Winning the Stanley Cup is grueling. It’s without a doubt one of the most difficult trophies to win in sports, requiring teams to somehow put together an 82-game run (84 after this season!), then survive numerous best-of-seven series in the most brutal conditions imaginable.
Yet, somehow the Florida Panthers have made it all look easy. Custom built for the postseason with depth few teams can match and a love for bending the rules, the Panthers have essentially accessed hockey’s cheat code to winning it all on their back-to-back championship runs. As they quest for their three-peat today we rank every NHL team by its chances to survive to the end and hoist the cup.
This shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Sharks are deep in a rebuild, and there’s plenty of promise for the future in Macklin Celebrini and Michael Misa — but they’re not going to be close to sniffing a cup in 2025-26.
There’s real pressure to put this team in win-now mode to leverage Connor Bedard, but this is another organization that simply doesn’t have the talent to do anything meaningful in the upcoming season. We can revisit this in three or four years when Chicago’s prospects are ready to come up.
Matty Beniers looks like the real deal, but there’s just no top-end talent to get the Kraken into a winning position. The fact this team is still relying on Jordan Eberle as a first-line RW tells you pretty much all you need to know about this team’s depth.
It would be such a feel-good story if Pittsburgh could make one more run with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but that’s not happening. This team is lacking both the depth, and talent to put together a significant playoff push. Crosby is still an incredible player, but outside of him and Rickard Rakell there isn’t much to write home about.
There’s talent here to be sure, but it’s just too soon. Dealing away JJ Peterka to Utah was acknowledgment this organization doesn’t believe he can take the next step. There’s a ton of promise on defense with Rasmus Dahlin and Michael Kesselring, but who exactly is going to be scoring for the Sabres this season?
Mason McTavish was supposed to become the face of the franchise, but he’s developing slower than anticipated in the NHL. This could be the season Leo Carlsson makes the jump, however a huge season from him won’t be enough to mitigate a lot of the other issues on this team.
The Flames know they’re living on borrowed time, and I think this is the year it breaks. Relying on Nazim Kadri as the top point scorer isn’t sustainable, and a lot of faith is being put in Joel Farabee to step up. There’s going to be some major retooling happening soon, and I don’t think this upcoming season will have a great end for them.
The lack of solid forward play is a huge issue. The Islanders definitely made the right choice taking Mathew Schaeffer with the No. 1 pick, and he’ll be expected to make the jump immediately — but I just don’t know where the points are supposed to come from for this team.
The Preds are just too old to be taken seriously. Nashville is largely unchanged from a year ago when they went 30-44-8, and still have too much riding on guys in their 30s to keep things afloat.
23. Columbus Blue Jackets
It’s going to be a slow burn for Columbus as GM Don Waddell attempts to build this team the right way, as he did with the Carolina Hurricanes. There are some nice pieces here, but nothing to write home about. It’s not about competing now for Columbus, but positioning them to be a force in 3-4 years.
I’m a lot higher on the Flyers than most entering the season. This team has done brilliant work in the draft in recent years, and feels like they’re right on the verge of breaking out and stepping up a tier with the competition. Philadelphia has great wing play, but questionable centers is what will hold this team back.
Todd McClellan got this team on the right foot when he was made head coach admit a mid-season chance, and the Wings look more competitive — but they’re simply not there yet. Lucas Raymond and Maro Kasper are the future, but they need more time to season and become competitive, game-altering players.
David Pastrňák is a god, and then it’s crickets. The Bruins made the commitment to a small rebuild by dealing Brad Marchand at the deadline, and it’s going to be a rough season in 2025-26 because of it. Amassing draft capital and strengthening their depth is the right move — but that doesn’t mean Boston will be competitive this season.
Vancouver are largely struggling because too many of the prospects they hopes could develop into elite NHL players didn’t really pan out. Guys like Brock Boeser and Connor Garland never really took the next step, and that’s caused a talent drain on the entire roster.
The new-look Mammoth get their full rebrand this season, and should take a step forward with the addition of J.J. Peterka via trade. That said, there’s not much else to really write home about here. The Mammoth need to put together some solid drafts and deepen their prospet pool before they can truly compete.
Suggesting the Canadiens are on the right track is tempting too much fate, but this team is on the right track. The emergency of Lane Hutson last year was a massive boon, and the Calder-winning defenseman is the perfect addition to this team. There’s also some big-time talent in Nick Suzuki and Cole Caulfield, but this organization just needs a little more time in the oven.
Jim Montgomery turned this franchise around when he took over as head coach last season and now it’s on the Blues to build on that. There’s nothing this franchise really needs to do this season, because they’re on the right trajectory — just need a few more years to put it all together.
This might be viewed as too low by some, but the Wild are just a step or two away from actually contending. The first thing they need to determine is whether or not Kirill Kaprizov was worth the massive extension he got from the team. If he returns to being a 100 point player and Matt Boldy takes another step then this team could be really good in another couple of years. The Wild are playing the long game, and immediate success shouldn’t be assumed.
So, this is it. The Capitals are going to attempt to ride off into the sunset with Alex Ovechkin and give him a memorable end to his NHL career. It might be a feel-good story to envision the Caps making a deep run, but they know deep down it’s not happening. Washington has been in a holding pattern for Ovi in recent years, waiting to rebuild when he hangs it up. This is still a very good team, but they’re more or less punting on the season.
