NFL playoff picture: What the Bills win over the Patriots means for AFC standings

Postgame update: Buffalo’s 35-31 win means the Patriots will not clinch the AFC East today, and the Bills are still alive in the division.

4 p.m. window update: The Broncos beat the Packers, which moves them one game up on the Patriots for the conference lead.

Old AFC East rivals meet again on Sunday, with the New England Patriots hosting the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium.

For one team, this is a “hat and t-shirt” game, as the Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win over the Bills.

But there are big postseason implications for both teams. Let’s dive into the various scenarios to see just what is at stake Sunday in this game.

Buffalo Bills playoff picture

We start with the Bills, who enter Week 15 with a 9-4 record, two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Having already lost the previous meeting, Buffalo is at risk of being eliminated from AFC East title contention with a loss.

However, they are still in a good position when it comes to a playoff spot, even if they lose. Right now, the Bills are in the No. 6 seed. But even if they lose to New England, they will only fall as far as No. 7, and that is true if the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Los Angeles Chargers — all teams fighting for Wild Card spots — win as well this weekend.

In that scenario, Buffalo would close to within one game of the Patriots in the AFC East, with games against the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Jets remaining. New England has games against the Baltimore Ravens, the Jets, and the Miami Dolphins left on their schedule.

And as we will see in a moment, eventually the tiebreaker scenarios could shift in Buffalo’s favor …

New England Patriots playoff picture

Things are rather straightforward for the Patriots this weekend. New England is one of three teams that can clinch a playoff spot this weekend, along with the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams.

With a victory over the Bills, the Patriots would clinch an AFC East title, and a playoff spot. New England enters Week 15 with an 11-2 record, leading the division and placing them second in the AFC overall, behind only the Denver Broncos.

Buffalo enters Week 15 with a 9-4 record.

A win would improve New England to 12-2 on the season, while dropping the Bills to 9-5. Theoretically, the Patriots could lose their remaining three games to finish 12-5 while Buffalo could win their final three games to finish tied with New England. However, New England’s win over the Bills earlier this season means a victory over Buffalo on Sunday would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills for the Patriots.

A New England win would give the Patriots a season sweep of the Bills, which is how they would clinch the AFC East with a victory on Sunday.

If Buffalo wins, however, the two would split the season series. That would shift any tiebreaker for the AFC East title to the next tiebreaker, which is division record. Entering Week 15, the Patriots have a 3-0 record in AFC East play, while Buffalo checks in at 2-2. A win for the Bills would improve their AFC East record to 3-2 (with a game against the New York Jets remaining in Week 18) while the Patriots would drop to 3-1 with games left against the Jets and the Miami Dolphins.

That means the teams could finish with identical records in AFC East play as well, with the next tiebreaker each team’s record in common games. As set forth by Buffalo Rumblings, the teams could finish tied there too with matching 10-2 records.

That would push the tiebreaker to the fourth step in the process, which is record in conference play. Right now the Patriots have a 6-2 record in AFC games, while Buffalo is 6-3.

But if the Bills win on Sunday, Buffalo would improve to 7-3 in AFC games while the Patriots would drop to 6-3, finally putting the Bills in the driver’s seat when it comes to tiebreakers.

Here are the AFC standings heading into Week 15:

Here are the full AFC East standings ahead of Week 15:

1. New England Patriots (11-2)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
3. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
4. New York Jets (3-10) – e