Friday, May 30, 2025
No menu items!
HomeNatureThe pivot penalty in research

The pivot penalty in research

  • Bush, V. Science, the Endless Frontier: A Report to the President (US Government Printing Office, 1945).

  • Omenn, G. S. Grand challenges and great opportunities in science, technology, and public policy. Science 314, 1696–1704 (2006).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ahmadpoor, M. & Jones, B. F. The dual frontier: patented inventions and prior scientific advance. Science 357, 583–587 (2017).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Yang, P. & Wang, X. COVID-19: a new challenge for human beings. Cell. Mol. Immunol. 17, 555–557 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Field, C. B. et al. (eds) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).

  • March, J. G. Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Org. Sci. 2, 71–87 (1991).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Azoulay, P., Fons-Rosen, C. & Zivin, J. S. G. Does science advance one funeral at a time? Am. Econ. Rev. 109, 2889–2920 (2019).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Uzzi, B., Mukherjee, S., Stringer, M. & Jones, B. Atypical combinations and scientific impact. Science 342, 468–472 (2013).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rosenkopf, L. & Nerkar, A. Beyond local search: boundary‐spanning, exploration, and impact in the optical disk industry. Strateg. Manag. J. 22, 287–306 (2001).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fleming, L. Recombinant uncertainty in technological search. Manag. Sci. 47, 117–132 (2001).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Liu, L., Dehmamy, N., Chown, J., Giles, C. L. & Wang, D. Understanding the onset of hot streaks across artistic, cultural, and scientific careers. Nat. Commun. 12, 5392 (2021).

  • Jones, B. F. The burden of knowledge and the “death of the renaissance man”: is innovation getting harder? Rev. Econ. Stud. 76, 283–317 (2009).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Leahey, E. Not by productivity alone: how visibility and specialization contribute to academic earnings. Am. Sociol. Rev. 72, 533–561 (2007).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Arts, S. & Fleming, L. Paradise of novelty—or loss of human capital? Exploring new fields and inventive output. Org. Sci. 29, 1074–1092 (2018).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Gross, D. P. & Sampat B. N. The economics of crisis innovation policy: a historical perspective. AEA Pap. Proc. 111, 346–350 (2021).

  • Bornmann, L. What is societal impact of research and how can it be assessed? A literature survey. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. Technol. 64, 217–233 (2013).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Cameron, D. E., Bashor, C. J. & Collins, J. J. A brief history of synthetic biology. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 12, 381–390 (2014).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Global Change Research Needs and Opportunities for 2022-2031 (National Academies Press, 2021).

  • Myers, K. The elasticity of science. Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ. 12, 103–134 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Teece, D. J., Pisano, G. & Shuen, A. Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strateg. Manag. J. 18, 509–533 (1997).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Saxenian, A. Regional Advantage: Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128 (Harvard Univ. Press, 1996).

  • Chatterji, A. K. Spawned with a silver spoon? Entrepreneurial performance and innovation in the medical device industry. Strateg. Manag. J. 30, 185–206 (2009).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Azoulay, P., Zivin, J. S. G. & Manso, G. Incentives and creativity: evidence from the academic life sciences. RAND J. Econ. 42, 527–554 (2011).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kaplan, D. How to improve peer review at NIH: a revamped process will engender innovative research. Scientist 19, 10–11 (2005).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Kuhn, T. S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Univ. Chicago Press, 1962).

  • Hull, D. L., Tessner, P. D. & Diamond, A. M. Planck’s principle. Science 202, 717–723 (1978).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Banerjee, A. V. A simple model of herd behavior. Q. J. Econ. 107, 797–817 (1992).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Jones, B. F. in Innovation Policy and the Economy Vol. 11 (eds Lerner, J. & Stern, S.) 103–131 (Univ. Chicago Press, 2011).

