The New England Patriots are headed to Super Bowl LX thanks to the greatest turnaround in NFL history. After finishing with a 4-13 record last season, New England has a chance to take home the Lombardi Trophy, and the Patriots are the first team in league history to advance to a Super Bowl after losing 13 games the prior year.
Yet, while there are many reasons for their turnaround, one in particular has drawn the attention of fans all over the league.
As we will highlight in a moment, New England did not have the toughest path to the playoffs. And once they got to the postseason, they encountered some more breaks along the way. So just how easy was New England’s schedule, and will it matter in the Super Bowl?
Let’s dive into that question and more.
How easy was New England’s schedule?
Let’s start with some top-line numbers, before diving into New England’s schedule a bit deeper.
The Patriots’ opponents finished 113-176 this year. That is a winning percentage of just .391, which was the lowest strength of schedule of any team in the NFL this season. In fact, New England was the only team with a sub-.400 opponents’ winning percentage in the league this year.
Where does that rank historically?
According to CBS Sports, it is tied for the third-easiest strength of schedule in the past 50 seasons. The 1999 St. Louis Rams faced a strength of schedule of just .363, followed by the 1979 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at .379. Then come the 2025 Patriots, along with the 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars, who also faced a .391 strength of schedule.
Why did the Patriots face such an easy slate? It starts with their record a year ago. By finishing fourth in the AFC East, New England was given a fourth-place schedule, which meant games against other last-place teams: The Tennessee Titans, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the New York Giants.
New England, along with the rest of the AFC East, faced the NFC South on the league’s rotating divisional cycle. That meant games against the Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons, the New Orleans Saints, and the Carolina Panthers, who won the division with an 8-9 record.
Add that up and you have just three games — against two teams — that finished with a winning record: The Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers
New England went 1-2 in those games.
But there is even some more context to consider. Let’s look at their entire regular season schedule, adding in some context along the way:
- Week 1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (20-13 loss): Las Vegas fired head coach Pete Carroll after the season
- Week 2 vs. Miami Dolphins (33-27 win): Miami fired head coach Mike McDaniel after the season
- Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (21-14 loss): Mike Tomlin stepped down after the season
- Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers (42-13 win): NFC South division winner at 8-9
- Week 5 vs. Buffalo Bills (23-20 win): Buffalo fired head coach Sean McDermott after the season
- Week 6 vs. New Orleans Saints (25-19 win): NFC South team
- Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans (31-13 win): Tennessee fired Brian Callahan days before this game
- Week 8 vs. Cleveland Browns (32-13 win): Cleveland fired Kevin Stefanski after the season
- Week 9 vs. Atlanta Falcons (24-23 win): NFC South team that fired Raheem Morris after the season
- Week 10 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28-23 win): NFC South team
- Week 11 vs. New York Jets (27-14 win): A Jets team that did not intercept a pass this season
- Week 12 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (26-20 win): A Bengals team without Joe Burrow
- Week 13 vs. New York Giants (33-15 win): New York fired Brian Daboll days before this game
- Week 14: Bye week
- Week 15 vs. Buffalo Bills (35-31 loss): Buffalo fired head coach Sean McDermott after the season
- Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens (28-24 win): Baltimore fired head coach John Harbaugh after the season
- Week 17 vs. New York Jets (42-10 win): Yep, same Jets team without an interception this year
- Week 18 vs. Miami Dolphins (38-10 win): Miami fired head coach Mike McDaniel after the season
For those keeping track, 11 of New England’s games came against teams that are not bringing their head coach back next season. According to research from CBS Sports, that is tied for the most by any team in league history … with the 1925 Frankford Yellow Jackets.
What about New England’s playoff schedule?
Despite finishing 14-3, New England missed out on the No. 1 seed in the AFC thanks to a tiebreaker with the Denver Broncos. Specifically, the Patriots’ Week 1 loss to the Raiders cost New England the “common opponent” tiebreaker, giving the Broncos home-field advantage.
New England faced the Los Angeles Chargers, the Houston Texans, and ultimately the Broncos in the playoffs. On the positive side of the ledger the Patriots went up against three of the top-ten scoring defenses in the playoffs: Houston clocked in at No. 2, Denver at No. 3, and the Chargers at No. 9.
With a win in the Super Bowl, they would become just the second team in NFL history to beat the top-three scoring defenses in the league during a single postseason, as the Seattle Seahawks are the top scoring defense in the league.
However, even those three games need some context. The Chargers were without starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.
The Texans were missing leading receiver Nico Collins, and lost tight end Dalton Schultz early in that game, a favorite target of quarterback C.J. Stroud. Speaking of Stroud, he was rather … generous in that game as he threw four interceptions and posted a NFL Passer Rating of just 28.
Then came the AFC Championship Game against the Broncos, in Denver. While that stadium has been a “house of horrors” for the Patriots in the past, starting quarterback Bo Nix was lost for the season in the closing moments of Denver’s Divisional Round game against the Buffalo Bills. That meant Jarrett Stidham — drafted by the Patriots in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft — got the start.
And Stidham’s costly turnover in the first half, coupled with miserable weather conditions in the second, paved the way for New England’s 10-7 win.
Again, the Patriots faced three tough defenses in the playoffs and found a way to win each game, but even their playoff run needs a little bit of context.
Will it matter in Super Bowl LX?
There is an old adage in NFL circles that says you never apologize for winning a game. A team can only play the opponents listed on their schedule, and can only control how they perform in those games.
By that metric, the Patriots have 17 wins and are in the Super Bowl, with a chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
New England head coach Mike Vrabel has talked about the schedule narrative throughout the season, focusing on who the Patriots have prepared to play each week, and the challenges those teams put in front of them.
“I can only coach one team at a time. I don’t make the schedule. Every team beats every (team),” the Patriots coach said following beating Atlanta. “That’s just mind-boggling to me, in the National Football League, that there be strength of schedule. You got a salary cap. Everybody spends the same amount of money. So you guys know in this league, that that doesn’t really mean anything.
“My message has been the same every week: That we have to put everything that we have into each week, and that everybody has to prepare as a starter. I love our practices and the way that we compete, and then you go and play the game.”
Pressed on Atlanta in particular, Vrabel pointed to their roster.
“That’s a talented football team,” Vrabel said of the Falcons. “How many first-round picks? I don’t know, 10 or 12 on the roster? Good skill players. So I’m never going to apologize for our guys winning.”
After New England’s Wild Card win over the Chargers, Vrabel was again asked the schedule question, and whether a playoff win puts that debate to rest.
“It means we get to keep playing,” Vrabel said. “That’s what that means. It means we’re not on vacation.”
But what does New England’s schedule truly mean once Super Bowl LX kicks off?
As we pointed out earlier in this piece, the Patriots have faced the easiest schedule since the 1999 St. Louis Rams.
That team finished 13-3 and beat the Tennessee Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV.
Just something else to keep in mind.
