The Vikings never thought they’d be in this position. Sam Darnold was supposed to be a caretaker, a placeholder — instead he led the Vikings to the playoffs, almost secured an NFC North title, and made the Pro Bowl in the process. It’s left Minnesota needing to think about their future at quarterback in an entirely different way, and that decision is looming large.
It’s now being reported that the Vikings won’t use the franchise tag on Darnold to keep him one more year, which was expected to be the most-likely path to them retaining the quarterback. However, that also doesn’t mean the team is ready to let him go — with negotiations ongoing about whether there’s a way to retain the QB moving forward.
The outcome of the Darnold situation will obviously have a profound effect on the Vikings, but it will also shake up free agency, and the NFL Draft. Dominoes toppling solely as a result of this decision. Let’s break down each of the paths forward and what it means for the Vikings and beyond.
Option 1: Minnesota re-sign Sam Darnold long term
What it means for the Vikings
A lot depends on the terms of the contract here. It had been projected that Darnold could make as much as $50M a year in free agency considering he’s entering in a weak market, with a weak draft class. It’s essentially made him the crown jewel, when he was on a lifeline a year ago.
Making a big commitment to Darnold moving forward would mean going all in on him. That has a profound effect on J.J. McCarthy’s future in Minnesota. He was drafted to be the heir apparent at QB, but injury issues, paired with Darnold’s breakout could make the team’s top pick in 2024 expendable. If that happens there would be no shortage of suitors.
What it means for the rest of the NFL
If any team hoped to find their QB of the future in free agency they now have to pivot. Darnold is essentially the only long-term option who would have been available, which means either now settling for a short-term answer like Russell Wilson, or turning to the draft.
Considering the Titans, Raiders and Giants are all in dire need of a QB it could either pressure them into taking quarterbacks when they didn’t plan to, or pivoting to trying to work out other arrangements. Alternatively, if this results in the Vikings shopping McCarthy, then one would have to imagine the Giants and Raiders in particular would be interested.
If given the choice between taking Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, and trading the pick for McCarthy — well, McCarthy could be better than either. It’s just one outlet, but in the NFL’s scouting pages Ward received a 6.39 grade, Sanders got a 6.30 — and in 2024 McCarthy received a 6.40 grade. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Vikings could land a Top 3 pick and improve their return from a year ago.
Option 2: Sam Darnold walks
What it means for the Vikings
It gets very complicated for Minnesota at this point. It’s unclear when McCarthy will be able to return to full participation after meniscus surgery — or how he was progressing in learning the offense prior to being hurt. It’s important to remember that McCarthy is young, and was always deemed to be a “project,” so it might take some time for him to be ready.
That means the Vikings either need to push him into the starting role and see if he sinks or swims, or pivot to potentially re-signing Daniel Jones, also provided on what he’s learned since being signed.
What it means for the rest of the NFL
A bidding war. Plain and simple. At least three teams would have interest in Darnold in free agency, potentially even more. It’s unclear what the Steelers, Jets, Browns or Saints plan at QB long-term and that could cause them to enter the QB market as well.
In terms of the draft it likely means that Ward and Sanders go later than they would otherwise. All it would take is one QB-needy team to land Darnold and it could cause players to fall.
What’s the most likely outcome?
It feels highly unlikely the the Vikings will alter their plans solely because Darnold had a single standout year. It simply risks too much for them. They had faith in McCarthy to take the torch, and while Darnold was astounding in 2024 — he’s still Sam Darnold, and that may have been the absolute ceiling he can reach in the NFL, which is getting eliminated in the playoffs.
Factor in that Darnold would eat a lot of the Vikings available cap space, and it’s a bad time to make a big commitment to a guy without being 100% sure he’s the man. Allow someone else to take the risk, and play it smart. Move forward with McCarthy and see what happens next.