An ascending team to watch in the NHL this season, there’s a chance the Sens could surprise a lot of people in 2025-26. There wasn’t a lot of movement in free agency for Ottawa this year, outside of Anton Forsberg and Adam Gaudette, but both guys were getting older and it’s not that much of a loss — relatively speaking. The wild card for the Sens is Dylan Cozens, who Ottawa picked up via trade last year from Buffalo. If the Senators can be the ones to unlock the former 7th overall pick he’ll be a massive boost.
The Jets had an absolutely magic regular season in 2024-25, and should have gone much deeper had Connor Hellebuyck not turned into a pumpkin in the playoffs. This year is another story though with Winnipeg getting wrecked in free agency, losing Nikolaj Ehlers, Brandon Tanev, and Mason Appleton without finding solid replacements. It’s going to be a rough year in Winnipeg based on their performance a year ago.
Moving on from coach Peter Laviolette wasn’t necessarily a bad move, but ditching him for Mike Sullivan is a weird decision. The Rangers are in a pseudo rebuild as they traded away K’Andre Miller to the Hurricanes, and signed Vladislav Gavrikov to a big-money extension to fill the void. With key skaters getting older it will be on guys like Alexis Lafrenière to step up and become elite players. That won’t happen this season, and we’ll need to wait to see if this team can surprise.
There’s decidedly less hyper surrounding the Leafs this season than there normally is. Losing Mitch Marner in free agency was a colossal gut punch, despite the disdain for his lack of toughness in the playoffs by fans. There is no doubt this Leafs team is worse than past iterations which have struggled in the playoffs, so why assume anything will change? Auston Matthews and Matthew Nylander are fantastic players, but the depth in Toronto simply isn’t good enough for a run.
The Kings find themselves on the verge of a new era with Anže Kopitar announcing his retirement after the 2025-26 season. One of the league’s best two-way centers over the course of his 20 year career, the Kings just don’t have the firepower this season unless someone is willing to step up and become the leader this team needs. Quinton Byfield has a shot, but a series of draft whiffs from 2015 onwards have left the cupboards too bare. Nothing would be cooler than seeing the Kings make a run for Anže, but it’s an outside chance.
The Devils had really hoped to land Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency, but ultimately fell short. That’s a bit of an issue because they’re lacking top-end talent needed to keep them in the mix atop the Eastern Conference, and that makes it difficult to see how they’re going to get past some of the better teams in the playoffs. This is a franchise still putting together a sustainable, winning roster — but there’s a lot to really like about what they’re doing.
Tampa is a very good team trapped in an absolutely stacked Eastern Conference, and like their brethren they struggle to match Florida in toughness. That puts them a little further down the ranks, because they unfavorably match up with both the Panthers and Hurricanes, needing more two-way forwards and fewer finesse scorers to stack up well.
The Stars should be a favorite on paper, but there’s still something this team is lacking in the intangible department. Dallas is a team with a bad propensity to play soft when games matter, but that could be ameliorated if Mikko Rantanen steps up and returns to being a 100 point player. Toughness is what this team really needs, and that’s the element they have to find.
There might not be a more fascinating team this year than the Golden Knights. Up to this point the team has operated as a monolith, with Jack Eichel’s brilliance being pared with a bunch of really good, but not great players. That changes now Mitch Marner has arrived. If Marner can be that second elite player Vegas have been missing then there’s a chance for them to have a mammoth season. Goaltending is still an issue, but there’s enough skating talent to give this team a big shot.
It’s officially go time for the Edmonton Oilers. Connor McDavid signed a two-year deal that was truly one of the best things for the NHL. It keeps McDavid on the team that proved it can get to a cup, and ensured we didn’t see him go to a stacked tax haven. There’s a finite limit on how long McDavid is prepared to wait though, and it’s time for the Oilers to drop the hammer. They have two years to win a cup. There has never been more pressure on an NHL team in the modern era. This season might be difficult, but with an expanding salary cap there’s a real chance this team could make big moves at the deadline and put it all together.
Another year, another high ranking for the Hurricanes. The only problem Carolina has is running into the Panthers in the playoffs, and whether Rod Brind’Amour’s style of hockey can compete. Losing Rantanen after the trade last season was the second big let down in two years as the Canes keep looking for their final piece, but they swung for the fences in free agency with two huge additions in Nikolaj Ehlers and K’Andre Miller. If those moves pan out then the Hurricanes might make it past Florida this year.
When you have Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar on your roster you’re always going to have a shot. Sure, this team is still reworking a little after losing Mikko Rantanen last year, but Martin Necas was a solid addition in the trade and they have a deep prospect pool. McKinnon is the best player in the NHL not named “Connor McDavid,” and his unreal ability to make everyone around him better will make this team a contender.
The Panthers fall into this spot until they give people a reason to think otherwise. This team is essentially running back it’s roster from a year ago, but this time they enter with a full season of Brad Marchand, and hopefully a healthy year from Matthew Tkachuk. The breaking point seems to be how long Sergei Bobrovski can last in goal, but he assuaged those fears last season. This is a team that has it all figured out, and it’s on the rest of the NHL to catch up.
