Should the Warriors, Celtics, Cavs and Nuggets blow it up? Or continue to build?

The last three teams to win NBA championships have all been eliminated early in the 2025 Playoffs. Joining them is a top-seeded title favorite, who despite their improvements and massive spending, only managed one win in the second round.

Apart from not meeting their title aspirations, they will now join several other teams in dealing with the dreaded tax aprons that threaten to force major changes. So where do the Celtics, Warriors, Nuggets and Cavs go from here?

Do they start a complete rebuild? Reload and try again? Somewhere in the middle? That’s what we’ll try to figure out as we chart the biggest issues and likely next steps for every NBA team that faced an early exit.

This offseason promises to be chaotic, and a lot of the big moves could begin with the deepest team in the league hitting the reset button.

Boston Celtics

61-21 season, No. 2 seed in East, lost 4-2 to Knicks

Under contract: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Baylor Scheierman, Xavier Tillman

Non-Guaranteed: Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh

Team option: J.D. Davison

Two-way: Miles Norris

Free agents: Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Torrey Craig

Current team salary: $227 million, according to Salary Swish

Projected salary cap space: Around $74 million over the cap, $20 million over the Second Apron

Next moves: Gap year? Major pieces likely to go.

Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

Even before the NBA Playoffs started, there were reasons people thought this would be the Celtics’ final run with this current core. Saying that about a team that just won the NBA championship a year ago would’ve been unheard of in previous eras, but the current CBA just doesn’t make long runs as sustainable.

The Celtics have new ownership that just purchased the team for $6.1 billion, the highest price for a US franchise ever. Apart from already having the highest player salary in the league, they’re more than likely to have well over double that amount in taxes, projecting to make them the most expensive roster in NBA history.

The Celtics have been classified as a repeat tax offender, meaning they’ll face harsher penalties after going over the tax threshold in at least three of the last four years. Even if they renounce their key free agents like Horford and Kornet, the Celtics are still facing a luxury tax hit of at least $238 million. For context, that low tax estimate alone is already $24 million more than the most expensive NBA team salary this past season. That tax can also go well over $263 million after signing their upcoming draft picks, as next season’s increased penalties can go as high as $5.5 million to $6.75 million for every additional $1 million in salary.

They were already facing all those issues prior to the Playoffs, and Jayson Tatum’s achilles injury may have just been the final nail on the coffin for this core. They’re still a decent playoff team without Tatum, but ownership will not pay $500 million in combined salary and taxes for what is essentially a gap year.

Celtics could lose free agents like Horford, and also trade away key players like Kristaps Porzingis ($30.7 million), Jrue Holiday ($32 million) and Sam Hauser ($10 million) to save money. Moving Jaylen Brown, the Finals MVP a year ago, is also thought to be on the table as well during this gap year, as they could potentially look to do a complete reset around Tatum and possibly White for the 2026-2027 season.

As it stands, the Celtics are pretty much hard-capped, and can’t aggregate contracts or take more money in a trade. They can’t send out cash as a sweetener for salary dumps, nor can they even use their mid-level exception. With only a few NBA teams with cap space, they will also have to take in some salary in return, making any cost-cutting trades a tad more complicated on top of the previously mentioned restrictions.

The silver lining for the Celtics is that their talented players will have suitors and are relatively easier to move, and they also control their first round picks in five of the next seven years. Should they be able to get their tax situation under control and get more draft assets in return, they could still be in a good (enough) position two seasons from now.

Reload or Rebuild?

Unfortunately, contending or even continuing with this core is no longer realistic, so expect a drastic rebuild as they plan for the 2027 season instead.

Cleveland Cavaliers

64-18 season, No. 1 seed in East, lost 4-1 to Pacers

Under contract: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, De’Andre Hunter, Jarrett Allen, Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, Jaylon Tyson

Non-guaranteed: Dean Wade, Craig Porter Jr.

Team option: Chuma Okeke

Two-way: Nae’qwan Tomlin

Free agents: Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill, Tristan Thompson, Javonte Green

Dead money: Ricky Rubio ($424K)

Current team salary: $210 million, according to Salary Swish

Projected salary cap space: From $53 to $55 million over the cap, already over the Second Apron

Next moves: Re-sign Jerome and/or Merrill, tweak core?

Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

After having the best season they’ve ever had without LeBron James on the roster, the Cavs looked poised for a championship run as the No. 1 seed. They started 15-0 and barely lost all year, so expectations were sky high after a dominant 64-win season.

With the Coach of the Year, the best offense in the NBA, and a deeper roster, this season was supposed to be different for the Cavs. Unfortunately, this core group lost to a lower seed for the second time in three years, and again failed to win more than one game in the second round.

Injuries clearly played a part, with Donovan Mitchell hobbled and two other core stars out for Game 2, but it also wasn’t the entire story. As we’ve seen in the last three years, there are some issues with this talented but mismatched core.

