NFL offenses are going through a crisis. Gasp! Points are down! Yards per passing attempt are down! Won’t someone think of the offenses!
A myriad of solutions have been given to help the poor, poor offenses figure out how to beat Cover 2. The worst opinion of the bunch came from NFL Draft pundit and now world-renown defense hater Mel Kiper Jr:
What happened to the game I love?
Furthermore, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah offered an idea that also seems unpleasant both to the eyes and to the NFL:
If we’re throwing out our rule recommendations– let’s go to the college hash marks. More space, more fun. I’ll hang up and listen…
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) September 19, 2024
Quite simply, I think NFL offenses should just get good. That would fix so many problems with offenses not being able to score points. Not being able to break a two-high defense? Skill issue, in my opinion.
However, I think the problems offenses face when opposed with a two-high shell are a result of both defensive adaptation and evolution, and offenses still trying to figure out their adjustments.
How We Got Here
Playing quarterback in the NFL is really hard. Yes, I know, shocker, right? However, just saying two-high safeties alone are shutting down passing attacks is doing a disservice to the creativity and adaptations defenses have put in. Yes, two-high shells are becoming the norm defensively, but it’s about how they’re getting to these coverages. Defenses aren’t static anymore, what you see pre-snap is going to be different after the ball is snapped.
This season, per Pro Football Focus, NFL defenses are rotating post-snap 29% of the time, up from the 25% in 2023, and WAY up from the 22.7% in 2021. Of course, the 2024 numbers are weird because two games have been played, but even if you just watch when you turn on the TV, you can see how much defenses are throwing at their counterparts. Just watch Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith any given Sunday. He’s going to end up running the most miles in the league, because he’s flying from the line of scrimmage back to the deep half of the field in Cover-2.
Not only do these split safeties confuse QBs on where anyone will be at post-snap, it gives the defense advantages when it comes to offenses using motion. When the Shanahan and McVay offenses started to tear up the NFL in 2017, they were facing teams that played a lot of static Cover 3, due to the success of the Legion of Boom in Seattle. All they did was use motion to get the defense either out of the box to run outside zone, or play action and hit over routes all game. Split safeties don’t have to change or declare what they’re doing with the use of motion by the offense, because they remain balanced on either side. The offense doesn’t get a tell at all, keeping the chess match we call football in their favor.
However, changing the picture doesn’t just stop with defensive coverages: it also applies to pressure, too. As NFL offenses began to use positionless players, dual threats like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Alvin Kamara, defenses adapted their personnel. Gone are the days of the 260-pound linebacker who would thump in the run game and occasionally blitz (I miss you, Dont’a Hightower) — those guys are now edge defenders who force outside zone runs back inside and can drop into coverage as well. Linebackers are smaller in order to run faster and drop into deeper zones against these over routes. 220-pound safeties? Congratulations, you’re now a WILL linebacker!
This allows for defenses to be creative with their blitz packages and pressures. You see that nickel corner over to your right? Yeah he might be a blitzer, just like that linebacker who is off the ball. The defensive tackle lined up over your center? Well, that guy might also not be blitzing at all. Good luck with that!
As defenses get lighter, they can be more multiple against these spread offenses, and bring pressures from different areas. The use of picks and stunts up front really stress the communication between the offensive line, and overload the QB with tons of information post-snap.
Which brings me to my next point about how we’ve gotten to where we are: offensive line development is really, REALLY bad right now. Let me start off by saying this: part of why it’s really bad right now is just simply the data of the human population. There aren’t many dudes as big as offensive linemen with the athleticism to be an offensive lineman. You can convert a running back to receiver, or a receiver to tight end, or a linebacker to defensive line. You can’t really convert many of those guys to offensive line. Not only that, but you need FIVE of those dudes who can play quality reps in an NFL game together. It just simply isn’t feasible to just go and find an offensive lineman, because all the big people that can play on the line, are already signed to play on the line for another team.
Now, when these guys get to their teams, development for the NFL and what NFL defenses are going to throw at them has gotten really bad. I can’t really blame college coaches, however. At the college level, their job is to win games, not send people to the NFL. The college game is much different from the NFL, between the wide hashes and the ineligible man downfield call being less strict at the lower level, more teams run RPOs and are less prepared for the simulated pressures and stunts that an NFL defensive coordinator is going to throw at them. Teams have much, much less time to work on these stunts and pressures because of NFL rules on practicing and contact in offseason work. Contact work is prohibited in the offseason by the NFLPA. While linemen can work on passing off stunts without contact, it’s much different when it’s a shoot, brother.
So, in short: defenses are more multiple and can throw blitzes from any and everywhere, leaving QBs with an offensive line that hasn’t had much time or development to work on stunts. Good luck!
How we can fix it
No, the answer isn’t banning two-high defenses. The answer is simple:
I don’t just say that to mean running for the sake of running. NFL teams are so much more creative now with their gap scheme and getting funky with how they run it, in order to attack the defense which has gotten lighter and lighter. Those former safeties that are playing WILL linebacker now? Yeah they gotta take on a 320+ pound guard pulling through the B-gap, have fun with that. In 2022, I wrote about how teams are using the run game to beat opponents who stick in two-high shells, and we’re starting to see that in 2024. Saying “run the damn ball” is becoming a legitimate way to get explosive plays out of the offense as screens and checkdowns become popular.
The funniest thing about this conversation is that you can still throw downfield and be explosive against two-high shells! Concepts like Mills and Double Post can be used against these defenses. The problem is that these are long developing plays that require proper protection, and that’s where offensive line play comes in. There has to be better development, and more time being put into developing quality offensive linemen at the NFL level. More teams have to spend more offseason hours working with their linemen, maybe bringing back a little bit of contact during the offseason to get their guys working on these stunts at a proper level to combat NFL defenses.
Running the damn ball is back, and it’s glorious. Banning Cover-2 and Quarters coverage won’t solve anything. Widening the hashes won’t help, it actually might hurt. Defenses have made their adjustment in this match, and now offenses have to as well.
