The WNBA playoffs begin in less than a month, and the race toward the elusive WNBA title is heating up. Here’s who is most likely to take home the crown.
The Minnesota Lynx have been far and away the WNBA’s best team this season. After falling to the New York Liberty in five games in last year’s WNBA Finals, Minnesota has bounced back resoundingly and been the league’s most consistent team this year. They’re 18-1 at home, and have a 6-game lead in the WNBA standings. Napheesa Collier is the MVP front-runner, averaging 23.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks this season.
But, the success has been a team effort. Minnesota was awarded two All-Star selections in addition to Collier: point guard Courtney Williams and sharpshooter Kayla McBride. Williams is averaging 13.8 points and 6.2 assists, while McBride is averaging 14.9 points and 3.5 assists. Both have shot the three-ball extremely well, with Williams hitting 38.3% of three-point attempts and McBride hitting 40.8% of a team-high 6.6 attempts.
There’s also center Alanna Smith, who is putting together a Defensive Player of the Year campaign while averaging 10 points per game, and recent acquisition DiJonai Carrington, who has upped her game tremendously since arriving in Minnesota.
The Lynx appear to have all the pieces to contend for a championship and rectify last season’s heartbreaking finish, and their depth has been evident throughout the season. Off the bench, forward Jessica Shepard filled in beautifully for an injured Collier, tallying a 22-point, 11-rebound, 10-assist stat line on Friday. And backup point guard Natisha Hiedeman has been a consistent spark plug, averaging 8 points and 2.6 assists.
The Lynx had the league’s best defense all season. Offensively, they average more points (86.7) than any team in the WNBA, and have the league’s best field goal percentage and three-point percentage.
2. New York Liberty (22-15)
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Liberty, who got off to a hot start but have dropped 5 of their last 10 games and now trail the Lynx by 8 games in the standings. The Liberty now have the league’s fifth-best record, meaning they wouldn’t have home-court advantage at any point in the postseason if the playoffs started today.
New York’s primary issue has been health; last year’s Finals MVP, Jonquel Jones, has missed 14 games this season, primarily with an ankle sprain. Breanna Stewart remains out with a knee injury after already missing 13 games this year.
But, at full strength, the Liberty are as formidable as any team. Sabrina Ionescu is having one of the best seasons of her career, averaging 19.3 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.8 rebounds, while
The starting lineup of Ionescu, Stewart, Jones, Leonie Fiebich, and offseason acquisition Natasha Cloud is as formidable as any, and now, the Liberty have European star Emma Meesseman as a depth piece, as well. The question is whether they can roll out a full roster come playing time — and in the meantime, whether they can stack up wins even when shorthanded.
New York hasn’t been the second-best team in the WNBA, but they get the edge given the fact that they’re fresh off a championship and have hardly been at full strength. Come playoff time, the addition of Meesseman, a 2019 Finals MVP, could prove critical.
3. Las Vegas Aces (24-14)
On August 2nd, the Las Vegas Aces were 14-14 and fresh off a 53-point defeat to the Minnesota Lynx. Since then, they’ve won 10 straight games, catapulted to third in the league standings, and seen superstar A’ja Wilson re-enter the MVP conversation, if she was ever even out of it.
How did they do it? The two-time champions have seen their defense elevate during this span — they have the third-best defensive rating (100.9) in the WNBA over the past 10 games — and guards like Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd are all hitting their stride. Plus, midseason acquisition NaLyssa Smith has been majorly impactful in the frontcourt.
In her last 10 games, Wilson has averaged 27.3 points and 13.1 rebounds, shooting 50.3% from the field. And the Aces are firmly back in the championship conversation. In that span, she’s scored at least 30 points five times, including on Saturday, when she tallied 36 points and 13 rebounds in a comeback win over the Washington Mystics.
Whether the Aces will have the power to win another title remains to be seen, but their play of late has opened the door to that possibility.
The Atlanta Dream have quietly been the league’s second-best team this season. They’ve won 8 of their last 10 games, and Sixth Player of the Year candidate Naz Hillmon has begun campaigning for head coach Karl Smesko to win Coach of the Year. And, the only team they have a losing record against this season is the Aces.
“You go into the season, and we were ranked by some people as No. 7, and we’re ranked No. 2 right now,” Hillmon said, per USA Today’s Meghan Hall. “I think that speaks to what he’s done to make this team what it is.”
The Dream have been led by Allisha Gray, who is averaging a career-best 18.8 points per game. Fellow All-Star guard Rhyne Howard is tallying 16.2 points and 4.5 assists per game, and frontcourt offseason acquisitions Brionna Jones (12.7 points, 7.2 rebounds) and Brittney Griner (10 points, 5.5 rebounds) have both been impactful in Atlanta.
For Howard, this season has been about becoming a more well-rounded player.
“In the past, it’s been like score, score, score, but this year, I’m doing a little bit more rebounding and more assisting and keeping everybody involved and being more of a playmaker,” Howard told SB Nation. “I don’t have all the extra weight of having to necessarily score every time, because we have that much talent on our team. But, I’m able to still have an impact on the game.”
Atlanta has had the league’s second-best defense this season — and best in the last 10 games — leading the league in rebounding and coming second in three-point attempts. An offseason coaching shakeup has reaped enormous benefits, and an MVP-caliber season from Gray has thrust the Dream firmly into the championship conversation.
Honorable mentions: Phoenix Mercury (22-14), Seattle Storm (20-18)
