patriots have been even better on the defensive side of the football in the postseason. Therein lies New England’s path to a win in Super Bowl LX: If they can get their defense to deliver one more elite game — and perhaps force the “Bad Sam Darnold Game” then the Patriots can pull off the upset.
The numbers and metrics speak to Seattle’s defensive prowess, but the numbers on the field tell the story of how Mike Macdonald and company have delivered these results.
And those numbers are rooted in personnel.
Over the past few seasons in the NFL, offenses have gotten bigger with their personnel packages. Take the Los Angeles Rams for example, who turned the league on its head with their increased used of 13 offensive personnel: One running back, one wide receiver, and three tight ends. While 11 personnel (three wide receivers) remains the norm across the league, the push-and-pull of schematic design has started to swing in the other direction.
Simply put, as offenses got lighter with their personnel groupings, defenses adjusted with more nickel and dime packages. Now, teams are getting bigger in response, such as the Rams’ example above.
Some defenses have leaned into more base packages.
The Seahawks had five or more defensive backs on the field for 92.5 percent of their defensive snaps during the regular season, the most in the league according to NFL Next Gen Stats. While that number ticked down a bit in the playoffs — Seattle lined up for 107 of their 121 defensive snaps over two playoff games with five or more defensive backs on the field, for 88% of their defensive snaps — that is still a staggering number.
But beyond the personnel on the field, is the manner in which Macdonald deployed his defense. Instead of dropping a safety down in the box to help protect against the run, for the most part Seattle has stayed with two-deep coverages, keeping both safeties deep, leaving Macdonald trusting his defensive line up front at the point of attack, and his secondary to run the alley after the snap, against the run.
That has worked, to an impressive degree. Despite playing more nickel and dime than any other team this year, the Seahawks held opponents to a league-low 3.7 yards per carry in the regular season, all while running their streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher to 26 games.
That streak continued in the playoffs. Against the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round, quarterback Brock Purdy was the 49ers’ leading rusher.
With 37 yards gained on the ground.
Against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game? Blake Corum led the way for the Rams on the ground, with 55 yards.
So, how has Seattle been able to do this?
Thanks to talent at all levels of their defense.
It starts up front, with their rotation of defensive linemen that includes Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy II, DeMarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall, and Boye Mafe. Players on the interior such as Murphy, Williams, and Reed swallow up blockers, despite often being outnumbered at the point of attack. But their willingness to do the dirty work creates opportunities for linebackers Ernest Jones IV and Drake Thomas at the second level, and players such as defensive backs Devon Witherspoon and rookie Nick Emmanwori who are not afraid to come downhill against the run.
Take this play from Seattle’s Week 18 win over the 49ers. San Francisco comes out with 21 offensive personnel: One tight end, two running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Juszczyk) and two wide receivers.
Seattle counters with five defensive backs, and they show both safeties deep before the snap. They are quite literally daring Kyle Shanahan to call a running play.
Which he does, and it goes for just a two-yard gain:
Stopping this run starts up front, with the pair of double-team blocks on Williams and Murphy. While the 49ers are able to contain Williams, Murphy holds up against his double just enough and resets after initial contact, giving him a path to McCaffrey. Add in Emmanwori, who slid down into the box almost as a third linebacker, and the 49ers are held to a two-yard gain.
Or take this play, where the defensive linemen all slant to their left, while Jones loops around over the top:
This is a 2nd-and-5 play, and the 49ers have a pair of tight ends in the game. But Seattle stays true to their numbers by staying in nickel, and they hold this play to a one-yard gain.
This trend continued in the playoffs, as Seattle continued to stop the run — even against bigger personnel packages — out of their nickel defense. On this play from the Divisional Round, McCaffrey runs behind both a tight end and a fullback. But with five defensive backs on the field, led by safety Julian Love crashing downhill, Seattle snuffs this run out before it gets going:
Remember moments ago, when we mentioned the Rams’ willingness to play with 13 offensive personnel and have three tight ends in the game? In the NFC Championship Game, Los Angeles did just that on this under-center run with Kyren Williams.
Watch how the Seahawks, again with extra defensive backs in the game, stopped this run for no gain even with three tight ends on the field:
Of note here is how Lawrence stands up his blocker, controlling the line of scrimmage. That forces a cut behind the line of scrimmage from the running back, and soon enough reinforcements arrive, holding this play to no gain.
These plays highlight what the Seahawks defense has been able to do against the run, even with the numbers tilted against them. But where their reliance on nickel and dime packages truly stands out is against the pass. As noted above, numbers are part of the game these days, starting with Expected Points Added.
Again, look above at how the Seahawks fared both in the regular season, and in the playoffs, in EPA against both the run and the pass.
While the Seahawks were the league’s best in terms of Rush EPA/Play allowed during the regular season, they are no slouch against the pass. Numbers help there too, because with extra defensive backs on the field, they are able to cover better in the secondary.
But the most curious part of how Seattle has crafted their defense is this: They get pressure without blitzing, which keeps the numbers in the secondary in their favor. During the regular season, the Seahawks pressured opposing passers on 26.1% of dropbacks, sixth-most in the NFL. They racked up 47 sacks, seventh-most in the league.
They did that while blitzing on just 19.3% of their snaps, the seventh-lowest blitz rate in the league.
That is the magic serum for any defense: Pressure without blitzing, and winning the numbers game in the secondar.
Take this sack of Brock Purdy from Week 18:
Facing 3rd-and-3, the 49ers put Purdy into an empty formation and release five receivers into the route concept, including McCaffrey who chips Lawrence before releasing into his route. But Seattle drops seven into zone coverage against the five receivers, and every route or throwing lane is taken away from Purdy.
Eventually, time runs out. With the numbers working against Purdy, he has nowhere to go with the football, and the pocket finally breaks down around him.
Seattle’s pressure numbers have dipped a bit in the playoffs, as the Seahawks have recorded just three sacks in their two playoff games.
But all three of those sacks came with extra defensive backs on the field, and just four pass rushers going after the quarterback. Take, for example, this play against the 49ers from the Divisional Round:
This is a 4th-and-2 situation from early in the third quarter. Kyle Shanahan keeps six in to block on this play, including running back Brian Robinson Jr., which leaves just four receivers in the route concept. Seattle, however, rushes just four and they have six defensive backs in the game.
Again, this is 4th-and-2.
But Purdy has nowhere to go, and eventually the pocket collapses and the Seahawks finish the drive with a sack.
Or take this example from the NFC Championship Game:
Once again, the offense keeps six in initially to protect the quarterback, as running back Ronnie Rivers chips before releasing to the flat. But Seattle again counters with six defensive backs, and Stafford simply runs out of time as the pocket collapses around him.
Of course, the big question is how this trend might continue in Super Bowl LX. During the regular season, after all, Drake Maye and the Patriots offense had one of the more explosive passing games, as they generated 69 passing plays of 20 yards or more, second only to … the Los Angeles Rams.
That right there might be your answer.
