Olympics’ final 4 men’s basketball teams, ranked by gold medal chances in Paris

Twelve teams entered the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Now only four remain. The United States, Germany, France, and Serbia advanced to the semifinals on Tuesday in a thrilling day of action that included big upsets and historic comebacks. This tournament — rightfully billed as the most talented in the history of the Olympics — has lived up to every ounce of hype so far, and the finish promises to be the best part yet.

We ranked Canada as the second-best team in the field ahead of the quarterfinals. Whoops. Instead, France benched Rudy Gobert and blitzed the Canadians with a punishing inside scoring attack. Elsewhere, Serbia wiped out the biggest deficit in Olympics history to stun Australia, and the United States and Germany took care of business.

Before the semifinals tip off on Thursday, here’s how we’d rank the four teams remaining by their chances of capturing the gold medal.

4. Serbia

Serbia’s Olympic dream was on life support when Australia raced out to a 24-point lead in the quarterfinals. That’s when Nikola Jokic reminded the crowd in Paris that he’s the best player in the world. Jokic was making winning plays all over the floor as Serbia eventually wrestled away the lead in the third quarter, showing off his elite interior scorer, passing, and rebounding, while also utilizing the FIBA rules for one key block off the rim. Serbia hasn’t played through Jokic (who wasn’t a member of last year’s World Cup team) as much as you might expect, but the team still knows where to go with the ball when the game is on the line. For as impressive as Serbia’s comeback was, it’s hard to see their pathway to a win over the USA unless their guards really go off. Vasilije Micic and Bogdan Bogdanovic both started to unlock their offense against Greece, but doing it vs. Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and the rest of the U.S. defense is a much tougher task. It’s wild to think that Serbia will have the best player on the floor in the matchup, but Team USA has the next 12 best players. Serbia can keep it close if it plays its best game, but the U.S. should be too much.

Photo by Tom Weller/VOIGT/GettyImages

3. France

Head coach Vincent Collet benched Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier in the quarterfinals against Canada, and the lineup change gave France what it needed to pull off the huge upset. The French went small with Isaïa Cordinier and Guerschon Yabusele attacking a weak Canadian front court, allowing them to somehow win a game where Gobert and Nic Batum went scoreless, and Victor Wembanyama shot only 2-for-10 from the field. France probably won’t be able to stick with a small ball lineup against a German team with tons of beef in the middle (Daniel Theis, Johannes Voigtmann, and Mo Wagner), but it needs to continue finding ways to create spacing and keep the ball moving. France’s poor guard play will remain to be an issue in any matchup, but Fournier getting hot off the bench was a trend it would like to see continue. The path to the French punching their ticket to the gold medal game starts with Wembanyama bouncing back offensively, and likely needs to include Gobert getting back on the floor and fortifying the paint. If France can beat Canada, you shouldn’t discount the home team’s chances against anyone.

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

2. Germany

Germany was on the ropes early against Greece, but this German team is too tough and too organized to go out sad in the quarterfinals against a major underdog. Germany forged its comeback behind star Franz Wagner’s perimeter creation ability, and a lockdown defense that held Greece to 27 second half points. While he’s still ice cold as a three-point shooter, Wagner remains one of the most devastating scorers left in this field, big enough to power his way deep into the paint, and skilled enough to finish. Dennis Schröder continues to be the ‘lightning’ that complements Wagner’s ‘thunder’ offensively. The veteran guard is simply way too quick for France’s shaky guard rotation. This is becoming a golden era for German basketball with a 2023 World Cup championship to their name and now their first ever berth in the Olympic semifinals. The Germans play hard and play together. They have two great creation options in the younger Wagner brother and Schröder, and they have plenty of size down low. Even against a hostile French environment, Germany deserves to be the favorite to play for gold.

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

1. United States

Brazil was never going to test the United States, and indeed it did not. The U.S. turned their quarterfinal matchup into a rout by the second quarter with Steve Kerr’s team again flexing its stunning combination of depth and firepower. The best quality of this USA team is it can still thrive even if its biggest stars have an off-night. Six American players reached double-figures in scoring against Brazil, and a balanced offensive attack should continue as the status quo for a group that has been very willing to make sacrifices and share the ball. The scary thing for the rest of the world is that Team USA looks this good without Stephen Curry hitting many shots from deep. Serbia will still be a big test for the U.S. It has the best player on the floor, and it plays with a togetherness that helps inspire upsets. This is the type of team that could give the USA trouble on paper, but right now Kerr’s squad is playing at such a high level that it’s difficult to doubt them. Team USA has won seven of the last eight gold medals in men’s basketball, and they’re two wins away from adding another one. At the moment, it doesn’t look like anyone can stop them.