New England Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye enjoyed a tremendous regular season. He propelled the Patriots to a 14-3 record, was among the league’s most efficient downfield passers, helped New England generate 69 explosive passing plays this year — second only to the Los Angeles Rams — and also finished second in MVP voting, behind only Matthew Stafford. It was a dream season.
That turned into a nightmare in the playoffs.
While Maye and the Patriots advanced to Super Bowl LX, it was largely New England’s defense, as well as the circumstances of each of their first three playoff games, that saw New England advance. The efficient, explosive New England passing game largely disappeared in New England’s run to the Super Bowl, and once the Patriots arrived in Santa Clara to take on the Seattle Seahawks and the best scoring defense in the NFL, that passing game was nowhere to be found.
Instead, fans were busy searching “has an NFL team ever been shutout in the Super Bowl” into the fourth quarter.
So just how bad was it for Maye in the playoffs, and where do the Patriots go from here?
Let’s start by looking at just how efficient the second-year quarterback was during the regular season. We already noted the 69 explosive passing plays — defined as gains of 20 yards or more through the air — which was a remarkable turnaround from where New England was a year ago, at the bottom of the league. But looking at QB Efficiency as determined through a composite of Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage above Expectation, and you will see that Maye quite literally broke the chart this season:
That is the type of chart you are used to seeing from, say, Patrick Mahomes.
Now, let’s look at the playoffs, excluding the Super Bowl:
Instead of Maye breaking the chart, it is Sam Darnold, the quarterback he would face in Super Bowl LX. But during New England’s three playoff wins — over the Los Angeles Chargers, the Houston Texans, and the Denver Broncos — his numbers took a massive dip.
Looking at more traditional stats, you can see the fall off in the playoffs as well. During the regular season Maye completed 71.9% of his passes for 4,393 yards and 31 touchdowns, against just 8 interceptions, for an NFL Passer Rating of 113.5 (best in the league), a QBR of 77.1 (best in the league), a Net Yards per Attempt of 7.78 (best in the league) and an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 8.26 (again, best in the league).
In the three playoff games leading up to Super Bowl LX, Maye completed 43-of-77 passes (55.8%) for 533 yards and four touchdowns, against a pair of interceptions. That was good for an NFL Passer Rating of just 83.96, a far cry from where he was in the regular season. He was also sacked a total of 15 times, one in each of those playoff games.
Then came Super Bowl LX, where Maye, against Seattle’s elite defense, completed 27-of-43 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, while getting sacked twice.
When you add up his playoff run, including the Super Bowl, it was not exactly one for the ages:
Again, Total EPA is just one metric, but Maye’s play certainly fell off during the postseason.
Certainly there is some context to consider, on both sides of that coin. As has been heavily discussed, New England faced a rather easy schedule during the regular season. In fact, the Patriots’ regular-season schedule was the easiest for a team since the 1999 St. Louis Rams, and while that group went on to win the Super Bowl, New England could not match the effort.
The playoffs were a much different story. Between the Chargers, the Texans, the Broncos, and finally the Seahawks, the Patriots faced four of the top-ten scoring defenses in the league, building to the No. 1 unit in Seattle in Super Bowl LX.
That is going to make things tougher for any quarterback, not just Maye.
And how did those teams make life tougher for Maye? Pressure. In the regular season, according to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Maye posted a league-best Adjusted Completion Percentage of 72.4% when pressured, as he was on 37.9% of his dropbacks.
In the three AFC playoff games, that ACP dropped to 61.5%, and remember he was sacked 15 times.
The result was a quarterback with a sped-up internal clock, and if you recall Super Bowl LX you probably remember Cris Collinsworth talking about Maye’s internal clock all game long. As a quarterback you enter each play with an expectation of how much time you will have to throw based on the route concept, the protection scheme, and any potential blitz the defense is throwing your way. But the more pressure — consistent, sustained pressure — you face in the pocket the more you will speed up that clock in your mind.
And when you start speeding yourself up and artificially playing faster, things tend to fall apart.
For example, take this incompletion from New England’s win over the Texans, as Maye feels the pressure early in the play and cannot get his feet under him on the throw, which falls well short of its intended target:
Or this play from the AFC Championship Game where he drifts away from pressure, keeps his feet unsettled, and misses what could have been a touchdown pass to Rhamondre Stevenson:
Consider it the “body blow” theory of quarterbacking. The more hits you take, the more pressure you are under, the less comfortable you feel in the pocket. And perhaps the most perplexing part of this phenomenon? When you do have time in the pocket, you still do not feel comfortable
As we saw on perhaps Maye’s worst miss of Super Bowl LX from a clean pocket:
Of course, what tends to happen after a game — and a postseason — like this is the overreaction, particularly after Maye nearly won the MVP award. In the hours after Super Bowl LX the questions began, ranging from whether he was truly struggling with a right shoulder injury more than he let on, to whether he is overrated, or to questions about the offensive line. Those questions focused on the left side of New England’s front five, rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, and the left tackle in particular. Campbell was inconsistent during the regular season, and after returning from a knee injury just in time for the playoffs, things did not improve.
According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Campbell gave up 11 pressures in the three AFC playoff games.
However, the answer might simply lie in the above context.
New England faced an easy regular-season schedule, which paved the way for a dream season for Maye.
That dream turned into a nightmare when the Patriots went up against four of the toughest defenses in the league.
