Team USA on brink of WBC elimination after stunning upset loss to Italy

Team USA entered the World Baseball Classic as one of the favorites in the tournament, thanks to a lineup featuring players like Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper, and a pitching rotation that included Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, last season’s Cy Young winners.

But after a stunning meltdown against Italy in pool play, Team USA is on the brink of elimination ahead of the quarterfinals, and will be relegated to watching with the rest of us on the final day of pool play as they await their fate.

Team USA lost to Italy 8-6 on Tuesday night, going down 8-0 before a furious comeback fell short when Judge struck out to end the game. Catcher Kyle Teel, shortstop Sam Antonacci, and right fielder Jac Caglianone all blasted home runs for Italy early in the contest, and a costly throwing error from pitcher Brad Keller, along with a wild pitch, helped Italy put three more runs on the board in the sixth inning to take an 8-0 lead.

The Americans then started to chip away at the eight-run lead, sparked by late home runs from Pete Crow-Armstrong and Gunnar Henderson, and Team USA trailed 8-5 in the bottom of the ninth. Crow-Armstrong made it an 8-6 game with his second home run of the night, and a single from Bobby Witt Jr. led to Judge striding to the plate with two outs, representing the potential tying run.

But relief pitcher Greg Weissert struck Judge out, ending the comeback attempt.

“It’s the toughest thing,” Judge said after the game. “You always like having your destiny in your own hands, and we had it right in front of us and Italy came out swinging.”

In the wake of the loss, comments and decisions from manager Mark DeRosa have come under increased scrutiny.

Speaking with Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds on the MLB Network show “Hot Stove” earlier in the day, DeRosa made it seem as if he believed that Team USA had already booked a spot in the quarterfinals by virtue of winning their first three games of pool play. DeRosa noted that Team USA wanted to win Tuesday night against Italy, “even though our ticket’s punched to the quarterfinals.”

However, thanks to the tiebreaker rules for the World Baseball Classic, that was not the case.

You can see that moment here:

DeRosa rested some players who were in the starting lineup earlier in pool play, including Bryce Harper and Alex Bregman. He also decided not to pinch run for Paul Goldschmidt after a single in the seventh inning, and while he scored on Crow-Armstrong’s first home run of the game, he was on third for that blast, after he was held up on a double from pinch hitter Brice Turang.

Speaking after the game, DeRosa admitted that he “misspoke” when he was on “Hot Stove:”

Now, Team USA has to wait until the end of Wednesday’s game between Italy and Mexico to learn their fate. Italy currently leads Pool B with an unblemished 3-0 record, followed by the United States at 3-1, and Mexico at 2-1. Both Great Britain and Brazil have been eliminated, and the top two teams from each pool advance to the quarterfinals.

All three teams — Italy, the United States, and Mexico — are still alive for a spot in the quarterfinals. If Italy defeats Mexico, then Italy would advance with a 4-0 record, and Team USA would advance as Mexico would drop to 2-2 in pool play.

But if Mexico wins, it becomes very complicated.

All three teams would be 3-1, and the tiebreaker scenarios (which are rather confusing) would come into play. The three teams would be ranked based on the runs they allowed during pool play in games between the tied teams, divided by the defensive outs they recorded, as the first tie breaker.

Should the teams remain tied after that first tiebreaker, then the next tiebreaker is earned runs allowed, divided by defensive outs.

To this point, the United States has allowed 11 runs — with eight of those earned — in their games against Italy and Mexico. Team USA played 54 defensive outs in those two games.

Mexico has allowed five runs, all of which were earned, and all of which have come against Team USA. Mexico played 24 defensive outs in those games, as Team USA was the home team and did not bat in the bottom of the ninth.

Italy has allowed six runs, all of which were earned in their win over Team USA. Italy played 27 defensive outs in that game.

By virtue of having played 54 defensive outs, at the moment Team USA leads in both that first tiebreaker, and the second:

Since Mexico goes into Wednesday’s game against Italy having already allowed fewer runs, then a Mexico win means they advance.

Should Italy-Mexico last nine innings, Team USA would advance if Italy gives up five runs or more, and loses.

But if Italy loses — but gives up four runs or less — then Italy would advance under these tiebreaker rules.

Here is another way of looking at it:

Regardless of the scenarios, this is not where Team USA expected to be on the final day of pool play, waiting on a result between Italy and Mexico as they watch from their hotel in Houston.

“It’s out of our control,” said Judge. “Now we just need a little luck, and we’ll see what happens.”