  • Jia, T., Wang, D. & Szymanski, B. K. Quantifying patterns of research-interest evolution. Nat. Hum. Behav. 1, 0078 (2017).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Foster, J. G., Rzhetsky, A. & Evans, J. A. Tradition and innovation in scientists’ research strategies. Am. Sociol. Rev. 80, 875–908 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Stoeger, T. & Amaral, L. A. N. Meta-research: COVID-19 research risks ignoring important host genes due to pre-established research patterns. eLife 9, e61981 (2020).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Zuckerman, E. W., Kim, T.-Y., Ukanwa, K. & von Rittmann, J. Robust identities or nonentities? Typecasting in the feature-film labor market. Am. J. Sociol. 108, 1018–1073 (2003).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lee, Y.-N., Walsh, J. P. & Wang, J. Creativity in scientific teams: unpacking novelty and impact. Res. Policy 44, 684–697 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kelly, B., Papanikolaou, D., Seru, A. & Taddy, M. Measuring technological innovation over the long run. Am. Econ. Rev. Insights 3, 303–320 (2021).

  • Zeng, A. et al. Increasing trend of scientists to switch between topics. Nat. Commun. 10, 3439 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lahiri, A. & Wadhwa, A. When do serial entrepreneurs found innovative ventures? Evidence from patent data. Small Bus. Econ. 57, 1973–1993 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Azoulay, P., Jones, B. F., Kim, J. D. & Miranda, J. Age and high-growth entrepreneurship. Am. Econ. Rev. Insights 2, 65–82 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Manso, G. Motivating innovation. J. Finance 66, 1823–1860 (2011).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Merton, R. K. The Matthew effect in science. Science 159, 56–63 (1968).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bol, T., de Vaan, M. & van de Rijt, A. The Matthew effect in science funding. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 4887–4890 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Leung, M. D. Dilettante or renaissance person? How the order of job experiences affects hiring in an external labor market. Am. Sociol. Rev. 79, 136–158 (2014).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Wuchty, S., Jones, B. F. & Uzzi, B. The increasing dominance of teams in production of knowledge. Science 316, 1036–1039 (2007).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Marx, M. & Fuegi, A. Reliance on science: worldwide front‐page patent citations to scientific articles. Strateg. Manag. J. 41, 1572–1594 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kogan, L., Papanikolaou, D., Seru, A. & Stoffman, N. Technological innovation, resource allocation, and growth. Q. J. Econ. 132, 665–712 (2017).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kovács, B., Hsu, G. & Sharkey, A. The stickiness of category labels: audience perception and evaluation of producer repositioning in creative markets. Manag. Sci. 70, 6315–6335 (2024).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Petersen, A. M., Jung, W.-S., Yang, J.-S. & Stanley, H. E. Quantitative and empirical demonstration of the Matthew effect in a study of career longevity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 18–23 (2011).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Jones, B., Reedy E. J. & Weinberg B. A. Age and scientific genius. Working paper 19866 (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014).

  • Furman, J. L. & Stern, S. Climbing atop the shoulders of giants: the impact of institutions on cumulative research. Am. Econ. Rev. 101, 1933–1963 (2011).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Koyré, A. An unpublished letter of Robert Hooke to Isaac Newton. Isis 43, 312–337 (1952).

    Article 
    MathSciNet 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Einstein, A. The World As I See It (Citadel, 1949).

  • Schweitzer, S. & Brendel, J. in Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Academia (eds Lehmann, E. E., Meoli, M. & Paleari, S.) Ch. 3 (Routledge, 2022).

  • Schumpeter, J. A. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (Harper & Brothers, 1942).

  • Usher, A. P. A History of Mechanical Inventions (Courier, 1954).

  • Weitzman, M. L. Recombinant growth. Q. J. Econ. 113, 331–360 (1998).

