Let’s set the scene: there’s 1:48 left in the fourth quarter. The Jacksonville Jaguars are down three to the moribund offense of the Cleveland Browns, but there’s still time to wash away all of that, with the ball on their own two-yard line. Jaguars franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes the snap, but every route is 30 yards downfield and takes time to develop, time the offense doesn’t have. He gets sacked for a safety, practically putting the game out of reach.
The Jaguars are 0-2 and coming off an 18-13 loss to a Browns team that had 37 dropped on them the week before. The Doug Pederson era got off to a great start, but it’s time to ask some serious questions, especially about the offense. To be quite honest, I do not care who’s calling plays. In 2022, Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor split time calling plays, then in 2023 Taylor took over full time. Pederson has been very…quiet about who’s calling plays this year, but it doesn’t matter. Press Taylor and Doug Pederson both come from the same coaching tree with the same coaching philosophies, so I’m just going to group both of them together here.
The Jaguars have no offensive vision. At all. Every offense worth their salt has an identity, or a philosophy that they want to base their offense in. The Shanahan/McVay tree all uses outside zone as their bread and butter, their day one install that every concept is based off of. Dress it up any way you want, but the base of the offense remains the same. Andy Reid and the Chiefs have morphed their offensive identity to being more of an underneath passing team with a lot of YAC, and it gives their offense an identity. What is the Jaguars’ offensive identity? What is the foundation of their offensive house? You can dress up the house with the nicest windows and fancy lighting, but if the foundation is shaky then the house crumbles under any adversity.
The Jaguars have nice players on this team, but with no offensive vision everything else suffers. What does Jacksonville want to do well on offense? Last week, the Jaguars’ vision was to attack vertically off play action under center, something that I believed they would try to be good at after last year. However, against the Browns? Four play action attempts under center, and one of them ended in a successful play. The Jaguars had a -0.03 EPA per play yesterday on offense, and it could’ve been worse! This offense is turtling in on itself, and the blame starts up top. It’s like the Jaguars offensive braintrust doesn’t understand what their players do well. Rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr has been one of the most impressive downfield receiving targets in the league early, but only gets two downfield targets a game? The Jaguars were down TE Evan Engram in Week 2, so naturally that meant to feed backup tight end Brenton Strange all game. The offense has no rhyme or reason, and it has a trickle down effect on the rest of the offense.
Let’s start with the quarterback. Lawrence is a very good QB, but the lack of a clear-cut plan on offense is sinking the investment the Jaguars made in him. On Sunday I saw him miss throws he normally makes, bail on a pocket that was fairly clean, and just overall look more dejected and frustrated than I’ve ever seen him. After the game, the quotes coming from the Jaguars displayed a team on the verge of a meltdown.
What’s even sadder is that while the offense plays disgusting football, the defense has been really good! You should win games that you only give up 18 points in. The Cowboys gave up 17 to the Browns, but also scored 33 points! They’ve been 11th in Success Rate allowed through two games, and given this offense every opportunity to succeed. It shouldn’t be on a defense in a completely new scheme to carry an offense that has three years under its’ belt, but that’s where we’re at.
The problem for the Jaguars is that the schedule doesn’t get any easier. Their next four games are against the Buffalo Bills, the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears. This team needs to figure it out offensively, but they won’t get that time against four quality defenses. However, they had a whole offseason to figure it out, but the same Jaguars team still showed up, and that’s on the head coach.
The clock on Doug Pederson has run out. It’s time to put together an offense worthy of anything, or he won’t have a job at the end of the season.
