Welcome to part two of the Super Bowl LIX breakdown from Establish the Fun. Read our film review of the Chiefs offense vs. Eagles defense. Now let’s dive into the other side of the ball.
Now, you’re probably expecting me to start off with something here about QB Jalen Hurts and the passing game.
YOU THOUGHT WRONG!
As up and down as Hurts and the Eagles’ passing game has been this season, they do so well at avoiding these situations because they’re one of the best rushing teams in the sport. Kansas City will have to be much better in their defense on the ground than they were in their win over the Bills in the AFC title game against this Eagles team, but how both teams get to their run schemes is much different. While the Bills majored in duo, mid zone, and then throwing in tackle dart on occasions, the Eagles are more of a counter team and use inside zone as their changeup.
Because of how athletic Philadelphia’s offensive line is, they specialize in GT Counter, where both the guard and tackle pull.
They use Hurts along with this on Counter Bash, where the guard and tackle pull opposite of the direction the back is going, instead leading for Hurts. This allows the Eagles’ QB to get downhill with lead blockers, often a bad scenario for the defense.
I’m a little intrigued by how the Chiefs defend the run this week, because the Eagles’ run scheme is a lot more similar to the Ravens, who they faced in week one. Even then, the Ravens have a much more explosive run threat at QB and poses different problems than the Eagles. Yet, I think the Chiefs will pull out a similar defensive gameplan. Expect a lot of their linebackers walked up, or DB Chamarri Conner if they want to play in nickel. What this does is creates a hard edge to either force plays to bounce or box them back inside.
LB Leo Chenal (No. 54) loses the edge here because of all the run stuff thrown at him, but you get a great play by LB Nick Bolton (No. 32), who played well in the SB win against Philly.
On this one, they have Conner as the backside EDGE player, tracking this play down from the backside. I think KC is going to have to show the Eagles different looks up front to disrupt the timing of their run game if they want to slow Philly down.
If we use the 2022 Super Bowl to inform us of anything when it comes to Hurts’ performance, I think he should be fine. The biggest thing for Hurts as a passer is for him to take the easy stuff when it’s there. This season, he’s turned down a few passing options in order to scramble, and while I think he can do that, I don’t think that’s his game. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will have to give him easier stuff to get him warmed up and into the flow of the game so they can attack downfield, which they had success doing in their first Super Bowl matchup. I think the run game will play a large role in that, because it keeps the Eagles out of situations where Spags and the Chiefs can throw all the weird pressure looks at them. In a game where Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens might be hampered, that could be their best option.
We’ve all seen the pressure numbers for Hurts at this point. He’s one of the worst when it comes to EPA and Success Rate, but has also thrown six TDs while under pressure. I think he played his best football of the season against Washington, and it’s partially because he was finding his answers against simulated pressures. Washington tries to play a funky inverted Cover 2 here, bringing LB Bobby Wagner and dropping LB Frankie Luvu. Hurts doesn’t panic, knows where his answer is and delivers a 15-yard pass to WR AJ Brown.
However, the Eagles face the king of the single game defensive gameplan and one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL. Spags trusts his secondary to do so much when it comes to the changing pictures and looks he can throw at opponents, and they’re all feisty blitzers from depth. When the Chiefs can use pressures like this one against Houston, they’re extremely tough to beat.
To me, the battle on this side of the ball is going to come down to first and second down. Spags and the Chiefs want to get you into obvious passing situations, and while Hurts can win that way, it would make the game a lot easier on them if he doesn’t have to try and decipher the Spags code in obvious passing situations. Conversely, I wonder how the Chiefs defend the run after getting gashed against Buffalo. This is a much different beast than the Bills are, but if they can stymie the run game and prevent a Saquon Barkley lightning bolt, they could be in good shape.
