The Jacksonville Jaguars have reached 10 wins for the first time since 2017, and the vibes are off the charts in Duval. Everything is working for Liam Coen’s team right now, as Trevor Lawrence finds him form, the defense is obliterating people, and there’s confidence brimming all over the organization.
Yes, the Jaguars are absolutely, 100% for real. Alternatively they might be one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL, destined to get obliterated in the playoffs.
Welcome to the NFL in 2025, where nothing is certain — but even inside of that it’s completely unclear exactly what the Jaguars are. They’re the No. 3 seed in the AFC right now, leading the AFC South, and destined to host a playoff game for the 6th time in franchise history. We should be thinking of Jacksonville as one of the elite teams in football right now, but there’s plenty of reason for doubt.
No. 1: The Jags are 6-1 in their last seven games, but …
Entering their bye week the Jaguars were a fairly pedestrian 4-3, which was good enough to for second in the division at the time, but nothing to really write home about. With losses to the Bengals (lol), Seahawks, and Rams there was a fairly definite pattern of beating mediocre teams are losing to good ones.
The bye solidified a lot for Jacksonville. The team returned after the break rejuvenated, averaging over 30 points-per-game, and doing enough on defense to walk away with wins. The devil is in the details though. While its true that Jacksonville has been impressive offensively, their defense has been … fine. There’s nothing too remarkable to write home about, and the list of quarterbacks the Jaguars have faced since their bye has been pathetic.
- Geno Smith
- Davis Mills
- Justin Herbert
- Jacoby Brissett
- Cam Ward
- Riley Leonard
- Brady Cook
Outside of Herbert and Brissett this is one of the worst groups of quarterbacks anyone could possibly dream up. Truly remarkable levels of mediocrity, but still somehow averaged 19.5 points per game against Jacksonville. Davis Mills even managed to beat them, and Davis Mills shouldn’t beat anything in 2025.
No. 2: Trevor Lawrence has put it all together, but …
There’s no question that Lawrence has turned somewhat of a corner, which culminated on Sunday with his six touchdown performance against the Jets. The Liam Coen offense is starting to click for him, and the trade deadline acquisition of Jakobi Meyers has been one of the best additions in the NFL this season. It’s added more verticality to a Jaguars offense in dire need of dee threats, and Lawrence has been executing.
The problem is that Lawrence was pretty damn mediocre before the Jets game. It was the equivalent of playing 60 minutes of garbage time football that allowed for some incredible stat padding.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Jets: 330 pass yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
Trevor Lawrence’s average in every other game this season: 221 yards, 1.4 TD, 0.84 INT
Without that Jets game Lawrence is functionally equivalent to guys like Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Flacco, and Marcus Mariota. It really hasn’t been a good season, no matter how impressive that win over the Jets might make it look now.
If you want to put a ton of stock in a beatdown over a team in tank mode, more power to you — but there’s very little to indicate that a team can trust him in the playoffs to go out and get a win.
No. 3: The defense has looked good, but …
Jacksonville is incredible in one defensive area, which is stopping the run. The Jags rank 1st in the NFL in both yards allowed, and rushing attempts allowed. They are also a Top 10 team when it comes to yards allowed per attempt. Essentially teams know they can’t run on Jacksonville, so they have to abandon the run and look to pick up yards elsewhere.
The issue is that teams are thriving in other areas against this defense. Jacksonville is 20th in passing yards allowed, 19th in passing touchdowns allowed, and opponents are able to score on 32.6% of drives. Basically this team lives or dies by turnover when it comes to the defense. There have been ZERO games this season where the Jaguars have won by more than three points while losing the turnover battle. That’s a little worrisome when you factor in the subpar quarterbacks they’ve played this season.
It fundamentally means that the Jaguars haven’t found themselves in a position where they’ve faced a top-tier QB and managed to win when they havent made massive mistakes. It could be a sign that the defense really is that damn good, or an indication that they’ve been very lucky.
What do we make of this team if we’re being really honest?
This is a bizarre NFL season where nobody is very convincing, especially in the AFC. While the NFC has some modicum of reliability with the Rams and Seahawks, the AFC standings are largely a factor of other teams falling by the wayside — like the Chiefs, and the entire AFC North.
What this has led to is a scenario where a lot of building teams around the NFL have been able to vastly outpace their schedule for contention. It’s tough to envision teams like New England, Chicago, or Jacksonville turning the corner to contention this quickly with new coaches in any other season but 2025. However, the playoffs are the limiting factor. When a team hits the postseason we see what they’re actually made of. There won’t be Riley Leonards or Brady Cooks in the playoffs to prey on in the turnover game, and it’ll instead be on Trevor Lawrence to beat the Broncos defense, or the defense to stop someone like Josh Allen.
It leaves us in a complicated situation where the Jags are neither frauds, or are they for real. Instead they’ve simply been able to walk through a weird season without a lot of resistance. That’s an achievement in and of itself for a team with a history of shooting itself in the foot, and the growth is there for the future — but in terms of this season, well, its going to have to continue to be a factor of luck for how long this run goes.
Luck always runs out, no matter how good you might think you are. Just enjoy the ride while it lasts.
