Picture this: it’s 2013, the American Football Conference is living its best life. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots occupy the first and second seeds in the AFC, ripping teams to shreds with explosive offenses and stout defensive corps. Both seem poised to fight it out for the AFC title in January, and great vibes all around. High fives for everyone, and yes, there will be drinks with the little umbrellas in them at the Christmas Party. It’s beach themed.
Until we get down to brass tacks, you might think 2025 is just 2013 reincarnated, like some messed-up spin-off of Harry Potter: The Prisoner of Azkaban, in which Hermione uses the Time Turner exclusively to influence the results of NFL games; a wizarding world Pete Rose, if you will. But unfortunately for our imagination, there are a few dastardly details that the devil has decided to dwell in.
First and foremost, like… significantly foremost, is that since 2013, the NFL reduced the number of first round byes to one, meaning that 12 years ago both the Patriots and the Broncos could secure byes, meaning that each’s odds of reaching the AFC championship against each other was super-duper high. Today, there is one bye for the one seed, which inherently bakes in parity to the playoffs, ensuring that even a 14-win two seed (which the Patriots or Broncos could easily become) might lose to a freak seven seed… say, oh I don’t know, the Houston Texans and their Defensive Line of Mass Destruction?
Another major difference from 2013 is that quarterback quality is all over the place. I wouldn’t say it’s worse across the board, but New England and Denver are operating with a pair of second-years, one of whom seems like the next big thing (Drake Maye) and another who seems like he could conceivably be one of the upcoming things (Bo Nix). But this is not Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, at least not yet.*
*and probably not ever. Let’s not get so far ahead of our skiis that we do a somersault on the bunny hill
But 2013’s triumphant reincarnation is a sympton of a larger situationship breweing between the NFL and this amorphous thing I called “parity” earlier. Unlike most situationships, explaining it isn’t complicated. Here, I’ll do it in one sentance:
Who do you think is going to win the Super Bowl?
Every year, there are usually a number of defensible answers to this question: whatever cadre of 13-win teams look good, generally the Kansas City Chiefs are a safe bet… the Ravens tend to choke but have always been fine to choose. Recently the Detroit Lions have been the best overall roster in the league, and then we got reigning MVP Josh Allen and his superpowers? Whatever breakout team surprised everyone, so the Indianapolis Colts, yeah? Defending champs are always a nice fall back, so the Philadelphia Eagles if all else fails. We should be set here right?
Wrong. We are so not all set. We are the opposite of all set. Our 13-win teams will be the young and hard to trust Patriots and Broncos. The Chiefs are not going to make the playoffs, and the Ravens might but absolutely shouldn’t. The Lions and Bills probably will but are on the outside looking in for their own divisions, leading to a disgusting reality known as road playoff games. It is so beyond over for the Colts, and the Eagles suck, and so we’re left with what? The Jaguars? The Texans? The AFC-freaking-South?!
The real answer is the Los Angeles Rams, who have probably been the best top to bottom, back to front team this year regardless of record. They have a legitimately incredible offensive with a quarterback you capital T Trust and wide receivers you are capital T Terrified of. There are other vogue options like the Seahawks with a terrifying defense, or you could like the Packers and Bears with their emerging quarterbacks and decent rosters of surrounding talent. You could always pick the Patriots or Broncos too. That’s allowed.
Great, so I’ve walked you through all the picks I would be okay with for the Super Bowl this year and we’re down to… 9 teams (Patriots, Broncos, Packers, Bears, Bills, Lions, Seahawks, Texans, Rams). That is, for the mathematically minded, 64 percent of all available playoff teams. That, according to official definitions, is “parity.”
But, sneakily, it’s not. It’s thinly veiled chaos disguised as competitive progress. By eliminating the second bye and adding another playoff team, the NFL has basically ensured that more teams can lose in the postseason, not necessarily that different teams will win it all. In the five Super Bowls since the changes, the Chiefs have played in four of them, the Eagles two, and the 49ers, Rams, and Buccaneers bringing up the remaining three spots.
That’s not a lot of representation, given the 10 spots in five years have been filled by only five total teams. But the NFL, and other leagues like NBA that introduce stuff like the Play-In tournament, have data that tells them parity is good for TV revenue; it stimulates small markets, keeps them engaged and keeps the product fresh. So they go about trying to create parity, with financial and competitive rule changes
What we have in 2025, though, is chaos, in which nobody has a feel for the season in Week 15 and analysts must throw their hands up in the air and say “well, somebody will win. That I know for sure.” It’s not bad — it’s actually pretty darn exciting, but it isn’t “parity” in any sense of the word. True parity is understandable, the teams that can win are numerous enough to rotate around like a Rotesserie Chicken, slowly shuffling in and out as windows open and close. That’s the kind of league I want to watch.
In truth, I think six-team brackets and the double bye kept the league feeling fair, though not necessarily balanced. The Patriots were the major beneficiaries of that system, given that they didn’t need to claw and bite for a one seed every year, would win their customary single game each year and wind up with a chance to go to the Super Bowl almost every year. It kept the league stable and understandable, and I wonder if it’s what we need back right now. Ideally, you’d have true parity, but in place we have uncontrolled craziness breaking loose.
The secret, though, is that you can’t create parity. Parity has to find you, through quarterback and coach consistency and well-run front offices. I don’t think the NFL will be able to legislate a balanced league, and the reason for this chaos may be a combination of their rule changes and that quarterback-coach ecosystem is in a state of major transition.
I believe we may land on parity soon, if the league develops a new workable balance of infrastructures you can trust. But for now, we’re left with chaos, the type that the former playoff structure effectively controlled. These days, though, if you ask me who is going to win the Super Bowl… I got no less than 10 ideas for you.