Despite Jarrett Allen showing flashes of brilliance and an ability to co-exist with Evan Mobley, the pairing was again clunky and inconsistent in the playoffs, and both seem to struggle with physicality. Allen, who gets $20 million next season before his 3-year $90.7 million extension kicks in, is likely a prime candidate for any trade. There’d be no shortage of suitors, and the Cavs can conceivably bring in a big with a better fit, or address other holes and move Mobley up to center permanently.

The Cavs only have one first round pick to trade (either 2031 or 2032), and have tradable contracts in De’Andre Hunter ($23 million), Max Strus ($16 million) and Isaac Okoro ($11 million), but it’ll be more interesting to see if they actually move on from their current two-guard, two-big core.

Unfortunately, even if they did want a big change, making moves will be much more complicated now. The Cavs (rightfully) went all-in to contend, even trading for Hunter at the deadline, but this roster is already past the Second Apron even before re-signing its free agents.

Trades would require them to find equal or cheaper options, as they can’t aggregate contracts or take in more money. They can’t use their mid-level exception either, so any new signings will all be minimum contract veterans.

With how complicated it is to get external help, they should probably try to re-sign Ty Jerome and Sam Merrill rather than lose them for nothing. Jerome will now be far more expensive than this last $5 million deal though. The silver lining for the Cavs is that they’re not considered a repeater tax offender yet, meaning they won’t be penalized as obscenely as the aforementioned Celtics for keeping their free agents, so it mostly falls on Dan Gilbert’s willingness to spend.

With roster restrictions, it seems more likely for the Cavs to just make moves around the margins. Perhaps their hope will be that if they can stay healthy and have another year under this new system, it’d be enough to finally get over the hump. It’s not a bad choice given their great season and room for growth, but it’s not like they have many other options.

Reload or Rebuild?

I still think that core should be tweaked, but it’s a lot easier said than done. The Cavs are most likely to try and save some money and just reload with a similar roster.

Golden State Warriors

48-34 season, lost 4-1 to Timberwolves

Under contract: Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski

Non Guaranteed: Trayce Jackson-Davis

Team option: Gui Santos, Quinten Post

Two-way: Jackson Rowe

Free agents: Jonathan Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Pat Spencer, Kevin Knox, Braxton Key

Current team salary: $170.5 million, according to Salary Swish

Projected salary cap space: From $17 to $18.7 million over the cap, still under the First Apron

Next moves: Build around Curry’s final run by making smaller trades or… (over)paying Kuminga?

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

It’s difficult to objectively see where this current Warriors team stands after Steph Curry went down early in the second round.

They went 23-7 with Butler late in the season, beat the second-seeded Rockets, and won the first game against the Wolves, even surviving to hold on after Curry got injured. We saw glimpses of a potential contender, but those came in small sample sizes and with caveats. Either way, this is still Steph Curry we’re talking about, and the Warriors will have to go all in on his final run.

The Warriors have been big game hunting the last couple of years, and while there might just be a Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant sweepstakes this offseason, early reports suggest that Golden State will now just look for role players instead. This isn’t entirely by choice, though.

The team’s roster is very top-heavy, with Curry and Butler and Green accounting for almost $140 million alone. The rest of the tradable contracts drop to $11.6 million for Moody, $9.2 million for Buddy Hield, and their biggest trade piece in Brandin Podziemski with his team-friendly $3.7 million deal.

Podziemski will draw interest even if he isn’t exactly the All-Star they envisioned, but to match contracts, will teams really rush to part with a star to take older vets like Green or (an again disgruntled) Butler?

Their trade pieces don’t exactly fit and they can’t outbid teams like the Spurs and Rockets, so unless a star demands to only play for the Warriors, they will really be left working to get role players instead. That isn’t really a bad thing, and fortunately, they will have more options and far more flexibility than some other teams on this list. The Warriors’ core starters are all under contract, and they still have $25 million to re-sign free agents before hitting the First Apron. They also have four tradable first round picks.

Payton and Looney are worth locking up, but the polarizing Kuminga and his likely restricted free agency is the most interesting player to watch here. He’s still just 22, with some upside, but instead of taking that next step they hoped, he actually fell out of the rotation in the Rockets series. He flashed that promise and averaged 24 points in the final four games against the Wolves, but those were all losses when their first option was out.

They’ve already tried to move Kuminga before, and were far apart in money during past negotiations. Currently, the Nets are the only team with substantial cap space, but are they even interested in spending that on Kuminga? The Warriors will also probably match and accept an overpay instead of losing him for nothing.

If they can’t agree on a figure, they could either settle for a short-term deal to kick the can down the road and have Kuminga prove his value, or more likely, work towards a complicated sign-and-trade.

