When the NFL moved back the extra point from the 2-yard line to the 15 in 2015, the reasoning was basically that the kicks were too boring. NFL kickers made 99.3% of their extra points in 2014, the season before the rule change, and the league thought that pushing it back would both make the kicks more difficult and incentivize teams into going for two.
It worked, for the most part. Kickers as a whole did not cross the 95% mark on extra points from the 15 until last season, when the league rate was 95.9%. NFL teams, driven by the rule change and the rise of analytics, started going for two more often. From the 2021-23 seasons, teams went for two 56% of the time when down by 5 points, compared to a measly 25% of the time from 2010-13.
But kicks are starting to get boring again.
After the league hit only 93% of their extra points in 2020, the lowest rate since 1979, the accuracy rate has gone up every season. Not a single kicker missed an extra point in Week 1 this season. Only four – Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker, Saints kicker Blake Grupe, Bengals kicker Evan McPherson, and Giants punter Jamie Gillan – missed extra points in Week 2. (Gillan was filling in for injured kicker Graham Gano. The Giants elected to go for two on their other two touchdowns of the game after Gillan missed.)
Extra points aren’t the only place where kickers are improving, however. Attempts from 50 yards or further are up nearly double from a season ago through two weeks. Teams attempted 230 field goals from at least 50 yards out last season, roughly 0.4 a game. They made 158 of those, or 68.7%. Through two weeks, the NFL is 35-of-39 on those kicks, a rate of 89.7% on 0.6 attempts per game. Kickers are making a 50-yarder once every two games in 2024, up from once every three games last season and once every five in 2014.
The increase in attempts is fairly explainable: the NFL changed the kickoff rules this offseason, bringing the touchback forward to the 30-yard line and establishing a landing zone between the 20-yard line and the goal line to try to encourage more returns. With the kicker still lined up at the 35, however, many teams have elected to simply boot the ball into the end zone and let the opponent take the ball at the 30. With the average NFL kicker able to hit from a long of 55.8 yards in 2023, offenses now only need to advance the ball about 20 yards in order to get into field goal range.
In other words – get two first downs, and you’re virtually guaranteed three points.
Compare that with 2014, the year before the extra point was moved back. A touchback on the kickoff put your offense on the 20-yard line. NFL kickers had an average season-long field goal of 53.3 yards, only two yards shorter than last year’s average, but hit kicks from 50+ at only a 61% clip. Teams needed an additional fifteen yards to get into range a decade ago.
This revolution is coming on many fronts. Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey is perhaps the most notable – as a first-year player in 2023, Aubrey was a first-team All-Pro whose accuracy from range was unlike anything the league has ever seen. Aubrey has still never missed a kick from 50+, tacking on a 52-yarder on Sunday against the Saints to increase his tally to 13-for-13 in his 19-game career. Aubrey also tied the NFL record with a 66-yarder in Week 1 that was nullified by a delay of game after also drilling a 66-yarder in the preseason. The Cowboys briefly considered letting Aubrey try an audacious 71-yarder after a delay of game last week, but decided against it despite his range.
Aubrey isn’t the only one to lead this charge. Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins has not missed from 50+ in 10 attempts since being traded to Cleveland prior to the 2023 season. Cardinals kicker Matt Prater, at 39 years old in his 17th NFL season, hit a league-leading 62-yarder in 2023 and was 9-of-12 from distance last season. He hit a casual-looking 57-yarder on Sunday against the Rams.
Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn is a great example of how this phenomenon seems to transcend a kicker’s pre-existing abilities from distance. From 2017-21, Fairbairn was 18-of-28 from 50+, a rate of 64.3%. Since 2022, Fairbairn has missed from distance once, hitting 17-of-18 tries. That included three field goals on Sunday Night Football from 56, 59, and 53 yards away.
In short, kickers are getting better than they ever have been. It coincides with an NFL rule change that has made it easier than ever to get into field goal range. It also coincides with the widespread usage of two-high defenses, which has deflated passing outputs league-wide through two weeks and has forced more and more field goal opportunities. Kicking is more important than ever.
It’s also made an NFL kicker’s leash, already one of the shortest in professional sports, even shorter. Washington released Cade York after he missed field goals from 47 and 56 yards in their season opener after the Commanders traded for York before the season. His replacement, journeyman Austin Seibert, went 7-for-7 on his kicks in Week 2 and led Washington to a 21-18 win over the Giants.
Bills fans have been eyeing Tyler Bass’ job security after a somewhat shaky (by modern standards) training camp and preseason after making 82.8% of his field goals last season, including 4-of-6 from distance. That hit rate overall is nearly identical to that of Graham Gano and Nick Folk in 2014, who were a combined 4-of-9 from 50+ that season and are both still NFL kickers.
The one kicker whose job this hasn’t seemed to affect, however, is Justin Tucker, widely considered the best in the league for the past half-decade. Tucker is 2-of-8 on his latest attempts from more than 50 yards out, a stretch matched only by his seasons in 2014 and 2015, when he was a combined 8-of-19 from deep. But discussions about Tucker’s dethronement are already starting, especially with Aubrey and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker proving reliable from anywhere on the field on a more consistent basis.
This has bled into college evaluations of kickers as well. Wake Forest kicker Nick Sciba is the NCAA’s all-time accuracy leader, hitting 89.9% of his field goals for the Demon Deacons from 2018-21 with a career long of 49 yards. In 2014, Sciba still wouldn’t have had a strong leg, but at least one NFL team may very well have traded accuracy for the shorter distance options. In 2022, Sciba’s accuracy was useless without a launcher attached to his right foot. He played in one NFL game for the Steelers in 2022, making kicks of 28 and 38 yards, and has not been seen in the NFL since.
On the opposite end of this is former Missouri kicker Harrison Mevis, who signed with the Panthers after this year’s NFL Draft following a career that featured a 13-of-18 rate from 50+, including a legendary 61-yarder against No. 15 Kansas State that cemented his likeness into the college football consciousness. Mevis was an 83.5% kicker in college, a fairly good rate. It seemed like he had an NFL future.
In Panthers training camp, Mevis went 22-of-28, including two misses at an August 11 practice just hours before he was waived in favor of incumbent kicker Eddy Pineiro. Pineiro is 10-of-12 from 50+ in his career and hit all but two of his 25 kicks in training camp. Mevis has not gotten an NFL opportunity since, even with two teams changing their kicker since the preseason (Green Bay and Washington) and the Giants looking for a short-term replacement for Cano.
To be an NFL kicker in 2024, you have to have both distance and pinpoint accuracy. Season longs from the low 50s and accuracy numbers in the mid-80s hardly cut it anymore. Every team needs a Brandon Aubrey, Ka’imi Fairbairn, or Evan McPherson – signed to a three-year extension this offseason. More and more of those kickers are available. Rams rookie Joshua Karty has a career long of 61 and hit 85% of his field goals at Stanford. Jaguars rookie Cam Little hit a 56-yarder last season for Arkansas and never missed an extra point en route to becoming the most accurate kicker in Razorbacks history.
Until the NFL gets bored and changes the rules to make kicking harder again, this is the league’s new normal.