    Article 
    MathSciNet 

    Google Scholar
     

  • He, Y. & Luo, J. The novelty ‘sweet spot’ of invention. Des. Sci. 3, e21 (2017).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fang, F. C., Steen, R. G. & Casadevall, A. Misconduct accounts for the majority of retracted scientific publications. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 17028–17033 (2012).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lu, S. F., Jin, G. Z., Uzzi, B. & Jones, B. The retraction penalty: evidence from the Web of Science. Sci. Rep. 3, 3146 (2013).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Azoulay, P., Furman, J. L. & Krieger, F. M. Retractions. Rev. Econ. Stat. 97, 1118–1136 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Blackwell, M., Iacus, S., King, G. & Porro, G. Cem: coarsened exact matching in Stata. Stata J. 9, 524–546 (2009).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Open Science Collaboration Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science 349, aac4716 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Zhang, Y., Cai, X., Fry, C. V., Wu, M. & Wagner, C. S. Topic evolution, disruption and resilience in early COVID-19 research. Scientometrics 126, 4225–4253 (2021).

  • Ioannidis, J. P. A., Bendavid, E., Salholz-Hillel, M., Boyack, K. W. & Baas, J. Massive covidization of research citations and the citation elite. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119, e2204074119 (2022).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ioannidis, J. P. A., Salholz-Hillel, M., Boyack, K. W. & Baas, J. The rapid, massive growth of COVID-19 authors in the scientific literature. R. Soc. Open Sci. 8, 210389 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Else, H. How a torrent of COVID science changed research publishing – in seven charts. Nature 588, 553 (2020).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fry, C. V., Cai, X., Zhang, Y. & Wagner, C. S. Consolidation in a crisis: patterns of international collaboration in early COVID-19 research. PLoS ONE 15, e0236307 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Yin, Y., Gao, J., Jones, B. F. & Wang, D. Coevolution of policy and science during the pandemic. Science 371, 128–130 (2021).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kousha, K. & Thelwall, M. COVID-19 publications: database coverage, citations, readers, tweets, news, Facebook walls, Reddit posts. Quant. Sci. Stud. 1, 1068–1091 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Wang, D., Song, C. & Barabási, A.-L. Quantifying long-term scientific impact. Science 342, 127–132 (2013).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Wu, L., Wang, D. & Evans, J. A. Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology. Nature 566, 378–382 (2019).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Jones, B. F. & Weinberg, B. A. Age dynamics in scientific creativity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 18910–18914 (2011).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Tushman, M. L. & Anderson, P. Technological discontinuities and organizational environments. Adm. Sci. Q. 31, 439–465 (1986).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Henderson, R. M. & Clark K. B., Architectural innovation: the reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms. Adm. Sci. Q. 35, 9–30 (1990).

  • Chatterji, A. & Patro, A. Dynamic capabilities and managing human capital. Acad. Manag. Perspect. 28, 395–408 (2014).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Granstrand, O. & Sjölander, S. The acquisition of technology and small firms by large firms. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 13, 367–386 (1990).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Markowitz, H. M. Foundations of portfolio theory. J. Finance 46, 469–477 (1991).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Goolsbee, A. Does government R&D policy mainly benefit scientists and engineers? Am. Econ. Revi. 88, 298–302 (1998).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Jones, B. F. & Summers, L. H. A calculation of the social returns to innovation. Working paper 27863 (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020).

  • Azoulay, P., Jones, B., Kim, J. D. & Miranda, J. Immigration and entrepreneurship in the United States. Working paper 27778 (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020).

  • Berkes, E., Deschenes, O., Gaetani, R., Lin, J. & Severen, C. Lockdowns and innovation: evidence from the 1918 flu pandemic. Working paper 28152 (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020).

  • Diamond, J. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Penguin, 2011).

  • Hidalgo, C. A., Klinger, B., Barabási, A.-L. & Hausmann, R. The product space conditions the development of nations. Science 317, 482–487 (2007).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Starr, E. & Goldfarb, B. Binned scatterplots: a simple tool to make research easier and better. Strateg. Manag. J. 41, 2261–2274 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Correia, S. reghdfe: Stata module for linear and instrumental-variable/GMM regression absorbing multiple levels of fixed effects. Statistical Software Components s457874, Boston College Department of Economics (2017).

  • Marx, M. & Fuegi, A. Reliance on science in patenting. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5803985 (2021).

  • Hill, R. et al. Replication materials for ‘The pivot penalty in research’. Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.28074941 (2025).

  • RELATED ARTICLES

    Most Popular

    Recent Comments