The race to the playoffs is underway and the picture is starting to take shape — well, it’s starting to take shape in the AFC. The seven current teams inside the bubble in the conference all have a 60% chance of making the postseason or better, while everyone outside the bubble’s chances plummet. The only exception is the Steelers, who are currently in — but their projection based on their remaining games is ugly, with the Ravens being poised to catch them.
Meanwhile in the NFC, things are brutal. Currently nine of the 16 teams in the conference are above .500, with the bubble line currently having a 6-4 Lions team out of the playoffs. There is going to be a mammoth battle for the wild card spots, and it’s time to try and project out who we think will make the cut.
We won’t be talking about teams who are very far on the outside looking in. Technically nobody is eliminated at this time, but do we really need to discuss the scenario needed for the Giants or Cardinals to make the playoffs? That’s a rhetorical question, because no we do not.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
Current playoff odds: >99%
Remaining games: Cowboys, Bears, Chargers, Raiders, Commanders, Bills, Commanders
It would take a legendary collapse for the Eagles to miss out with this record and the remaining schedule. Philadelphia will be favored heavily in all seven games, with the only potential loss coming against the Bills. Even if we chalk that up as an L, they still look like the class of the conference once more.
Projected finish: 14-3, winning the NFC East, and the No. 1 seed in the NFC
Current playoffs odds: 99%
Remaining games: Buccaneers, Panthers, Cardinals, Lions, Seahawks, Falcons, Cardinals
The Rams have found themselves in an incredible spot thanks to Matthew Stafford and phenomenal coaching. Their Week 11 win over the Seahawks went a long way to establishing their resume atop the NFC West, and it now means it would take another legendary collapse to miss the playoffs. In terms of projecting their final record I think we can potentially have the Rams drop one to the hungry Lions, and split their series with the Seahawks who adjust.
Projected finish: 13-4, winning the NFC West, and the No. 3 seed in the NFC
Current playoff odds: 90%
Remaining games: Titans, Vikings, Falcons, Colts, Rams, Panthers, 49ers
Seattle has such high odds because of its remaining schedule. Really the only two games you see here and circle as losses are to the Colts and Rams, which would lock up their playoff spot fairly easily. Because of their 7-3 record the Seahawks could drop one, or even two more and find a way in.
Projected finish: 12-5, the No. 5 seed in the NFC, and first wild card spot
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
Current playoff odds: 85%
Remaining games: Rams, Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Panthers
There is a tight race developing with the Panthers in the NFC South, but Tampa Bay has a dramatic edge in their remaining schedule. Realistically losses to the Rams and splitting the series with Carolina seem to be the only likely outcomes — and that would firmly put them in the playoffs.
Projected finish: 11-6, winning the NFC South, and the No. 4 seed in the NFC
San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Current playoff odds: 85%
Remaining games: Panthers, Browns, Titans, Colts, Bears, Seahawks
It’s a miracle that the Niners are this far in the hunt with the injuries they been dealt this season. Truthfully, it’s been a coaching masterclass from Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to not just keep the skip afloat, but have it thriving. They hit a great part of their season with a very easy schedule to make it past. In this scenario we have their only losses coming to the Colts, and then the Seahawks to close out the season.
Projected finish: 11-6, the No. 6 seed in the NFC, and the 2nd wild card spot
Current playoff odds: 75%
Remaining games: Giants, Packers, Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Vikings, Bears
Despite being third in the NFC North right now, the Lions have the best chance to win the NFC North through analytics down the stretch. They have a relatively soft schedule compared to their first 10 games, and it’s entirely likely they run the table — which is exactly what we have them doing to close out the regular season.
Projected finish: 13-4, winning the NFC North, and the No. 2 seed in the NFC
Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
Current playoffs odds: 70%
Remaining games: Vikings, Lions, Bears, Broncos, Bears, Ravens, Vikings
What the Packers wouldn’t give to have back that tie with the Cowboys, and their loss to Carolina. Thankfully the schedule breaks favorably for them, but Green Bay has looked really shaky in recent weeks. Two games against the Vikings helps their resume a lot. Here we project them to drop games to the Lions, Broncos and Ravens — splitting the series with Chicago. Early season wounds haunt them, and the Packers narrowly miss out.
Projected finish: 9-7-1, the No. 8 in the NFC, and first team to miss the playoffs
Current playoff odds: 59%
Remaining games: Steelers, Eagles, Packers, Browns, Packers, 49ers, Lions
It’s been a brilliant run for the Bears, but if we get down to brass tacks it’s been one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Chicago has only played one team with a .500 record or above, and it gets much more difficult in the back stretch of the season. Looking at this slate we can see Chicago getting wins over the Steelers, Browns and splitting the series with the Packers — and that’s enough to squeak in.
Projected finish: 10-7, the No. 7 seed in the NFC, and final wild card spot
Current playoff odds: 21%
Remaining games: 49ers, Rams, Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Buccaneers
The Panthers have played better football that most people expected, but they made too many unforced errors to nab a playoff spot. Their stunning wins over the Packers and Cowboys were erased by losses to Arizona early in the season, and the Saints in Week 10. Realistically we could see this team splitting their series with Tampa Bay, and evening the score with New Orleans — but that’s about the ceiling for this team
Projected finish: 8-9, No. 9 in the NFC, and missing the playoffs