It may be hard to match salaries and get a max-level star, but dangling a combination of Kuminga, Podziemski and any of their first round picks could get them key players —perhaps a big and/or a consistent scorer — to pair with Curry and Butler.

The Warriors have options and some flexibility, but a lot of their moves will depend on how Kuminga’s situation plays out.

Reload or Rebuild?

Warriors will probably scour the market for trades, but they will largely have to reload around Curry and Butler’s final run.

Denver Nuggets

50-32 season, lost 4-3 to Thunder

Under contract: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, DaRon Holmes II, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, Hunter Tyson

Player option: Dario Saric, Russell Westbrook

Free agents: DeAndre Jordan, Vlatko Cancar

Current team salary: $199.5 million according to Salary Swish

Projected salary cap space: From $37 million to $44.8 million over the cap, already over the first apron

Next moves: Get a new GM, start major rebuild around Jokic?

Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

If there’s a perfect example of just how difficult it is to maintain a championship roster and extend your title window during this tax apron era, it’s the Denver Nuggets. After winning their first NBA title in 2023, CBA issues led to them losing key role players each year in Bruce Brown (2023) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (2024).

Nikola Jokic may still be the best basketball player on the planet, but their lack of depth around him has never been more glaring than it is now. There’s no shame in losing to the top-seeded Thunder in seven games, but things just don’t seem to be sustainable with the injury-riddled and expensive core around Jokic, and more tax issues to come.

The Nuggets’ roster is very top-heavy, with Jokic ($55 million), Murray ($46 million), Porter ($38 million) and Gordon ($23 million) alone already putting them over the cap. Murray and Porter both have max deals, while Gordon’s extension will also bump him up to $32 million in the 2026-2027 season, when he turns 31. Like the Celtics, they’re also a repeat tax offender, with extreme penalties on their spending.

That supporting cast certainly earned those paydays after winning the title, but at least a couple of them have either been banged up or underperformed in relation to their star-player-level salary in recent years.

Porter, who is still just 26, is the most logical candidate for a trade after his playoff struggles, but Gordon and Murray shouldn’t be untouchable either. As noted earlier, there will be superstars in the trade market and teams like the Celtics are likely to give up a lot of quality players. The Nuggets don’t necessarily need to find equivalent max-level talent for their players though, as they can also benefit by getting multiple cheaper role players to bolster their depth instead.

Jokic is a generational talent in his prime, and they should really do everything to maximize that window. Without touching their core, though, the Nuggets will have to settle for minimum contracts again, which doesn’t seem ideal if they want to get back to the NBA Finals.

Another wrinkle into these plans is that the Nuggets, who shockingly fired both their coach and GM before the playoffs, will still have to hire a new GM before they can even start making offseason moves. Early reports suggest interim GM Ben Tenzer will just get promoted, but he or whoever takes that seat will immediately have difficult decisions to make.

Reload or Rebuild?

The more likely outcome is to reload one last time around this core. But while it’s much easier said than done, the best move might just be a complete rebuild of the supporting cast around Jokic.

Photo by Jeremy Chen/Getty Images

Reload or Rebuild quick hits: First round exits

Milwaukee Bucks: With Damian Lillard out for next season, there’s so much talk about Giannis Antetokounmpo being shipped out. Should he ask out, a firesale and complete rebuild is probably the right call with their already mounting tax issues.

LA Clippers: James Harden is likely to decline his option and sign another short-term deal. I highly doubt they do this, but I think they should just go on a full rebuild instead of settling for more first round exits with their two aging stars.

LA Lakers: They already badly needed a center even with Anthony Davis on the team, and it was borderline negligence not getting one after shipping him out. They need to immediately address that, and reload around Luka Doncic for what could be LeBron James’ last run.

Houston Rockets: They’ll try to join the Giannis sweepstakes with five tradable first round picks, but if that doesn’t materialize, they can just reload with mostly the same core that got them the No. 2 seed.

Detroit Pistons: They already overachieved going from dead last to making the playoffs. They should use that cap space to get quality vets or take big contracts to accumulate more assets, then just reload and keep getting Cunningham and Co. more experience.

Orlando Magic: This team is about to get expensive, which could be why they’re pushing to make big changes. With extensive draft capital and young players on hand, they’re now talking about making trades to land a “proven” shot-maker. Easier said than done, but the Magic are likely looking to rebuild a new core and go into “win now” mode.

Miami Heat: Pat Riley already noted that they won’t continue with the same roster, which might just mean everyone is on the table. The Post-Butler Heat will probably see even more chaos this offseason as a result, but it’s still the right move to start collecting more assets and go into a complete rebuild.

Memphis Grizzlies: They should get healthy, hire a coach that can build an identity, and use that cap space and flexibility to reload around Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.

Outside of basketball, Anton Tabuena also covers jiu-jitsu and other combat sports for SB Nation over at MMA Mania.