We’ve made it! Week 18 of the NFL season is here and soon the playoffs will commence. But, we do have a few loose ends to tie up before we get to all that. We have the bulk of the teams destined for the playoffs already known, but there are a few stragglers and of course the dreaded jockeying for playoffs seeding. Guessing what NFL coaches will do is not something you want to make a living off of. But, we should be able to narrow this down enough to have a good idea as to who needs to win, who wants to win, and who doesn’t care if they win.
Bookmark this post, as we will continue to update as news comes in.
Teams who will play all out
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Saturday, 4:30 PM ET)
The Falcons gave the Buccaneers some late Christmas coal in their stocking by beating the Rams in Week 17. If the Falcons win this week over the Saints, the Buccaneers are eliminated from the playoffs even if they beat the Panthers on Saturday. The good news for us playing fantasy is that the NFL made that scenario moot with the Saturday game. Both teams will play for the win. If the Panthers win, they win the division and the playoff spot. If the Bucs win, they have to wait for the winner of the Falcons-Saints to decide the NFC South champion between the Panthers and Bucs.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET)
This game isn’t as desperate as win and in, but whoever wins will get the No. 1 seed in the NFC and whoever loses will fall to the No. 5 seed. This one is pretty cut and dry and both teams will play their starters in hopes for a win.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 8:20 PM ET)
The Steelers blew a chance to wrap up the AFC North as they laid an egg against the Browns in Week 17. The Ravens won their game against the Packers, making this matchup for all the marbles. Whoever wins, wins the North, the No. 4 seed, and the only playoff spot left in the AFC.
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
The Chargers have already announced they are resting Justin Herbert. The Broncos on the other hand need a win to get the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They can still get that No. 1 seed if they lose and the Jaguars and Patriots both lose, but they won’t leave that one up for chance. They should play their starters until the game is in hand.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
The Dolphins have nothing to play for, but the Patriots could finish with the 1, 2, or 3 seed in the AFC. To get the No. 1 seed they will need to win and for the Broncos to lose to the Chargers who are resting Herbert. If the Broncos win, the Patriots just need to beat the Dolphins to get the No. 2 seed. They could also lose and as long as the Jaguars lose, they’d still get the No. 2 seed. If they lose and both the Jaguars and Broncos win, then they end up with the No. 3 seed.
The Patriots should want that No. 2 seed enough to play all out.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 PM ET)
The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention for a while now and a loss can only help their draft position. The Jaguars on the other hand have come on like gangbusters and even have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed with a win. Unfortunately, the Chargers going with Trey Lance over Justin Herbert and the Patriots getting a relatively easy matchup with the Dolphins likely throws a wrench in those plans, as they’d need both teams to lose to get that coveted 1 seed.
The Jaguars do have to beat the Titans if they want to secure the AFC South title over the Texans, and the No. 3 seed though. And, a win of course gives them a shot at the No. 1 and 2 seeds if the Broncos or Patriots were to falter. They theoretically could fall all the way to the No. 7 seed with a loss. So they’re playing to win.
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 PM ET)
The Colts have been eliminated and will give rookie quarterback Riley Leonard the start over Phillip Rivers. The Texans have a wide variety of seedings possible between the No. 3 seed and the No. 7 seed. A win and a Jaguars loss to the Titans would give them the AFC South title and the No. 3 seed. A win secures them the No. 5 seed if the Jaguars win, while a loss could knock them down to the No. 6 or 7 seeds. These scenarios should be enough for them to do everything they can to win this week.
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
If the Bears win, they get the No. 2 seed. If they lose and the Eagles win, they get the No. 3 seed. Head coach Ben Johnson appeared adamant that they would play to win after their loss to the 49ers. A win and they face the Packers in the first round of the playoffs. If they lose, they’ll get the No. 3 seed and either face the 49ers or Rams at home. I’d expect them to play to win, but if news changes, we’ll update this post.
Will they or won’t they?
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
The Eagles and Bears are tied together this week as they both hope to grab the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Bears have the inside track, as a win gives them the No. 2 seed, while the Eagles need a win and for the Bears to lose. When asked, head coach Nick Sirianni was non-committal as to if anyone would rest. The Eagles are guaranteed the No. 3 seed if they lose and/or the Bears win, but the No. 2 seed is worth playing for if they want.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
The Jets have been out of contention for a while now and need a loss to keep or better their current No. 3 pick. The Bills currently have the final playoff seed at No. 7, but could move up to No. 5 or 6 with a win. To move up to the No. 5 seed they’ll need to win and for the Texans and Chargers to lose. To get the No. 6 seed they’ll need to win and have one of the Texans or Chargers lose.
At this point we’re waiting on head coach Sean McDermott to give us more intel on if he’ll play starters, but we do know all world QB Josh Allen isn’t 100% right now and beating the Jets isn’t exactly that tough. If I were them, I’d rest Allen. And at this point I wouldn’t want to trust Bills starters in fantasy games.
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
Head coach Sean McVay says his starters will play this week, but there isn’t a whole lot to play for. If they win and the 49ers lose, they’d get the No. 5 seed. All other scenarios end them with the No. 6 seed. I could see McVay giving his starters a half and then shutting things down. I’d rather not rely on Rams players this week if I can help it.
Teams who will rest their starters
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Jim Harbaugh announced that Trey Lance would get the start in Week 18 against the Broncos, which likely means other starters should see rest or limited work as well. But, even if all the other starters were a go, Lance is going to have a hell of a time against the Broncos defense in Denver.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed, so they will rest key starters.
